SACTOBILLSFAN

Props are still an immature market and there's value if you have a good model. Mostly totals for me so far today: ARI @ NYJ u47.5 CAR @ ATL o53.5 JAX @ HOU u54.5 LV @ KC u54.5 PHI @ PIT o43.5 PHI @ PIT 1H u22.5

There's only so far math can take you in handicapping. I do my own preseason projections and then game simulations, but if you solely rely on the math you're going to miss massive trends like there being no defense in football so far this year. Also, tout services worth a damn shouldn't be selling picks and affecting the market, if they were as accurate as they need to be to make money, you'd keep that to yourself and bet more heavily. Just my 2 cents.

I'm fairly certain Goodell has the authority to apply it, especially to the Bills game. It sucks because I would prefer to watch the damn football game.

I guess this is why Bills -8.5 was being floated.

I have a couple friends that live in the desert that work in two different sportsbooks. 8.5 would be an absurd line, unless Tannehill tested positive which doesn't appear to be the case, which is why I asked. I've seen between -1 and +1.5 when its popped up in the offshore books which seems right.

This week was another good one, so I'm just waiting for that hammer to come down. JAX +3 Loss BUF LV o53 - Push, thanks a pant load Bass CAR +3.5 win MIN +4 win NO -151 win CHI +3.5 Big ole Loss and I bought the hook. NO DET o51.5 Win ARI CAR u52.5 NEVER A DOUBT GB -5 I was ready to punch Mason Crosby As far as this week goes, a couple of my buddies that live in desert said they've been hearing Bills -8.5 if the Titans test negative tomorrow and can re-open. Do we know who tested positive for Tennessee because I make that line somewhere in the Bills +1 territory unless Tannehill is one of the positives.

So, do we know who tested positive for the Titans? I ask because I've seen some lines floated as Bills -8.5

Bills 30 Raiders 27. Having these lockdown style protocols for road teams is a big plus for the Bills this week. They don't strike me as the partying type, but the protocols eliminate the temptations.

Turnovers are fluky by nature, so measuring a defense by them is unproductive. That being said, until they start getting home with their front 4 they won't force many and the pass rush and lack of physical play on the DL is what's getting them gashed right now.

Yeah I'm not sure how anyone can say he's playing "meh" because it's just objectively incorrect.

BUF -122 NE -6 and -5 Live bet o47 in the Bears games when they went down 16-3 (new principle play whenever ATL has a 2 score lead) CHI +4 GB +3.5 This is my first undefeated week in a long time, as I got my ass kicked last year. I'm 19-9 on the year, and now that I know this thread exists it'll be even more fun, at least until I get smoked by the House. Really like BAL on MNF but the hook sucks so if that doesn't get bet down I'll stay off. Also like u54 but I haven't bet that yet, but probably will.

I got a 7 day twitter ban for tweeting at the NFL officials verified account that Kemp wouldn't have made it out alive if there were fans, so things were going great.

Edmonds was bad, but the DL was non existent. The tackles were getting absolutely mauled and pushed wherever the guards wanted to take them. When that happens the LB corps is going to get exposed. They need a guy that can just hold his ground in the middle.

I disagree with this take emphatically. The problem is with the DL. I'm rewatching for the 2nd time, and I am no expert, but the line, mainly the tackles are getting manhandled. The lack of a pass rush is going to expose any CB. In this particular game, Goff is the absolute worst QB in football against pressure and the Bills got none, when that happens the Rams offense is going to pick any defense apart because it's designed well. They need to get to the QB.

I have never seen a QB take the steps Allen has taken in a single offseason. It's incredible and I'd say 99% of the credit goes to him working his ass off, but also a little to McBeane for picking a dude with this kind of desire to succeed. I am absolutely floored by this transformation and I have never been happier to be so friggin wrong about something.

HFA isn't a uniform number by any means and a lot more goes into calculating it than just fans. That being said, most pro bettors have moved every HFA number towards the mean. The Dolphins have historically had one of the stronger HFAs in the league, and I'd bet South Beach had something to do with that. I'd say the Dolphins probably have more like a 1.7 point HFA as opposed to the 3.7 they have in a regular year.

Born in 1984 then when I was 2 we got PCS'ed to Guam so we didn't get to watch many Bills game and even when we did I was too young to remember. We got back stateside in 1988 and my old man bought the old giant dish. My first memory is trying to find the Bills broadcast and some of the feeds being raw and never going to commercial so you could hear the announcers talking during the break. I grew up watching the good Bills teams but most of my life they've been bad. Those Super Bowl teams are still how I remember this organization as stupid as that sounds. I made a joke during Christmas, as we were all opening up new Bills gear, that this was like every Christmas we had in the early 90s. I'm just hoping it's a sign of things to come for our team.

I'm on the Bills +2.5. I made the line closer to 1 so it's an actual value play not just a homer pick. The Texans rely on explosive plays and the Bills limit explosive plays better than any defense in the league. Watson averages a full 1.2 YPA more when Fuller plays which equates to about 2 points in a game so him being out is a pretty big deal. If they don't use White to shadow Hopkins that will negate a lot of that advantage though, because I'm pretty sure I could catch passes on Levi Wallace. GO BILLS! The only reason I won't bet the Allen rushing total is the Texans are going to sit in zone all day and they get no pressure on the QB. This whole game is going to come down to Josh hitting guys in open windows. If he can do that, our boys are going to get a second playoff game this year. However, at -112 the value is ok, but you're not going to find that line anymore, they're all at -130 to -140

What a dumbass signing. This regime is full of *****.

Lots of trash wide receivers out there in FA that will fit right into this Process.

Schefter shot and buried the rumor in the backyard. So this was fun.

Not only that, the team is less talent deficient now which makes buffalo more attractive by default. They’re multiple years away from being relevant without major trades or free agents.

Yeah I’ll lose a ton of sleep knowing a bunch of people who think AB is the problem think I lack class. I’ll go ahead and side with the dude who’s boss has so much class he called his employees whiny children. Not to mention that the other guy in this equation, Roethlisberger, is at best a scumbag, and at worst a rapist, but AB is for sure the cancer in that locker room. I think maybe an organization has lost complete control because they have an awful coach and an out of touch owner.

The idiots in here calling AB a cancer obviously have zero grasp on the Pittsburgh situation. Bills fans are goddamn worst.

I've got real questions about Metcalf's actual ability to produce in the NFL. Nobody with his pedestrian college stats (regardless of surrounding cast) has really done much in the NFL. I don't like any of the WRs in the first round except maybe Marquise Brown towards the backend.