dave mcbride

Um, Burrow did the opposite of looking away from Tre White 17 days ago ... This is simply not true. He was pressured all game and sacked 4 times.

https://theathletic.com/4105045/2023/01/19/college-football-recruiting-star-system-disparity-nfl/ (paywall) This is pretty interesting although not terribly surprising. Guys who produce on offense in the NFL are by a wide margin lower-star recruits than guys who produce on defense. There's also interesting stuff about how the big-time high school evaluation industry is based in the Southeast and hence misses on a lot of QBs and o-linemen. -- 'Jacobs’ rise to superstardom is just the latest example of an interesting scouting oddity of sorts. On this year’s NFLPA All-Pro Team, none of the 11 offensive players selected had been a five-star recruit; only one of them, guard Zack Martin, was even ranked as a four-star prospect. The average star ranking of the 11 players was 2.0. It’s on the opposite side of the ball where stars apparently really matter. Of the 11 defensive players on the All-Pro team, seven had been five-star recruits and two more were four-stars prospects. The other two were three-star players, making the average 4.5. [Interesting side note: Stefon Diggs was second-team all-pro and a five-star recruit.--DM] The Athletic asked 13 individuals in the evaluation and coaching world why they think there is such a disparity in how the star system works related to offensive and defensive players. The individuals were granted anonymity in order to speak freely about player evaluation and college football recruiting. “My theory: You can disguise a good player on offense and also uplift and over-evaluate a player with an unbelievable supporting cast,” said former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, a draft analyst with NFL Network. “With defensive guys, it’s more, ‘Did you beat the guy in front of you?’ And when it comes to D-linemen, there’s only so many of those guys. It’s like with cornerbacks: There are physical requirements for those positions. You can play with a 4.6 wide receiver. You can’t play with a 4.6 cornerback.” One Big Ten recruiting coordinator echoed Jeremiah’s comments. “If a defensive player does their assignment and wins their box or one-on-one, they can have immediate impact and success,” he said. “On the other hand, offensive players are heavily dependent on scheme — and each other. Like a dynamic wide receiver is highly dependent upon the QB and O-line. The QB depends on the OL. A good running back can be neutralized if the offense can’t spread defenders to make space. “I think you can identify the talent and the traits that make them elite. The challenge is projecting the fit based on offensive schemes. Kenneth Walker’s running style was a fit for Michigan State.” Walker, too, was a curious evaluation study. He was ranked by 247Sports as a two-star prospect, the 229th-best running back in the Class of 2019. Wake Forest was his only reported Power 5 offer. In two seasons in the ACC, he was a solid back but didn’t break out until he transferred to Michigan State, where he ran for 1,636 yards and won the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back. The Seattle Seahawks took him 41st overall last year, and he’s one of six finalists for NFL Rookie of the Year. “Running backs are a dime a dozen, and it’s all about fit,” a Big 12 recruiting coordinator said, “same reason Willie Parker was a backup at North Carolina and ends up being a Super Bowl hero.” The theories about the evaluation process are all over the map — literally. “Most of that (online recruiting) industry lies in the Southeast, where the big money and interest is. That’s where most of the best defensive talent exists too, with D-linemen and DBs. Hence the Rivals and 247 guys can see and evaluate them more in the Southeast,” said FSU director of high school relations Ryan Bartow, who previously spent a dozen years covering recruiting for 247Sports and Rivals. “The best spots for QBs (California and Texas) and for O-line (the Midwest and Northeast) are seen by less in that space and industry.” The average star rankings of 11-man units also can be skewed by the fact that the two toughest positions to evaluate, quarterback and offensive line, would make up more than half of that starting unit. The All-Pro quarterback this year is former three-star recruit Patrick Mahomes.'

I agree about mugging, but I also don't mind a bit of contact. Call it too tight, and it gives a big advantage to the offense.

yep, and duly deleted!

It looks like he held the receiver before the pass was released and then committed DPI. My understanding is that DPI should be the call in those instance because it's the greater penalty. It was borderline, though, and I'm not angry that it wasn't called. Gotta let players play.

Didn't know that. Thanks.

Trust me, the Bills simply can't get home with 3.

I don't know about that ... they would have had second and goal from the 4 or 5 yard line if the refs had properly called forward progress stopped, but lots of teams fail to punch it in from there.

The loss of Miller has been huge. The drop-off in visible pressure has been really noticeable. It felt like during the Browns game that Miller was on the verge of sacking Brisset virtually every passing play. They don't have that guy now.

They blitzed a LOT -- more than they ever would against Burrow -- so it came from everywhere. In that sense, it's not an indicative game for you as a Bengals fan. Miami simply couldn't take advantage of the blitzing because the quarterback is bad.

Miami averaged less than 4 yards per passing play. That's pathetic.

The Bills defense dominated them, but because of the score too many are kinda blind to this.

Actually, the Bills utterly dominated their o-line. The Dolphins averaged a measly 3.3 yards per play (2.1 yards per rushing play; 3.86 yards per passing play) and gave up four sacks along with a large number of pressures. When you factor out points resulting from advantageous turnover-based and special teams-based field position as well as the defensive TD, the Bills defense gave up 15 points.

One of the “fumbles” was the pitch to McKenzie in KC.

Good post. I'd add Kurt Warner to the Cards too AND Favre to the Vikings, where he had one of his best seasons ever and should have gotten to the SB if not for terrible officiating and bounty hunting.

Super Bowl halftimes are a different matter -- they are way, way, way longer than regular halftimes.

This is AWESOME, @Simon. Related, go to the discussion of the bills in the bill barnwell podcast here — it starts at around the 23 minute mark:

I said this in another thread: The defense gave up 15 points yesterday — https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401438002. The Dolphins started 3 drives in FG range yesterday and scored on a fumble recovery. On the three drives that started in FG range, they scored one TD, meaning the D gave up 5 points they could have denied (inclusive of the 2-pt conversion). That’s 16 points that the Dolphins O had to do zero work for. 15 points were legit, but even three of those came after a terrible Bass kick that gave the Dolphins the ball at the 40.

The defense gave up 15 points yesterday: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401438002. The Dolphins started 3 drives in FG range yesterday and scored on a fumble recovery. On the three drives that started in FG range, they scored one TD, meaning the D gave up 5 points they could have denied (inclusive of the 2-pt conversion). That’s 16 points that the Dolphins O had to do zero work for. 15 points were legit, but even three of those came after a terrible Bass kick that gave the Dolphins the ball at the 40.

I have always disliked him because of his delivery (it’s an aesthetic thing for me), but I will confess that he’s been good this year.

He was inactive because he was injured (hamstring).

Well, I literally just implied that I hate Dallas and Washington — and I do! — so there are teams that I actively root to fail. I would throw the Dolphins and Rams into the mix (the common thread here being odious owners). I despise Miami for other reasons too (the 1970s) and of course grew to hate the Pats over the years. I would hate the Jets given their jackass of an owner and the fact that they are in the AFC East, but they are so pathetic that I can’t bring myself to muster up much hatred for them. As for the Giants, a close friend of mine who is one of the nicest and funniest people I know lives and dies by the Giants, and generally speaking the Giants fans I know are good people. And they are a good franchise that beat the Pats twice in the SB. Basically, I may have hated them because of wide right for many years, but I just can’t anymore. Ironically, the one guy who took down Belichick twice on the biggest stage is a central New Yorker (Waterloo), although I realize he’s a Parcells guy too. As for their being a lot of Giants fans in your neck of the woods, when growing up in Buffalo the most popular baseball team BY FAR there (based on 1970s Buffalo Evening News/Courier Express survey — I can’t recall which) was the Yankees. I assume they still are. The point is that throughout NY State, there is always going to a disproportionate number of NYC team fans. Lots of people from the NYC metro area end up upstate because they go to, say, a SUNY in western NY and stay. I know a few who went to UB and never left. It is what it is and I can’t really bring myself to care much. Anyway, there is no shortage of Bills fans in western and central NY.

I’ll push back a little and say he had a pretty darn good second season (2019). He wasn’t the best LB in the league that year, of course, but he was definitely above average. He struggled in 2020 after hurting his shoulder vs the Jets and had a mediocre year in 2021, but he’s been great this year. You can say they “wasted” two picks on him, but that seems unfair given that I believe he was worth at least one of them.

You realize he’s 24 years old right? Aaron Judge didn’t do a damn thing in the pros until he was 25. Edmunds came into the league so young (19) that the assessments in my view have always been wildly off base. He’s elite now, and still very young.

Bad take. He broke up a huge pass to giesecki which was potentially game changing and had two other important pass breakups too. And you’re focused on *tackles*?!?