dave mcbride

If a TD is there, you HAVE to take it. Full stop. You have no idea if there will be another chance or if a receiver is going to fumble or have a drop that leads to a tipped pass/INT or whatever. As for KC, they couldn't be stopped for most of the game -- except for the two previous possessions. Maybe a tipped ball from Mahomes results in an INT. Their receivers were bad all season. Maybe they fumble. Whatever you do, though, don't turn down the TD opportunity when it's there because it might be the last one you see.

The TD to Shakir was there. I will never fault him for that one. He hits that throw all of the time when his base is stable.

After the soul crushing miss in the Giants SB, Norwood was 62.1 percent the next season and allegedly threatened to be thrown off the plane by Bruce Smith et al after his dismal performance vs the Raiders at the Colosseum in 1991. Smart teams recognize that they need a new kicker after that playoff performance because he CLEARLY has the yips. Even the XPs are adventures. As bad as the KC miss was, he at least elevated it over the LOS. The worst was the Giancarlo Stanton-elevation level line drive vs the Steelers that single-handedly got Pittsburgh back in the game. He has to go. To paraphrase Charles DeGaulle, the graves are filled with indispensable place kickers.

Exactly.

I get that, but he was pretty fricking good in his first two seasons when healthy. In the final game of the 2015 season, he metaphorically sent Revis to the glue factory. Basically uncoverable. Of course, his career was a disappointment overall.

Sammy Watkins wants to have a word with you. Huh? Shakir and Kincaid had extremely high catch rates.

From The Athletic: “1. The Chiefs beat the Bills in the playoffs for the third time in the past four seasons. Two quick takeaways, one for each team. • What the Bills must do: Defensive injuries give Buffalo a potential out for its inability to stop the Chiefs when it mattered, but it’s an out the organization cannot afford to take. The issues on that side of the ball run deeper and will require some form of roster overhaul for the future. Thirty-five defensive players logged at least 10 snaps for the Bills and Chiefs on Sunday. Seven of the eight oldest played for Buffalo: Linval Joseph (35), Von Miller (34), Micah Hyde (33), Jordan Poyer (32), A.J. Klein (32), DaQuan Jones(32) and Leonard Floyd (31). The Bills keep getting older on defense while the Chiefs have gotten much younger. The chart below shows the average ages on defense for the Chiefs and Bills since 2019, using data from TruMedia. The averages are weighted for playing time to provide higher resolution. The Chiefs ranked fifth in defensive EPA per play during the regular season with eight defensive starters drafted since 2020. The Bills ranked seventh but are older, smaller and more injured, giving them less staying power, which showed up Sunday. (Kansas City has consistently averaged about five pounds heavier per defender on a snap-weighted basis, using unofficial player weights.) “Buffalo is an effort-pursue defense that is going to take speed over size every time,” an opposing coach said of the Bills, “so their best player is (linebacker) Matt Milano, and he’s small (221 pounds) and he got hurt. At the end of this game, when everybody wants them to get a stop and get the ball back for Josh Allen, Kansas City gets the first down easily.” Buffalo and Kansas City, unlike their counterparts in the NFC bracket, are paying top dollar for their quarterbacks. That forces them to budget accordingly for the long range. But with age comes higher salaries. Buffalo has 10 defensive players earning at least $3.5 million per year this season. Kansas City has three. The Chiefs made a calculated bet in the 2022 offseason, trading Tyreek Hill for picks and investing heavily in defense in the draft, and they made those investments count. They leapfrogged the Bills in the first round for cornerback Trent McDuffie, who was a first-team All-Pro this season. George Karlaftis, taken nine picks later, has added to an impressive homegrown pass rush. The Bills have taken some swings on defense in the draft, but without the same results. After Kansas City took McDuffie, Buffalo made a small trade-up for cornerback Kaiir Elam, who has just eight starts through two seasons. The Bills spent a first and two second-round picks on pass rushers (A.J. Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau and Boogie Basham) from 2020 to 2021, but none has been as productive as Karlaftis, leading them to splurge on a 33-year-old Miller in 2022. The Bills have many things to figure out this offseason, including what direction the offense is headed following an in-season coordinator change on that side of the ball. Defensively, they need to follow the Chiefs’ lead in reversing the aging process.“ https://theathletic.com/5215245/2024/01/22/chiefs-bills-nfl-divisional-playoffs-ravens-lions/

I rewatched that kick. It wasn't even close, and Butker's kicks basically stayed straight. Just a bad kick all around, and also suggestive of a lack of power. They have to move on from him next season. Maybe he recovers, but I really don't think you can bank on him overcoming the yips (or whatever his problem is). I'm certainly not willing to take that chance. There are going to be other available kickers who are better than him. I worried going into the game that in a close one, it'd come down to a difference between the kickers, and sadly that's what happened. Butker made both of his.

If you don't know who Nick Wright is, your life is better than it would otherwise be.

Just epic and a must-read: https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/nick-wright-and-the-shameless-clown. It is eviscerating and entirely deserved, so enjoy! (For those who don't know, DeBoer writes mostly about politics/society in a variety of media outlets and is the author of a pretty good book on meritocracy and inequality, The Cult of Smart.)

I get it, but what I'm talking about is a player the team truly believes will be that guy. Of course, personnel guys are wrong all the time, but if they DO believe -- like the believed in Kincaid last year (who I was all in on) -- you have to have the courage of your convictions and go get that guy. They loved Jordan Addison last year, and they were right about him.

Plays to scrubs can be stopped with 10 men if you're looking for it. And they appeared to be.

The call wasn't fine. If I'm KC, my view would be this: the Buffalo punter has already demonstrated that he's a liability, and if they're ever going to run a fake, it's going to be in a somewhat desperate situation when they're fielding an unreliable kicker. And KC was of course ready for it. Also, giving it to a scrub who needed to get five yards? If you're going for it, give it to Josh Allen.

CeeDee Lamb was 17th. Justin Jefferson was 22nd. Brandon Aiyuk was 25th. Jordan Addison was 22nd. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was 20th. Zay Flowers was 22nd. DJ Moore was 24th. Calvin Ridley was 26th. ALL of those slots come before 28. If they see a guy from 15 onward who can help take their space alien QB's passing game to the next level, they gotta do to what they need to do to get him. It's what's holding the Bills back now more than anything else. Obviously, it goes without saying that they shouldn't be reaching for the next Jaelon Rheagor or DeVante Parker.

Good post. With regard to WR, I am of the mind that if THAT guy is there at, say the 15-17 slot, trading up and use a bunch of capital to do it has to be done at this point. They need to give an Allen elite option who can win regularly win one-on-one NOW.

They faced a fourth down with 8+ minutes to go in the fourth. They punted.

9.3 yards per pass -- 215 yards on 23 attempts.

Yep. Bills saved by the dumbest rule in the NFL.

Shakir was wide open too.

From the BN: “Defensive tackle Ed Oliver had his lunch handed to him by Chiefs guard Joe Thuney. According to Next Gen Stats, Oliver had 10 one-on-one matchups against Thuney and failed to create a single pressure. Oliver and DaQuan Jones were held without a pressure on a combined 38 pass rushes.”

Again, February stats should be included here.

Mahomes has a lot if TDs in February. Just sayin’.

https://micahhyde.com/my-story/ "In Micah’s junior year, he earned northern Ohio first-team honors as a quarterback, defensive back, and place kicker. In addition, he was named honorable mention as a punter."

Well, they're 75-24 in the regular season in the Mahomes era, so the 8-2 mark matches pretty closely with the broader ratio: 7.5-2.4, which rounded is 8-2.

The son of a football referee?