dave mcbride

34 percent on kickoffs, but yeah, it's just an informed guesstimate. For the record, I thought it was dumb when Marv actually said it!

Yeah, snap count and play importance. Most ST plays are also entirely predictable unless there's a screw-up, which doesn't happen very often. 66 percent of kickoffs are touchbacks, and it appears that slightly over 50 percent of punt returns are fair caught. There are hardly any returns for TDs anymore (only 7 punt return TDs and 7 kickoff return TDs last year across 256 games) either -- the vast majority of points scored are the product of offensive and defensive play. Place kicking certainly adds some variability given that some kickers are better than others, and they are significant point generators (albeit reliant on the offense to put them in position). But the differences between them are pretty marginal and it explains why teams mostly regard kickers as interchangeable and never spend high draft capital on them. I'm not saying it's unimportant -- an advantage in part of of the game that comprises 10-15 percent of it can make a huge difference in a close game, and there are tons of close games in the NFL. So I'm totally on board with having a good place kicker. But overall, STs simply aren't that important relative to offense and defense. To put it another way, when you're saying that they comprise 1/3 of the game, you're clearly implying that they are of an equal weight to both the offense and defense. But that's preposterous given that teams spend just about all of their money and draft capital on players in the latter two categories, and the vast majority of plays (and scoring plays) are from scrimmage. If ST was that important, you'd see a lot more money going to ST players.

Totally depends on who the Bills have targeted and who is available at 30. If the people they like are gone, then you trade back. That's why this might go on until draft night.

He wasn't bad either. He basically played in what amounted to slightly less than 8 full games (he was injured in the first half of the Rams game, in the fourth quarter of the AZ game, and sat the second half of the last Miami game). Prorated, he would have had 66 catches for 916 yards and 6 TDs over 16 games. He's also regarded as an excellent hitch route runner (scroll down for hitch route rankings: https://www.nfl.com/news/top-3-nfl-wide-receivers-by-route-michael-thomas-reigns), so it's not as if he's a bad route guy. I just think they were wary about injuries and him breaking down. Plus I also think that they view Sanders as an ideal fit for their offense--basically a mirror of Diggs. Tough to cover both of those guys given their expansive route trees and precise route running.

The premise of this thread is ridiculous, but special teams is DEFINITELY not 1/3 of the game. It’s more like 10-15 percent. That phrase is probably the dumbest thing Marv ever said.

We don’t even have a fourth! One thing that COULD happen is the following: The Bills trade from the 30 slot down to, say, the 36th slot on draft night and get a 4th in return. They then use that 4th to swing the trade for Ertz. As Beane said yesterday, you have to be patient in these situations.

Ernie lived four houses away from me when I was growing up. I was friends with his son Chris, and my mom was quite close with Ernie's wife. His son Chris (who was incidentally adopted as a baby) has done very well for himself: https://med.umn.edu/bio/urology-faculty/christopher-warlick.

More than that. They took Ruben Gant in the first round at #18 in 1974, passing over Dave Casper, who went to the Raiders in the second round. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1974/draft.htm

Are these Cam Newton numbers or real numbers?? Engram literally cost them a game last year, and it ended up costing them a playoff spot.

We'll see. I get where you're coming from, but it is a fact that he's been remarkably injury free. In 11 years, he's never played in fewer than 11 games, and most seasons he has played basically the full 16 games (and 17 in 2019, a year when he was traded). He also had a 75 percent catch rate last season while averaging 12 ypc, which as you know is pretty darn good. It's also the highest pct of his career. Granted, it was Brees throwing the ball, but it's still very good. He looked the same as ever to me last season. Also, he was brought in by the Saints for the same reason the Bills brought him in -- to complement a true #1 (Michael Thomas) and present more problems for defenses because Sanders is very adept at handling complex offenses requiring an ability to handle a big route tree with precision.

There's always fast guys available in FA and the draft every year. I'm not going to worry about that. Anyway, the Bills are playing for this year, not 2023, and they are in fact a SB-caliber team. Sanders does more for them this year than Samuel--who they couldn't afford anyway--probably would, and also bear in mind that deep ball/bomb accuracy isn't really Allen's forte. His forte is the 35-air yard throw on a rope to a guy who burns his defender via great route running and gets a window. Diggs is probably the best receiver in the league at doing that, and Sanders is really good at it too. Sanders mirroring Diggs gives them great options, and with Beasley in the mix, they are going to be hard to defend--again.

It's far more about the receiver type we prioritize. Sanders is great route runner and an "open window" receiver. He also is incredibly experienced and doesn't get hurt. You can't say that about Fuller. I don't have a problem with either of these players, but be careful about the counting stats. Someone has to catch the ball, just like someone has to score 20 ppg in the NBA for even the worst teams. If you're a one-eyed man in the kingdom of the blind, it doesn't necessarily mean you're a great player. Stevie Johnson, who was average at best, put up 3 straight 1000-yard seasons. Then he went to a good team and the numbers cratered.

My guess is that he goes round 3 or 4, but after the misses on DK Metcalf, someone may take a chance on him in round 2. Decent college production (9 tds as a sophomore and 19.2 ypc), but nothing great. Could have been the team and the QB; the Illini have been in the dumps for a long time.

4.48 at the size is pretty solid. Assuming he can become a good route runner, he'll be a starter in the NFL at some point.

46.5 inches. My god. That’s just about 4 feet. Makes him taller than the tallest player in the league, basically, and certainly taller than any secondary player. He’s also 6’2” already. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/18/josh-imatorbhebhe-records-46-5-inch-vertical-jump-at-illinois-pro-day/ Here’s the jump:

I think you’re missing why they went after Sanders. He is one of the best route runners in the league, and the Daboll system is predicated on obtaining windows rather than jump balling it. He is a perfect fit. The Bills are a smart organization and Daboll is smart, and they’ve prioritized vet route running over raw talent. It only led to the second best offense in the league last season and Josh Allen leading the NFL in PFR’s AV stat (their version of WAR for football). I like Brown, but I think Sanders is a measurable upgrade given what the Bills do on offense. Samuel can do certain things well (ie, run), but he can’t do what Sanders does. And I mentioned elsewhere, Sanders is a winner: playing on teams that have collectively gone 110-66 and 8-5 in the postseason plus playing in 3 SBs (and in the one Denver won he was the leading receiver in the game). Also remember the bomb that Garappolo missed that could have won the SB for SF — how, in that situation, did Sanders get behind the D? Great route running.

Um ... Fisher was going to be out for the season in the final year of his contract, and Schwartz has a major back issue. Back injuries for big men are bad news. As for Fisher, he is literally worth zero dollars in the final year of his contract. Only a fool wouldn’t cut him.

They get their best player on both sides of the ball back: Hightower. He had the best season of his excellent career in 2019. When accounting for the Pats’ “additions”, he should definitely be included (along with Chung). It’s a message board with lots of topics.

From a report the World Health Organization conducted for the Samoan government: https://www.who.int/ncds/surveillance/steps/Printed_STEPS_Report_American_Samoa.pdf. Summary prevalence data for physical measures The overall proportion of those either overweight or obese (defined as BMI>25kg/m2 ) in the survey population was 93.5% and the proportion of those with obesity (BMI>30kg/m2 ) was 74.6%. For males, 92.7% were classified as either overweight or obese with 69.3% being obese. For females, 94.4% were classified as either overweight or obese with 80.2% being classified as obese. Mean waist circumferences for males and females were 104.7cm (41 & 3/16th inches) and 104.8cm (41 & ¼ inches) respectively; both of these exceed the values of 94cm for males (37 inches) and 80cm for females (31 & ½ inches) that are considered to infer increased risk of cardiovascular disease. The total prevalence of high blood pressure amongst males in the survey population was 40.9%. The total prevalence of high blood pressure amongst females was 27.5%. The mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure was 134.1 / 83.5 mmHg in males and 125.1 / 80.0 mmHg in females.

Sounds like the real issue here is that Watson was unaware of Orchids of Asia. A trade to the Patriots could enlighten him.

I like Brown, but do you really think Brown is better than Sanders? Sanders' career is borderline elite.

Fun facts about Emmanuel Sanders: He has played 11 seasons and only played on losing teams twice (the 2017 and 2018 Broncos). Teams he has played on have a collective record of 110-66 in the regular season and 8-5 in the postseason. He has played in three Super Bowls, and in the one that the Broncos beat McBeane's Panthers in, he had 6 catches for 83 yards. Indeed McDermott probably remembers that SB performance; Sanders accounted for over half of Denver's receiving yardage and 40 percent of Denver's total offensive yardage. He was also in position to have the potentially game-winning TD catch in the SF-KC Super Bowl last season (having beaten KC's deep coverage), but the throw was out of his reach. My takeaway: Sanders is a winner who is used to winning.

Whenever I make reference to a garbage time td, I’m not talking a guy’s skills up. I know your position on him!

Um ... I think you may be missing my point. I am actually agreeing with you.

Same salary as Fitz. They're basically the same player at this point.