dave mcbride

The NFL coaching system is lot more like the medieval guild system than the modern workplace. In the 15th century, a master craftsman would train his son for the profession, ensure he got into the guild, hand down the business to him at the appropriate moment, and the system would perpetuate itself through generations. The wild card in all of this is whether the son deserves it irrespective of whether he had outsized advantages in training/mentorship along the way. Kyle Shanahan is a great coach, and he is where he is because of who his father is. But perhaps he was exposed to learning that no one else gets given who his father was. But of course there's Hackett, Steve Belichick, the Reid kids, Gregg Williams's son, the Shulas, etc. etc. I'm sure I'm forgetting some. It can be infuriating, but once when understands that it has always operated like a medieval craftsmen's guild, it becomes less mystifying. The Rooney Rule cuts against that, which is a good thing.

None. It’s all on Bass.

If you want someone like that, I think Josh McDaniel is someone they should be talking to. Yes, his head coaching gigs didn’t work out, but he ran incredibly well-designed offenses in NE that adapted weekly to whoever the opponent was. And he got a Pro Bowl season out of Mac Jones. Is he likable? Maybe not, but neither is Bienemy. I also thought Washington’s offense this year was ragged and too high-risk. The sack numbers were ridiculous, and while a lot of that is on Howell, a good part of it is on the structure of the offense too.

Sounds like he’s a pretty good gambler.

If Harbaugh’s success is only short lived but they win a SB, then it’s all worth it. Quality, not quantity.

In another reality I’d put Burrow up there with Allen and Lamar, but since the best ability is availability, I can’t. He has basically effectively missed two seasons in five years: a full season (2020) and another season where he started out hampered by injury and then went down halfway through and was out for the stretch run (2023).

Surprised about the fact that there’s very little love here for Goff. I think he’s evolved into a damn good quarterback who seems to almost alway make the right throw. Plus he’s accurate. But don’t listen to me; listen to Fred Warner: https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/fred-warner-jared-goff-the-reason-lions-are-where-they-are-now

My immediate thought was that Fangio proved that his previous failures to slow down the Bills were not flukes but features of his system. Allen et al have moved the ball at will against his defenses, and there is only one real barrier to Miami in the AFC east right now: Buffalo.

I also think that a majority of teams are of the don’t-ever-draft-a-guard-in-the-first-round-because-it’s-bad-value school, which also drove his final slotting.

https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/mom-defends-gabe-davis-after-viral-video-of-argument-with-fans/article_b00f6622-ba3f-11ee-986d-7fc92471e0e8.html Apparently—at least according to his mom—he was defending Bass from a-hole fans (and yes, there are a lot of a-hole Bills fans): ‘Davis' mother, Alana, posted on X that Gabe was “taking up for Bass.” Davis can be seen comforting Bass, along with quarterback Josh Allen, in the tunnel area after the game.’

It's the hot take-ness of it all. It's clear that he's not trying to be fair-minded but to build a brand as a "truth teller to power" so he can make a good living and get to the Nick Wright level of cruelty/bellicosity that is the only thing which the legacy-media-is-dead era rewards financially. To quite SpongeBob, good luck with that. He's operating in a brutal media structure, but he's weak enough to succumb to the worst impulses it fosters because he seems to assume that he can build a career by offering the negative dopamine that depressed fan bases (Bills fans included!) wondering if their team will ever win the big one need to get through the day. The BN and the Athletic actually feature measured, balanced writers willing to weigh the good and the bad, but that isn't the way one goes about the sports analysis business in the Wild West that is the post-legacy media landscape. He's a symptom of a structural change and is probably blind to it.

They were literally decimated by injuries going into this game, and if you want to ignore that by making false equivalences with past performances without actually analyzing the real situation facing the Bills on Sunday, be my guest. It’s effing stupid analysis by analogy, but fans (and Dunne) are gonna be fans. Not all situations are the same.

This piece is friggin’ stupid. And I have my issues with McDermott. Dunne is doing the Substack-adjacent version of what Nick Wright does — accentuating all the negatives to rile up a fanbase in order to build his brand. The Bills lost to a better (because healthier) team in KC that also has a better kicker and would have lost to a very healthy Ravens team next week. It’s almost as if the Bills weren’t decimated by injury on defense on Sunday.

Wow, this is quite the screed. Definitely a crusade at this point.

Yep. I am not opposed to trading up a bit this year because this ain't 2014 and the Bills have a window to keep in mind.

No we can't. They didn't have a good play on third down (coverage; there was no plausible first down on that play) and their kicker missed an easy kick that most kickers handle no problem.

If a TD is there, you HAVE to take it. Full stop. You have no idea if there will be another chance or if a receiver is going to fumble or have a drop that leads to a tipped pass/INT or whatever. As for KC, they couldn't be stopped for most of the game -- except for the two previous possessions. Maybe a tipped ball from Mahomes results in an INT. Their receivers were bad all season. Maybe they fumble. Whatever you do, though, don't turn down the TD opportunity when it's there because it might be the last one you see.

The TD to Shakir was there. I will never fault him for that one. He hits that throw all of the time when his base is stable.

After the soul crushing miss in the Giants SB, Norwood was 62.1 percent the next season and allegedly threatened to be thrown off the plane by Bruce Smith et al after his dismal performance vs the Raiders at the Colosseum in 1991. Smart teams recognize that they need a new kicker after that playoff performance because he CLEARLY has the yips. Even the XPs are adventures. As bad as the KC miss was, he at least elevated it over the LOS. The worst was the Giancarlo Stanton-elevation level line drive vs the Steelers that single-handedly got Pittsburgh back in the game. He has to go. To paraphrase Charles DeGaulle, the graves are filled with indispensable place kickers.

Exactly.

I get that, but he was pretty fricking good in his first two seasons when healthy. In the final game of the 2015 season, he metaphorically sent Revis to the glue factory. Basically uncoverable. Of course, his career was a disappointment overall.

Sammy Watkins wants to have a word with you. Huh? Shakir and Kincaid had extremely high catch rates.

From The Athletic: “1. The Chiefs beat the Bills in the playoffs for the third time in the past four seasons. Two quick takeaways, one for each team. • What the Bills must do: Defensive injuries give Buffalo a potential out for its inability to stop the Chiefs when it mattered, but it’s an out the organization cannot afford to take. The issues on that side of the ball run deeper and will require some form of roster overhaul for the future. Thirty-five defensive players logged at least 10 snaps for the Bills and Chiefs on Sunday. Seven of the eight oldest played for Buffalo: Linval Joseph (35), Von Miller (34), Micah Hyde (33), Jordan Poyer (32), A.J. Klein (32), DaQuan Jones(32) and Leonard Floyd (31). The Bills keep getting older on defense while the Chiefs have gotten much younger. The chart below shows the average ages on defense for the Chiefs and Bills since 2019, using data from TruMedia. The averages are weighted for playing time to provide higher resolution. The Chiefs ranked fifth in defensive EPA per play during the regular season with eight defensive starters drafted since 2020. The Bills ranked seventh but are older, smaller and more injured, giving them less staying power, which showed up Sunday. (Kansas City has consistently averaged about five pounds heavier per defender on a snap-weighted basis, using unofficial player weights.) “Buffalo is an effort-pursue defense that is going to take speed over size every time,” an opposing coach said of the Bills, “so their best player is (linebacker) Matt Milano, and he’s small (221 pounds) and he got hurt. At the end of this game, when everybody wants them to get a stop and get the ball back for Josh Allen, Kansas City gets the first down easily.” Buffalo and Kansas City, unlike their counterparts in the NFC bracket, are paying top dollar for their quarterbacks. That forces them to budget accordingly for the long range. But with age comes higher salaries. Buffalo has 10 defensive players earning at least $3.5 million per year this season. Kansas City has three. The Chiefs made a calculated bet in the 2022 offseason, trading Tyreek Hill for picks and investing heavily in defense in the draft, and they made those investments count. They leapfrogged the Bills in the first round for cornerback Trent McDuffie, who was a first-team All-Pro this season. George Karlaftis, taken nine picks later, has added to an impressive homegrown pass rush. The Bills have taken some swings on defense in the draft, but without the same results. After Kansas City took McDuffie, Buffalo made a small trade-up for cornerback Kaiir Elam, who has just eight starts through two seasons. The Bills spent a first and two second-round picks on pass rushers (A.J. Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau and Boogie Basham) from 2020 to 2021, but none has been as productive as Karlaftis, leading them to splurge on a 33-year-old Miller in 2022. The Bills have many things to figure out this offseason, including what direction the offense is headed following an in-season coordinator change on that side of the ball. Defensively, they need to follow the Chiefs’ lead in reversing the aging process.“ https://theathletic.com/5215245/2024/01/22/chiefs-bills-nfl-divisional-playoffs-ravens-lions/

I rewatched that kick. It wasn't even close, and Butker's kicks basically stayed straight. Just a bad kick all around, and also suggestive of a lack of power. They have to move on from him next season. Maybe he recovers, but I really don't think you can bank on him overcoming the yips (or whatever his problem is). I'm certainly not willing to take that chance. There are going to be other available kickers who are better than him. I worried going into the game that in a close one, it'd come down to a difference between the kickers, and sadly that's what happened. Butker made both of his.

If you don't know who Nick Wright is, your life is better than it would otherwise be.