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Everything posted by dave mcbride
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The PFF "worm has turned" about Josh Allen
dave mcbride replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
@Hapless Bills Fan, it's weird -- today I checked out the PFF home site for the first time (i've always gotten there via links to various stats/ratings). It's basically ... a straight-up gambling site. Very weird. But then again the NFL spends most of its energy promoting gambling these days. -
I dunno about that .... I think it's always going to be a collective decision in such a crucial moment. It's his job as the HEAD coach to be involved in that. That's what he's paid to do. I wouldn't read too much into it. The BIlls D was great this season and destroyed NE last week. They just ran into their nemesis this week - uncoverable guys on crossers and the other qb in the league who is as good as Josh. KC has been destroying good defenses for years.
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I am rooting against Kroenke. Don't really have any hatred of the other three teams, and I will confess to liking Mahomes's game. Not that I actually like the Chiefs.
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Ha! Melvin Ingram, I mean. I have always confused their names going back to their SD days.
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It's like arguing that a game of random chance is as much fun and entertaining as the game of football. Going back to 2011, 6 of 9 OT playoff games have been won on opening TD drives and the coin flip winner has won 8 of 9 times.
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If Melvin Gordon played against the Bills every week he'd break the sack record.
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My guess is the KC game plan. They weren't going to let Knox and Diggs beat them. They rolled the dice by saying we'll let Beasley be free and simply not pay much attention to Gabe Davis. Allen took advantage and didn't force things to guys who were bracketed.
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My theory is that the coin toss doesn't matter so much in a Jax-vs.-Carolina or WFT-vs.-Giants OT regular season game. The offenses just aren't good and struggle to move the ball via the air. In the NFL playoffs, practically all the teams are good, and most have excellent QBs who can surgically dissect tired defenses. There's just a huge quality gap between run of the mill teams and a much narrower field heavily populated by the likes of Mahomes, Brady, Allen, Rodgers, Russell Wilson, etc.
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I don't know what your point is. I'm not talking about the Bills specifically, I'm talking about all teams. A Coin flip is a game that shouldn't determine the game at hand -- actual football. Yet it does.
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It's not a 50/50 chance at all, at least according to the empirical playoff results in the high-scoring era. Playing for 10 minutes is fine with me. They often play for 10 minutes anyway. Houston beat Buffalo on the last second of OT in January 2020.
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McDermott’s defensive timeouts have jumped the shark
dave mcbride replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
yep, a friend and I were just texting about this. -
I agree with this. When Watson had a Houdini escape from Milano in January 2020 - what looked like a sure sack - I had to say "hats off."
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67 percent won on the opening drive. Of the other three games, the team that got the ball first (Houston vs. Buffalo and the Giants vs. SF) won in OT. Basically, they had one extra possession than the other team. So 8 out of 9 -- 89 percent -- benefitted from winning the coin toss. How people posting on this thread who support the current rules can look past this is beyond me. It's not about just this game, although if we were the beneficiaries we'd thank our lucky stars for a lucky coin toss. It's the fact that 2/3 of of playoff games over the past decade plus have ended with only one team getting the ball and with the coin flip winner winning 89 percent of the time.
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I just think that extends the problem in that whoever has it first on a second possession still doesn't have to face an answer. I just looked it up: going back to 2011, there have been 9 OT playoff games. 6 of those games have ended with the coin flip winner scoring a TD on the opening drive (Denver/Pitt in 2011, Seattle/GB in 2014, Arizona/GB in 2015, NE/Atlanta in 2016, NE/KC in 2019, Minnesota/New Orleans in 2019, and KC/Buffalo in 2021). The non-opening TD games were NYG/SF in 2011, LA/NO in 2018, and Houston/Bills in 2019. When the coin flip winner gets it 67 percent of the time, those ain't good odds for the loser. All of this is exacerbated by the fact that the postseason features elite QBs who can dissect tired defenses in a way that Tua or Tyler Heinecke (for instance) can't.
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I will say this: the Bills got to Mahomes a LOT last night, and against a normal QB would have had a half dozen sacks. Of course, the same goes for KC and Allen. Just otherwordly QBs.
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That's a ridiculous point from Cowherd. It's the penalty you pay for not actually winning in regulation. What's most important is the integrity of the game at hand, not what might or might not happen as it pertains to seven days later. Jeez.