Estro

Stand pat and wait to sign a few UDFA's and other teams waived players after the draft. This way we can take advantage of picking up a couple of compensatory draft picks next year due to our net loss of FA's this offseason. One of those picks should be high due to the contract LeVitre signed with Tennessee. If we sign 1 or 2 more FA's during the FA period we risk losing these compensatory picks, one of which could be a 3rd or 4th rounder. I don't think theres anybody left on the open market that would be worth sacrificing a mid round pick on........do you? Bottom line is: we're going to suck this year, so don't go after short term band aids that will cost us compensatory picks next year. We need all the picks we can get with this new regime that will certainly be turning the roster over on both offense and defense over the next couple of years.

Okay so I have a few questions regarding the requirements that go into being awarded compensatory selections. I understand 90% of what goes into the awarding of these picks but here's what I'm wondering. Will Donald Jones and David Nelson (assuming he's signed) be considered losses. The reason I ask is they were both undrafted and we would have been able to keep both via restricting them as free agents, but we chose not to do so. So I'm wondering if undrafted free agents aren't considered in net free agents gained vs. lost, and I'm also wondering if the fact that they could've been retained via RFA tenders, but were not has any bearing on the compensatory consideration. Anyone who might know the facts on these fine details, enlighten me. A third question, would then be........does a player (David Nelson) have to be signed by another team, in order to be considered a "lost" FA? And a 4th question - does signing one of your own FA's (Tashard Choice) count as an added FA? I'm assuming not since I thought it has to be a FA from another team. The reason I'm asking all of this is I'm thinking losing out on Fred Davis might be a blessing in disguise when compensatory picks are handed out next year. So far we've lost - Andy LeVitre (6 years - $46.8 million), Chad Rinehart (1 year - $1.75 million), Donald Jones (3 years - $3.71 million with $4.5 million in incentives), and David Nelson (once again not sure if he counts, because he remains unsigned).................and we've only signed 1 FA, Manny Lawson (4 years - $12 million). So by my count we're in line to receive multiple compensatory picks, one of which might be a 3rd or 4th rounder due to the departure of Andy LeVitre. Then again it might not be multiple picks if Nelson and Jones don't count because they were originally UDFA.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZiCyUxIh0k

He's definitely not the "talked" about QB prospect this year, but in a class with no standouts he' my favorite QB in this years draft. I think there's a small contingent of fans who are well aware of Dysert, especially after John Murphy had Josh Norris on a couple of times from Rotoworld.com and he gave Dysert some serious props. I recall him saying that Dysert was a top 40 prospect, but this was back in early November. When it comes to judging a QB, I place a huge emphasis on pocket presence, and the ability to make plays in a muddies pocket. I think Dysert is the best of the nuch in this years class at doing just that. I'm also big on accuracy, and hile his accuracy isn't off the charts (which I though Andrew Luck's was last year) I think it is decent. I'm wondering if Josh Norris still thinks he'll go in the top 40. I believe there's a better than 50/50 shot he'll be there for our 2nd round pick, and would love to have him.

"Deers in your backyard" w/ Mario Williams Ticket selling gimmicks by Russ Brandon "High School bands will perform halftime for free!?" With Ralph Wilson "My seat has no cupholder" w/ random season ticket holder

I find it very interesting that Dominik says, "that's all he's got on those three" when discussing the 3 players he's shopping around the league for a trade. He then only mentions the CB, EJ Biggers, and the T, Jamon Meredith. I really wonder who the 3rd guy is, in light of all this Josh Freeman gossip.

Buddy Nix will never draft an OG period. His philosophy is to draft T's and convert them to G's, if they dont work out as tackles. I'm not sure Nix has drafted one OG since hes been with the team. If you remember Mark Asper was viewed more as a C by the Bills when he was drafted. You might be able to get Justin Pugh from Syracuse in the 2nd round who has the ability to play tackle.or guard, and probably wouldnt be much of a dropoff from Warmack. If we're to take Buddy at his word, which I do, theres virtually no chance a G will be considered with the 8th pick.

What are we thinking as far as the money is concerned with Leodis? I'm saying a 3-4 year deal coming in somewhere in the vicinity of $3.25-$3.75 million per year. Let's say 3 years - $11 million. Sound fair?

Remember too while cutting Fitz this season doesn't save much from a salary cap perspective ($450,000 savings) it does save the Bills quite a bit of cash, and because the Bills follow a "cash to cap" business model that cash savings means something. Also the $10 million in dead money this year would be negative, but long term it'd be good, as Fitz will be totally off the books moving forward. This means more money for the Bills to spend, from a salary cap perspective in 2014, when they'll have decisions to make on guys like........ Jairus Byrd, Eric Wood, Scott Chandler and Alex Carrington.

I always like to assess a situation based on what the Bills front office is or isn't doing in the offseason. When it comes to Fitz's situation I think there's some logic to suggest the Bills are definitely contemplating his release. If the Bills were 100% sold on keeping Fitz this season, it's my opinion that they would've discussed a paycut a while ago. Worst case scenario he declines to rework his deal and then the Bills figure out what they want to do from there. The fact that they have not even approached him yet about decreasing his pay strongly indicates that there not sold they even want him on the roster. It would be a very insulting and insensitive move for a franchise to ask a guy to rework his deal, have the player accept to do so, only to cut him a couple of weeks later. It just wouldn't be a classy move on the part of the franchise and I think that's why they haven't done so yet. It's possible they still haven't decided what to do with Fitz, but signs are strongly pointing toward a release, especially when you look how fast they resigned T. Jackson, and the rumors that they were sniffing around Alex Smith. In the end, if they do release Fitzpatrick, I think it's for the best. Sometimes a team has to take a step back before they can take a step forward and I think that might be what we are in for this upcoming season.

I still can't believe the NFL draft advisory board gave Taj Boyd a middle round grade. I think he would've contended Geno Smith to be the first QB taken in the draft. Certainly a solid first round grade. There was no reason for him not to come out. I think a lot of it had to do with the advisory board clearly giving him bad advice, if you ask me. Wished he was an option for the Bills in this years draft.

Trade away a first rounder that may very likely be a top 10 pick next year, for the 31st pick overall............probably not a good idea. I'm not a big fan of trading away future #1's unless you're getting a stud, think what the Falcons did with Julio Jones. If the Bills absolutely loved a QB and had to part with a future 1st round pick to get him, I could understand the logic. But to part with one for the 31st pick would be a head scratcher. Why not just trade your 2nd and 3rd to get back up rather than part with next years #1. For a team that has so many holes to fill I think it's best for the Bills to consider trading down rather than up.

Shaun Phillips.

The keyword is COULD. I understand they play different positions, Beatty is a LT, which is a position that pays a lot better than LG. So maybe a very good LG is worth the same money as a good LT. Beatty's deal is 5 years for $38.75 million, including a $12.5 million signing bonus and $19 million guaranteed. If LeVitre is willing to take a similar deal in the $7.5-$7.75 million per year range with similar signing bonuses and guarantees, I think a deal could maybe get done. For the record (as I've stated in previous threads), I think LeVitre is set on testing his value on the open market, and I don't blame him. It's likely he'll cash in north of $8 million per year, with guarantees over the $20 million mark. At this point I'm pegging the chances of LeVitre returning to Buffalo at about 20%, and I think the chances the Bills tag him are extremely remote, even if a deal with Byrd get done prior to March 12.

After taking a look at this site, I can envision Scott Chandler being cut if he's not going to be ready to go for the '13 season. It's the last year of his deal, and he's due $300k in bonuses and a base salary of just over $2 million. Cutting him would result in $2.35 million of cap savings, which could be used to help lure a FA tight end to replace him, or even help sign a FA at another position. I like Chandler, and if he gets healthy he's worth his pay, but if he's not going to be a contributor this season there's no sense in paying him that money to rehab. If he had a couple of years left on his deal it'd be a different story, but he'll be a FA after this season, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's a goner.

You're right that many of these contracts contain bloated years at the back end of the contract, that the players will likely never see. I think most astute teams and agents around the league probably care more about the guaranteed money as well as the money thats paid out in the first 2-3 years ( which is money very likely to be seen) I did not:ice that the arrangement of the contracts handed out to these guards are all over the map as far as structuring is concerned. Some teams hand out big signing bonuses coupled with relatively low base salaries the first couple years. Other teams hand out very low or virtually no signing bonuses, but pay out a high base salary, and guarantee the first 2 years of salary

I've seen many posters agree that the Bills must retain Byrd and LeVitre. I, too, would love to retain both, but a lot of people on this board are way off in what they think it will take to retain these 2. Howard Simon, had a nice article over at WGR550.com, breaking down the contacts of all the NFL's high end guards and it proved one thing: Anybody who thinks Andy LeVitre is going to sign a deal for $5-$6 million per year, just a couple of weeks before testing FA for the first time in his life, is out of their mind. To eliminate some of the falsehoods on this board, I'd like to take a look at the contract #'s of high end safeties and high end guards, so we can at least have a basis for the type of money these 2 will get this offseason. Guards 1. Carl Nicks: 5 years - $47.5 million, $31 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $9.5 million per season average 2. Logan Mankins: 6 years - $51 million, $30 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8.5 million average 3. Jahri Evans: 7 years - $56.7 million, $19.2 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $8.1 million average 4. Davin Joseph: 7 years - $52.5 million, $19 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $7.5 million average 5. Chris Snee: 6 years - $43.5 million, $17 million guaranteed (signed 2008) $7.25 million average 6. Ben Grubbs: 5 years - $36 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $7.2 million average 7. Justin Blalock: 6 years - $38.4 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $6.4 million average 8. Marshal Yanda: 5 years - $32 million, $16.5 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $6.4 million aveage Now we can put to bed the idea that LeVitre's agent will consider anything less than $6.4 million per. I doubt LeVitre will see Carl Nicks money, but I think his agent will definitely be pushing for $20 million + guaranteed, which would put him #3 on the list as far as guaranteed money is concerned. His agent will also push to get into the $8-$8.5 million per season range. I'd also expect his contract to be 5 years, as the two most recent high priced OG contracts have been for 5 years (Nicks and Grubbs). This way the player has a chance to get one more shot at FA before they're ancient by NFL standards. Final prediction: 5 years - $41.5 million, $22 million guaranteed ......... $8.3 million average And for the record I don't think it'll be with the Bills. Now for the safeties: Safeties 1. Eric Berry: 6 years - $60 million, $34 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $10 million per 2. Troy Polamalu: 4 years - $36.5 million, $14 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $9.125 million per 3. Eric Weddle: 5 years - $40 million, $19 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8 million per 4. Michael Huff: 4 years - $32 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8 million per 5. Antrel Rolle: 5 years - $37 million, $15 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $7.4 million per 6. Michael Griffin: 5 years - $35 million, $15 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $7 million per Eric Berry's contract is a bit of an outlier, as it came when the NFL was still forking over insane money to highly drafted rookies. I'd expect Byrd's agent to be looking for a deal well north of what Weddle got 2 years ago. Weddle and Byrd are both solid all around safeties that are capable vs. the pass and the run. What seperates Byrd a bit, IMO is his ability to create turnovers and his physicality vs. the run. He has 18 interceptions and 10 forced fumbles in 4 seasons. Weddle has 16 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles in 6 seasons. In other words, Byrd's forcing 7 turnovers a season, Weddle 3 turnovers a season. Big advantage for Byrd, in terms of negotiations, especially when you factor in Weddle's deal is already 2 years old. Final predicition: The Bills will slap the franchise tag on Byrd, because it's the most economic friendly solution for the team to retain Byrd, and I'd expect the Bills to tag him again next year if they can't work out a long term deal prior to next years free agency. That would be $6.8 million this season, and $8.16 million (120% of last years contract) in 2014. 2 years at just under $15 million is a steal for the Bills, when compared to the other deals handed out to safeties leaguewide. If they are able to work out a long term deal I'll say: 5 years - $45 million, $21.8 million guaranteed

Yes we will have a poor record. This team isnt in full on strip it down and build it back up rebuilding mode, but there are a lot of holes to be filled. So many wholes that its unrealistic to expect that theyd be a playoff team in 2013. We need a Qb, a big time receiver, a stud lb if not 2, a #2 CB, a starting quality LG(assuming we dont give Levitre the $8 million a season hes looking for, which we prob. Wont), depth at safety, and possibly a starting TE if Chandlers not ready to go. Like i said thats a lot of holes and its coupled with our players having to learn an entirely new defense and offense. Im thinking this might be a 6 win team again. If we had a shot at a stud QB in the draft, things might be different, but I dont think theres a guy liks that in this years draft. For the record, I'm still high on Zach Dysert. He's lost some luster tye last few weeks so I think theres a pretty good shot hes there for our 2nd round pick possibly even the 3 rd round, which would be a no brainer. The kids got the ability to be a francise Qb, IMO.

I've had the gut feeling for a while now that the 2012 season would be Andy LeVitre's last as a Buffalo Bill. I just don't think the Bills are going to spend big money at the G position, and I don't think LeVitre is going to give any hometown discount (do they really even exist!?). I know LeVitre will be looking to make north of what Ben Grubbs got last year, and I don't think the Bills are going to spend $7+ million on a solid guard. There are 2 other things to take notice of: 1. There is no was we use the franchise tag on him, as it's way too expensive for OL, and it needs to be saved for Byrd if a long term deal can't be worked out with him. 2. I think the Bills focused on gettig the Urbik deal done when they did, because they knew there was a high likelihood that LeVitre would be looking for more than they're willing to offer. I don't want to downplay the significance of losing a really good player, because the Bills certainly don't need to be creating holes on this team, but..................with that said, I can't say that I disagree with the Bills philosophy of not spending beaucoup bucks on an OG. It's not an overly valued position in the NFL for a reason. If LeVitre was as good vs. the run as he is vs. the pass then, maybe, I'd be more adamant that we can't let him go, but truth be told he doesn't really get much push in the run game. The priority this offseason is clearly Byrd. The dropoff from LeVitre to an okay guard like Brandon Moore (FA G of the Jets) isn't nearly as steep as the drop off from Byrd to a so so safety like Eric Smith (another FA S of the Jets.) Bottom line, is there are WAY more servicable G's in the NFL than there are S's. This is why I've been saying Byrd was of much higher importance to retain over LeVitre for the better part of a year. It was an unpopular thought at the time, but I think the Bills front office sees things similarly.

Just got the same text. Interesting. Seems to me Jones was looking for more than the Bills were offering. By releasing this to the media the Bills are basically putting some pressure on Jones' agent. Take this offer or risk making less on the open market. Im of the opinion that Jones' value probably isnt very high around the league. I think hes probably looking for $3.5-$4 mill per and the Bills are probably willing to go more than $2 mill per. The question becomes how much is Jones worth on the open market? My guess is he's a 3 years for $10.5 mill with about $4 to $4.5 guarenteed type of receiver. His durabilty issues certainly hurt his value. Had he stayed healthier he might be the $4 to $4.5 mill per type of guy his agent thinks he is.....but thats not the case.

If we still had the same coaching staff in place I'd expect us to sniff around. I wouldn't be surprised to see San Diego snap him up pretty quick. Weak o-line and Joe D has penty of intel on him.

I agree that LeVitre won't get Nicks money, but I do think his agent is going to ask for it, and I don't think the Bills will come close to offering that much. The Bills will want to pay him $6-$7 million a year, LeVitre will be looking for $8-$9 million per, and I'm doubtful the Bills will invest that type of money at the G position. And I can't say I don't disagree if the Bills decide not to invest huge money at the G position. I really like Andy, he's a great player and I'd like to retain him but if the Bills are for real about analytics and moneyball I don't think they'll go down the road of investing primo money at a postion that, from a league perspective, isn't highly valued. But the main point of my original post was to show that the money squandered on Mark Anderson last year ($8 million), will likely be the gap between what the Bills offer LeVitre and what LeVitre is looking for. And boy do I think the Bills wish they could have a mulligan on Mark Anderson, because it was a costly, costly mistake.

I posed this question last spring, knowing that both of their contracts expired in the same year. Looking at the Bills cap at the time (last spring) I thought there was a good shot we'd have the money to resign both players. Even after signing both Stevie Johnson and Mario Williams to big money deals I was confident there'd be enough wiggle room to work out deals for both Byrd and LeVitre this coming offseason. But, what happened a week or so after signing Mario Williams, put a lot of doubt to whether we'd be able to retain both: signing Mark Anderson, a career journeyman, to a ludicrous big money deal. At the time Bills fans, still coming down from their high of signing Mario, were all rejoicing....Mario Williams on one side and Mark Anderson, coming off a double digit sack season with the Patriots, on the other side, what's not to love? Well now 11 months later, there is a lot not to love. I understand he was injured for most of the season, but even when he was on the field, Mark Anderson was a total liability. The Pats knew he was weak against the run, hence the reason he wasn't on the field all that much outside of pass rushing situations. For w/e reason Nix, Wannestedt and Gailey thought he could be a 3 down player and they were proved wrong. I think it's worth monitoring Mark Anderson's health this offseason because I'm not 100% sold he'll be a Buffalo Bill come September 2013. According to spotrac.com, Mark Anderson received $8 million last season ($6 million signins bonus, $1.9 million base salary and 100k workout bonus) and he's due $4 million in cash nest year in the form of a $1.5 million option bonus, a $2.4 million base salary and 100k workout bonus. So the question becomes do you think the Bills will invest an additional $4 million in Mark Anderson for the 2013 season or cut bait and try to use that money more wisely. If they truly are going to use more of an analytical, moneyball approach, my money is on him being cut. What's done is done though so there is no sense on basking the move now, but my thought is that the squandered $$$ spent on Mark will make it very difficult for us to resigning Andy Levitre. The 2 premier guards that hit FA last offseason (Nicks and Grubbs) signed deals in the $7.2 - $9.5 million range, respectively. So, given inflation and the ever increasing contracts of players, we can fully expect LeVitre to be looking for Carl Nicks money and I don't see the Bills paying a G that type of money. What say you?

not overly impressed with Tyler Wilson. The Wilson I liked was the one that the Seahawks drafted in the 3rd round last year. Some of Russell Wilsons best attributes are where Tyler Wilson struggles the most, IMO: pocket presence and throwing accurate on the run. The best QB's in this league all share one common attribute. They can all make plays in muddied pockets. Obviously you have the Russell Wilsons and Lucks who can use their legs to move around and take off or throw on the run. But you also have the Flaccos, Bradys and Roethlisbergers, who have that keen pocket presence to keep their eyes downfield in a breaking down pocket, reposition themselves, get setuo and fire a strike downfield. Now I realize prospects in the draft thave the ability to learn and improve, but when I look at Tyler Wilson as a prospect at this very moment, I don't see that key attribute in his game at all. On the flip side, this attribute was evidently clear when assessing both Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck coming out of college. Watch Tyler's game tape, and you'll see that when he's forced to move in the pocket he looks 1 - slow and 2 - loses a lot of accuracy and power on his throw. Compare that to Nassib and I'm not wowed by him either, but I see a little bit more of that ability to keep the eyes downfield and deliver a catchable ball. And the best of them all, IMO, is Dysert. He really jumps out as a prospect when you assess his ability to create plays with his arm when the pocket begins to break down.

My #1 qb in this draft. Id take him at #8. I see he got a late invitation to the senior bowl. Ill certainly be tuned in