Estro

I'll be the first to admit I was way off on my prediction for Carrington. I thought the Browns would snatch him up quickly in FA and sign him to a deal that averaged $4-$5 million per year. It looks like I was way off. It also appears that Parker and Carrington are not happy with the contracts they are seeing, if they are actually seeing any, otherwise he wouldn't still be a FA. I wonder if it's possible that teams are concerned with his injury. I think he's a good, unheralded player, and if the Bills were to retain him (which seems unlikely) it'd really complete a very sold FA period for the Bills, IMO. Carrington would provide great depth along the DL, and would fit in nicely if a starter goes down with an injury.

I'm assuming the Bills still use the "cash to cap" salary method, so when looking at the contracts signed this offseason I think the best way to breakdown the contract value is cash spent. Byrd will receive $12.3 million in cash for the 2014 season ($11 million signing bonus, $1.3 million salary). So what did our 5 outside FA signings cost the Bills in cash for the 2014 season? Here we go: Corey Graham = $5.55 million ($4 million signing bonus, $1.5 million salary, $50k workout bonus). Chris Williams = $5.025 million ($3.5 million signing bonus, $1.425 mill. base salary, $100k workout bonus). Brandon Spikes = $3.25 million ($900k signing bonus, $1.25 mill. base salary, $1.1 million workout/active roster bonuses). Keith Rivers = $2.35 million ($1 mill. signing bonus, $1.25 mill. base salary, 100k workout bonus. Anthony Dixon = $1.6 million ($750k signing bonus, $800k base salary, $50k workout bonus). So, Total cash spent on new FA additions = $17.775 million. By the way, every FA signed has a workout bonus, which is smart business by the Bills. Even the guys that have been extended recently (Aaron Williams, Dan Carpenter & Alan Branch) all have workout bonuses. Smart business by the Bills making sure guys are showing up to offseason workouts. Seems like common sense, but it's not something they've always done. Many signees also have incentive and snap % bonuses, another smart business move by the Bills. It builds competition and makes these guys hungry to get out on the field and earn it. If it's Whaley spearheading these type of bonuses he deserves props.

http://https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XV8HA0CdLsg

We are missing Jim Leonhard, although it'd a huge question whether or not he'll even be on a teams opening day roster. At this point it looks like the Bills have 100% No shot at a 3rd round compensatory pick, and 95% shot at no compensatory picks what so ever. Meanwhile you have the Pats losing Talib and gaining Revis, yet Revis will not count against them as he was cut by the Bucs, and players cut do not technically count as FA additions. You can fully expect the Pats to have an extra 3rd round compensatory pick in '15. Not tagging and trading Byrd looks like an even sillier decision, now, because we have now confirmed he walked out the door for absolutely no compensation. Sucks.

No you're not alone. If you listen to all the hype about Gilmore you'd think he's a top 10 corner. If you watch him on game day, what you see is a corner who gets beat too often, is inconsistent and has no hands to turn the ball over. He's a very average corner at this point and I hope he turns a corner this season.

Is Rivers a lock to make our roster, probably yes, based on his contract. Not looking good to get that comp. pick as of now. I don't even know that Moats would make another teams final roster even if he is signed.

There was a report that Miami told him to go out and see what his value ws and then come back to them with a chance to match. If he's not signed today, he's more than likely moving on. We'll see.

Browns and Rams expressing strong interest in Alex Carrington, according to Adam Schefter's latest tweet, as we expected.

My only reservation is Byrd has produced all 5 years, no matter what defense he was in. Aaron Williams had his struggles, and then finally seemed to blossom under Pettine last year. I understand it was his first season at S, so I hope his production continues....but Byrd was a proven commodity. Williams still has to prove he can be a producer year after year. Not saying he won't but time will certainly tell.

Very close, great guess on the team you nailed it. Only guess to get the team right. Unfortunately, nobody won, we did have 1 person accurately predict the Saints although his numbers were a bit inflated. Seems like the $9 million per year Byrd got, while a lot of $$$, came in a mill or 2 lower per season then most of us expected.

So just to get you on record on this. Would you be okay if the Bills signed a FA that they planned to use on special teams coverage only if it meant forgoing a 3rd round draft choice in next years draft? I have faith that Whaley and Co. would have the common sense not to do that.

Hell the Jags got something for Blaine Gabbert. I never bought the idea that the Bills were trying to sell, which was it's not all that easy to trade a guy. Byrd is the best or one of the best S's in the league and I don't understand why 1 team out there wouldn't have flipped us a mid round pick for his services. Now we have to hold our breath and hope we have a net loss in FA to secure a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2015 draft. I think had we tagged him and used our leverage to trade him we could've received a similar pick in this years draft, w/out worrying about whether or not we'll qualify for the comp. pick a year from now.

Byrd is gone. I'd expect Carrington to def. make a teams roster if the Bills don't resign him. Likewise for Chandler. Moats seems like a 50/50 type guy who will be in camp but not a 100% lock to make a teams final roster. I think the Bills will end up losing 2 maybe 3. Are there any other FA's we're missing?? Jim Leonhard comes to mind.

I'm not saying don't go after FA's. I'm just saying if you lose 4 guys, sign 3. And if you want to sign 4 go on ahead just make sure that the 4th guy you sign is more valuable than the 3rd rounder you're giving up in next years draft by signing him, because that is the cost. Last year Alan Branch likely cost us a 3rd, probably more likely a 4th rounder due to losing Andy LeVitre. Now was he worth it? yea he prob. was. So, I'm not saying don't do it, I'm just saying make sure the FA signing is worth it. Byrd 100% guarantees us a 3rd rounder based on the HUUUGEEE deal he got.

I think you're dead wrong. There's a dude who every year accurately predicts all of the compensatory picks on his website based on who teams signed, who teams lost and the amount of $$$ in the contracts signed. He's dead on every year. And I think signing a low end FA who will be nothing more than depth would be a HUGE mistake if it means forgoing a 3rd round pick in next years draft. At that point the front office has to ask themselves is signing this player worth trading away next years 3rd round pick because that's essentially what they'd be doing.

It'll be of the utmost importance that the Buffalo Bills DO NOT sign as many FA's as we lose in this years FA signing period. I think that's why it makes sense to sign a LB like Jameel McClain who was cut rather than a FA like Brandon Spikes, because a player who was cut by his team does not count as a FA signing (according to NFL rules). If we have a net loss in FA we are all but locked in to receive a 3rd round compensatory pick in next years 2015 draft, due to the monstrous contract Byrd just signed. A lot of people were able to cope with losing LeVitre last year under the assumption we'd receive a 3rd/4th round compensatory pick this year. That didn't happen because we signed Branch and Lawson, and therefore had no net loss in FA which kills your chances of getting one of the 3rd/4th comp. picks. So remember as the FA period continues.......we are rooting to lose 1 more player than we gain to lock in an extra 3rd round pick in next years draft. I hate losing Byrd, but picking up an extra 3rd rounder would be nice.

Byrd will be a great weapon for NO. He turns the ball over better than any other S in the league and better than most CB's. When you turn the ball over and give a QB like Brees a short field they turn into points quickly. This signing will be a very fruitful one for the Saints, IMO. And for everyone saying he won't see all 6 years, you're probably right, and the Saints really don't give a crap. All the guaranteed money will be paid out within the first 3 years, and this is a team that has a 2-3 year window to win another championship with Brees. Years 4-6 are just window dressing. We lost a great S today, who deserves to be paid at the top of the market, and the Saints gained one. It's really that simple.

I think there will be a handful of teams, the Patriots and Jets to name a few, that will be interested in signing Emanuel Sanders. I think the Bills like Goodwin a lot, but he got hurt last year on a couple of occasions so it wouldn't shock me if the Bills were interested in Sanders. Sanders is the type of WR that you can get the ball to quickly and let him pick up some YAC, the type of WR the Bills are rumored to be looking for in FA. Plus there's the whole Whaley/Pittsburgh connection.

Ricky Jean Francois started a total of 5 games in his first 4 NFL seasons, accumulating 33 tackles and 3 sacks over those 4 seasons. The Colts signed him to a 4 year - $22 million deal during last years FA period. The salary cap this year is up roughly 8% from last year and will see similar jumps in the next 2 years. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and teams have tons of cap space. I think the $$$ will be very free flowing in a couple of days.

1 - Last year the Patriots tried to sign Emanuel Sanders as a RFA, and would've parted with a 3rd round pick had the Steelers not matched the contract. Julian Edelman is unsigned, as of now, and there's rumors that they may part with Amendola in the coming days. Sanders would be a perfect fit as the slot receiver in NE, and I think the Pats will be quick to sign him. 2 - Jared Allen is a good 4-3 DE who wants to play for a championship caliber team. The current champions, the Seahawks are set to lose one of their DE's, Michael Bennett. This one just makes too much sense. 3 - And lastly, Alex Carrington. Mike Pettine raved about this guy last year at training camp. Even said of all the DL that Carrington played with he best leverage and would have a big role on the D in 2013. Injury got in the way of those projections, but you can fully expect Pettine to sign Carington quickly. It's a mutually beneficial signing: Carrington gets $4-$5 million per year (more than other teams would be willing to pay him) and a starting job in a scheme he knows, and Pettine buys in low on a player who knows his scheme and fits it well.

Given the way Mike Pettine spoke of Alex Carrington at last years training camp, I fully expect him to be a Cleveland Brown very shortly. Pettine was quoted saying something to the effect that of all the D-Lineman, Carrington played with the best leverage and consistency. The Browns will happily give him $4-6 million a year, with all of their cap space, and have a starting DE that is already familiar with Pettine's scheme,.

Okay I said I'd guess at the end, so here's my guess: 5 years - $52.5 million, $24.5 million guaranteed, Cleveland Browns.

I'll be locking this thread in a few hour get your final predictions in ladies and gentlemen

Sorry guys I forgot to include which team signs him. For those that already responded please include that. One more time.......need to predict contract length, contract value, guaranteed $$$$, and the team that signs him. Must hit all 4 on the nose to win the gift card. You don't have to include the signing bonus, I realized that makes this competition nearly impossible. Have at it.

I enjoy trying to figure out what the market will be for UFA's on the open market. To make things interesting I'll send a $25 Amazon.com gift card to anyone who nails it. Obviously, it'll be very difficult to nail, none the less it's worth a chance of guessing. One guess only, no second guesses, no edits (any members who second guess or edit are out. I'll close it up in a few days. And just to be clear in order to nail it ..... you need to get the # of years, total contract value, guaranteed money, and finally the team that signs him, all of them right on the nose. So a guess would look something like this (for example purposes only:) 10 years - $25 million, $10 million guaranteed - Montreal Alouettes. I'll make my "real" guess just before I close the competition. If two guesses are exactly the same whoever posted first will win. Like I said, extremely difficult, just want to see if anyone is as good as Eugene Parker! Have at it.