bills_fan

Apparently the bears matched the bills offers, per rotoworld... Bears agreed to terms with RB Kevin Jones on a two-year contract worth approximately $4 million. The Bears had talked about finding a back to pair with Matt Forte, but in the end they're settling for Jones. They matched two offers from the Bills, so it looks like they believe another year removed from ACL surgery will allow him to contribute more offensively than he did last year with just 34 carries. Source: Chicago Tribune Related: Garrett Wolfe, Matt Forte

Don't think they can be overcome; thats what is currently puzzling Geithner/Summers. They have no clue what to do. This problem is extremely complex and needs a multi-prong solution, just to stabilize. Understand that the boom/bust business cycle will always be with us and is a function of the capitalist system. One big reason this one is so bad is that they kicked the can down the road in 2000-2002, didn't let the economy reset. If they did, we would have had a decent recession, but certainly nothing like the catastrophe today. I humbly offer the following suggestions... First we have to stablize the patient, that being the banking system. 1- Take $250 bil of TARP II and capitalize 5 brand new "good" banks. Locate them where the expertise is, 4 in NYC, 1 in Charlotte. IPO the newly capitalized banks into the market. Taxpayers will make money on that deal. Due to the fractionalized banking system, thats a fresh $2.5 trillion in new capital for lending and financing activities. This will help stabilize the banking system (in conjunction with #4 below). 2- Prohibit the owning of any CDS where you do not own the underlying bond. This is akin to prohibiting naked short selling in equities; its not legal in equities, nor should it be in debt. Lets understand what is happening here...lets say you can buy $10 mil of CDS on GE for approximately $200k (price is as of a few weeks ago); given margin requirements, that means you have to put up a maximum of $50k (in the most onerous margin accounts, usually much less) to effectively short $10 mil in GE bonds. The writer of the CDS then has to hedge his position or be out $10 mil, so he shorts GE stock or buys a put option, figuring he can make money to hedge his risk if the stock tanks. The writer of the put option also has to hedge, so he shorts GE. This creates massive downward pressure on GE stock. Rating agencies, using market cap in their models, then contemplate a downgrade, putting even more pressure on the stock. Multiply this by thousands, since you don't have to own the bond to buy the CDS and the stock gets destroyed. The buyer of the CDS has very little risk and the potential for a massive payoff, in effect a lottery ticket. This was not the original purpose of CDS (which are legitimate, hedging instruments for debtholders). 3- Prosecute the fraudsters. There has been a massive loss of confidence. The only way to restore it, is to let the markets know there is a cop on the beat. The US credit market is about $50 trillion (roughly). Approximately 2/3 of this is provided by non-bank lenders...pension funds, hedge funds, insurance companies etc. This is the so-called "Shadow Banking System." These are the buyers of most asset backed securities. They have been, IMHO, scammed. They bought AAA rated paper, sold by securitization banks who paid big bucks for that bundling and rating, diligenced by the originator bank on a no-doc basis, backed by Alt-A, Option ARMS on $400k homes owned by WalMart cart-pushers making $10 an hour. They are not buying this paper again. In fact, they are not buying any paper. Create an Office of Financial Fraud, run by Treasury or the SEC. Investigate all parties to this mess (including Congressmen who got cheap-o loans as a member of the Friends of Angelo program run by Countrywide). Investigate the liars on the loan applications (it is a Federal crime to lie on a mortgage application). Prosecute, prosecute, prosecute. Hell, locate the office in NY and hire only the lawyers laid off by big firms...plenty of market there. 4- Incent the Street. Not popular, but necessary. Rewrite all existing stock options held by employees at financial institutions that took TARP I to current market prices. You need people to try and fix this, who do not jump to the new banks in 1. After the patient is stabilized, some long term reforms to consider... 1- Calculate Street bonuses on a rolling 3 year basis. 2- Permit the SEC to hire uber-qualfied people at market rates. No one will work for 140k, when they can make 440k at a bank. The SEC (and Finra) misses many things because they simply do not have people qualified to understand them. The very few people who understood CDS, CDOs etc., are paid mega bucks by the banks. Let the regulators compete fairly for services. 3- Return to previous home loan underwriting standards, 20% down, no more than 33% of income etc.

Thats why the original idea was abandoned.

The original idea, purchasing the illiquid assets of the bank, was a good one, in theory. There were only two big problems with it... 1- $350 billion was nowhere near enough money, you'd need over $3 trillion to clear the system. 2- What price do you pay for the asset? If you pay the bank's marks (typically $0.90-$0.95 on the dollar), you are overpaying for the asset, by a signifcant amount, relative to market price. This would not play well politically. If you pay market (at the time, $0.40-$0.50 on the dollar, now much less), you will bankrupt the bank. Basically, the bank can hold the asset as a "Level 3" asset and mark it to a model on their books. Cutting the assets in half would have left many banks (including the big 4 of C, BAC, JPM and WFC) completely bankrupt.

I don't get this either, unless they plan on Mitchell shifting to SAM.

Hey Tim Why all the RBs coming into OBD? Could a Marshawn trade be in the works...Boldin perhaps? Thanks.

Sign Jones and Jackson; deal Lynch for Boldin? I like it.

Waters would be an upgrade over anyone we currently have on our roster.

Well thats foolhardy. I rarely agree with the NYT on political commentary, but there are some very well-researched, non-slanted educational articles. For example, the article on VAR linked by GG a few weeks ago. To dismiss an entire newspaper "no matter what" is ignorant. Disagree if you want, ignore certain sections/articles, but to not even consider an article due to the newspaper (not blog, newpaper, different standards there) in which it was printed is extremely closed-minded.

Not even close to my point

Because Japan and Germany were hollow shells, the rest of Europe was rebuilding, China was still very rural, India was closed and USSR was communist. The only place to get anything was the USA.

Be careful using glittering generalities...I'll show you several examples, in law and finance, of 24 year olds making enough to be taxed more under Obama's new plan. I'm sure there are more examples in other industries of which I am not familiar.

God bless you for that. Personally, I just don't have the time to deal with that back and forth on multiple days and at multiple times.

I guess you don't really care if part of that paycheck that you EARNED is taken away. I do. I'm happy to donate time and money to worthy causes. I don't deem ACORN a worthy cause and get resentful if they get some of my money via a stimulus bill that is followed by a massive, ill-conceived tax hike. I mean, dropped the deduction for chairties by $.07 on the dollar....WTF? Chairities will be hurting enough due to corporate cutbacks/bankruptcies, no need to futher encumber them.

Gotta be a better way though. When I bought mine, I called a bunch of Jeep dealers in the tri-state area and asked for a fax with the MSRP and their opening price, with every option and MOPAR accessory I wanted listed, including their prices. Anyone who would not do that, did not get my business. I had 5 dealerships send me faxes, I dealt with the one that gave me the best price (knowing full well my Wrangler would be a factory-order, and that they were a bit limited). When I walked in to place the order, it was akin to walking into a pizzera and ordering cheese-pepperoni-half sausage, everything had already been worked out over the phone. I understand my experience was not typical.

And, unfortunately, it has to be with Jeep (full disclosure, I own a Jeep Wrangler, 2005 that I love). What a friggin disaster story... http://consumerist.com/5162727/jeep-incapa...h-24000-in-cash

"should they ever be fortunate enough to get together in the first place."

I've seen those charts, if that happens, we're looking at 50% of the S&P 500 bankrupt. The pension liabilities alone will break them.

Just match it Buffalo, please!

No, but lets elevate our discussion a bit. Gramm-Leach Bliley Act, which repealed Glass Stegal, basically codified existing court decisions relating to the breaking down of barriers between commercial and investment banks. Essentially, since Glass Stegal was passed, the commercial banks had been chipping away at it to try and get access to the more profitable investment banking activities (which they assumed they could do better, due to their larger balance sheets). So, at the time the Gramm-Leach Bliley Act was passed there was precious little new activities that banks (commercial or investment) could do. The biggest changes in that law related to merchant banking, not separation of commercial and investment banking (which had largely been done away with via 70 years of court decisions). Now, one could argue (rightly, IMHO) that the codification cemented the need for investment banks to go public and consolidate, to create larger balance sheets to compete with commercial banks. This shifting of risk, from the partners of the bank to the shareholding public, it could be argued, contributed to excessive leverage.

Fair point, at least with respect to the 4 money centers, certain regionals and three former Wall Street investment banks.

Why would you "love it" if the banks failed?

Even Milton Friedman (one of the foudners of the Reagan revolution) has come out in support of legalization. http://www.forbes.com/2005/06/02/cz_qh_0602pot.html This would be the true depression indicator...FDR ended prohibition so folks could blow off some stress in the 30s; same thing withg the current Depression? You'd have to throw NY in there. I plan to spend some of my Obama-tax-policy-reduced discretionary income on a little weekend vacation to whichever state legalizes first.

There is a bill pending in your state to legalize outright. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/deadlineus...ion-legislation It will raise revenue, shift costs to where they are better needed and help stem the Mexican drug problem. If the Federal gov't is willing to cede authority to the states, we may be setting up a states rights case on this. If the states win, its legalized (in any state that wants it).

Kelly Noone is arguing about this point. I would venture to say that most folks on this board give to charity, both their time and money. I know I certainly do. The point is that it was your choice to give to your friend. The objection is where it is no longer your choice, but forced upon you by the government. And you have no choice but to give and they spend your money how they see fit.