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BillytheKid

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  1. Not sure how you exactly got those numbers but I did total passing attempts, total rushing attempts for regular season and playoffs. Didn’t do receiving because the QB would have touched it on those attempts anyways. I did it without including sacks and also with including sacks. In both cases Allen is far above Rodgers. without Sacks Allen score points every 14.87 touches Rodgers without sacks included is 16.72 with Sacks included Allen is at 15.60 with sacks Rodgers is at 17.69 The reason I did it with sacks and without was because I wasn’t sure if they count sacks as a passing attempt or rushing attempt already, so I did both just to make sure. Allen has better numbers even if you add his sacks to it and leave Rodgers sacks out. Allen still scores more often per touch. Mine are for regular season and playoffs but Allen would still be higher just on regular season alone also. So again I am not even sure how you came up with your numbers???
  2. Since it was an eye wouldn’t it be 1 800 SEE YOUU … in court
  3. I was just making a video about how Allen is also the ALL Time leader in most Touchdowns Per Game in the regular season and Playoffs. 2.36 per game regular season Mahomes is second at 2.31. Josh is at 2.53 I think it is for playoffs with Mahomes 2nd. Lamar is all the way down at 11th place all time regular season touchdowns per game and even farther down in the playoffs. Good post and somewhat similar to what I have been thinking about lately.
  4. Your argument that if they don’t “do this play” or they “don’t do that play” is a horrible argument. Every team can say that about every single game. Every QB has games, especially the good ones where they pull crap out of their butts half of the game for their team to win. I could go back and watch the Denver game and that Pittsburgh game and do the same exact thing for those two teams vs Buffalo and say well if Denver doesn’t do this and Pittsburgh doesn’t do that then they would have been down by even more points than they were and they shouldn’t have even scored. That’s a ridiculous argument. The fact is Buffalo did make those plays just like plays are made in every game. Buffalos offense was good now matter how much you want to disagree with it or not. Your argument is horrible.
  5. Let’s make this easy. The Bills drafted some players just like the other 31 teams did. The Bills picked up some free agents just like the other 31 teams did. No one knows how any of the teams will look with their new players until the games are played. Some of the teams with their drafted players and free agents will have a good year and some won’t. Saying any one team won’t be good or bad before the season is just talk like every other off season. Just an article that was written so he could collect his paycheck showing he did work for that week.
  6. I disagree. The Bills would have played the Eagles a lot closer than the Chiefs did. The Eagles defense wouldn’t have stopped the Bills offense. The Bills offense was number 1 in EPA last year. Nobody in the NFL stopped them last year once they got Cooper at Wide Receiver and everyone was healthy. The Chiefs offense overall sucked last year. The Bills would have scored plenty on the Eagles no matter how good their defense was. The Bills offense scored on everyone. The problem would have been the Buffalo defense. The Eagles would have scored also. So it would have come down to which defense could get one more stop than the other and that most likely would have been the Eagles. Also the Bills didn’t turn the ball over last year at all. The Chiefs had two costly turnovers to start the game which put them behind. That wouldn’t have happened most likley to the Bills since they didn’t turn the ball over and the Bills offensive line was far superior to KC’s O-line last year. Would have been a one score game either way. The difference in the Eagles game vs KC compared to the Bills is that their d-line was more capable of hurting KC’s crappy O-line and Buffalo’s d-line wasn’t.
  7. Hilarious take. You may end up being right but you seriously can’t say whoever wins a week one match up will end up being the Super Bowl Champion because of the week 1 game between 2 teams. I mean… you can say it….and you just did but that’s not a serious take. Too many more things go on during a 17 week schedule to come to that conclusion. Too many other teams and who knows who could get injured on either Buffalo or Baltimore and many more. Also because one team wins week 1 that means the other team can’t beat them in the playoffs? Could it end up affecting seedings? Sure. That’s as far as I would go with it though.
  8. Yeah I thought about that. lol… would have 100 pages of hate. If I posted it on the Commander’s site would probably have 100 pages of how correct this is. 😁
  9. I guess go look it up for yourself then. I’m just telling you what the advanced stats said. How would Mahomes get robbed? He got scored the exact same way as everyone else? He was the best Passer beating Burrow out by 1 point in that category. Josh beat out Mahomes and Burrow because of his running score. I weighted all of the passing and running to make sure each person got weighted more if they were a pass more of run more QB and based it on how much they did of each. Not saying you are wrong just wondering how he would be robbed. Also like I mentioned in there, if it was only running and passing put together and no sacks or turnovers were included then Lamar beats Josh out by 1 point as the top QB.
  10. Appreciate the feed back. Actually it wasn’t. I was trying to not come to any specific conclusion. I used a bunch of advanced stats and tried to find who was the best. Allen didn’t finish first in anyone category. I tried to use a point system that was fair. I also weighted the passing and running based on what percentage of time each QB threw the ball vs ran it so that way there wasn’t a giant one size fits all which would be unfair. I tried to make it well rounded. Obviously you could exclude certain things and get different results. I could take out everything and just use passing and Mahomes would be the best QB last year still. Because he had the best all around advanced passing stats even though people thought he wasn’t good. He actually was good overall outside things on his offense that weren’t related to him caused his regular stats to not be as good. If we just did running, Jayden Daniels was actually better than Lamar overall. So I guess it’s how you wanna look at it. I was just trying to see what the advanced stats using many of them would find with the help of AI and that’s how it worked out. Agree with you but that’s why I used advanced stats because they tell a better story in my opinion compared to just using regular stats. Anyways was a fun and interesting exercise.
  11. It’s advanced stats. Which are very different than regular stats. So it takes into account whether the throws were actually good throws and the receiver just didn’t catch it and so on and so forth. Turnover worthy plays. Not sure if you read the whole thing or not as it explains how I got to where I got with it.
  12. First off thanks! It factored in playing time for every QB. I had it exclude any and only QB’s that didn’t play 15 games or more. I went back and double checked it as good as I could.
  13. I did an experiment. I used only advanced stats and AI to find out who the best QB was. I’m making a video for it. I have all of the stats and the voiceovers down for it. Below is the script of it. i haven’t got the images for it yet. I want to get it out and finished in the next week or two. Found some very interesting things. It’s about an 8 to 9 minute read below. Let me know if you guys think there is any flaws in it. I tried to not be as bias as possible and just let the advanced stats do the talking. Everything is explained below with how I did it and the scoring. If you read it I hope you enjoy. Some interesting finds. —————————————————— This is not hype. This is not opinions. It’s execution—measured across 26 advanced metrics to find the best quarterback of the 2024–25 NFL season. No bias. No favoritism. Just pure football truth—backed by data. Traditional stats tell part of the story—but they don’t let you compare great quarterbacks with different styles. Advanced metrics track every throw’s quality, every risk, every decision. They strip out noise—and reveal what execution really looks like. I graded every quarterback across four execution quadrants: Passing. Rushing. Turnover control. Sack discipline. Each quadrant had a defined role—and a defined weight. Also each quarterback must have played at least 15 games during the season to qualify. Inside each quadrant, we used between two and eleven advanced stats—26 total. Every QB was evaluated on the same 26. The result? A 260-point grading system that rewards clean, complete execution. To score every metric fairly, we used a 10-point scale. First place got 10 points, second 9, third 8—all the way down to 1 point for 10th place. Finish outside the top 10? You got zero. And when there was a tie, we averaged the tied positions. So if two QBs tied for second, that’s 8.5 points each. One rule. One scale. All season. Passing isn’t just the foundation of quarterbacking—it’s the foundation of the Vault. This quadrant uses 11 advanced metrics, worth 110 total points, to evaluate everything from ball placement to pressure control. We begin with Intended Air Yards per Attempt and Completed Air Yards per Completion. These measure how far a quarterback pushes the ball vertically—before and after the catch. Next: Bad Throw Percentage and On-Target Percentage. One shows how often the QB missed. The other shows how often he nailed the throw. Drop Rate isolates when the receiver failed to finish. Yards After Catch per Completion helps us separate QB value from receiver value. Then we grade timing with Pocket Time and Time to Throw. Was the ball coming out fast? Was the pocket steady—or did the QB make it look that way? Finally: Pressure Rate Faced and Pressure-to-Sack Percentage. How often was the QB under heat—and what did he do with it? Passing execution isn’t just about throwing. It’s about decision-making, movement, and results. Then comes mobility—because passing might be the plan, but not every play goes as planned. The Rushing quadrant uses 10 metrics, worth up to 100 points, to capture a quarterback’s legs as a weapon. We looked at Yards Before and After Contact per Attempt. Broken Tackles. Tackles for Loss. Then we counted Explosive Runs of 10, 20, and 30+ yards. Not every run is created equal. Some change the scoreboard. Rush Directionality showed where QBs had the most success—left, middle, or right. Red Zone Rushing graded their value in short-yardage chaos. And finally: Rush EPA—expected points added—put a number on how much value they truly generated. This wasn’t about highlight runs. It was about situational damage. That’s what mobility means in the Vault. But creating yards is only half the job. The other half? Protecting them. Let’s talk about turnovers—because execution without security doesn’t last. The Turnovers quadrant used just two metrics—worth 20 points—but they carried weight. First: Total Turnovers. Every interception. Every fumble lost. Then: Turnover-Worthy Plays. Throws that should’ve been picked. Fumbles that a teammate bailed out. Because results can lie—but risk always tells the truth. Execution means protecting the ball—on purpose and by principle. Every quarterback gets pressured. Not every quarterback makes it worse. Sack Discipline used three advanced metrics, worth 30 points, to measure how well a QB avoids negative plays when the pocket breaks down. Sack Rate per Dropback graded how often pressure turned into points for the defense. Pressure-to-Sack Percentage revealed whether the QB escaped—or created his own problem. And Time to Throw added crucial context: was the sack on the line, or on the guy holding the football? It’s not just about avoiding losses. It’s about eliminating them before they begin. — But before we show any scores—let’s make one thing clear: Not every quarterback plays the same game. Some guys, like Joe Burrow, pass on nearly every play. Others, like Lamar Jackson, attack with their legs far more often. So we made the grading fair—for every style. We weighted each quarterback’s passing and rushing scores based on how often they actually passed or ran. If a QB passed the ball 93% of the time, we took 93% of their passing score and 7% of their rushing score. If someone ran 30% of the time, we multiplied their rushing score by that rate. Everything aligned with real play-calling data—not guesses or assumptions. For example: Say Burrow scored 95 points in passing and 40 in rushing. He passed 92% of the time. That gives him 87.4 for passing and 3.2 for rushing—total: 90.6. Now say Lamar scored 80 passing and 85 rushing, with a 68% pass rate. His weighted totals would be 54.4 passing, 27.2 rushing—total: 81.6. That’s just a sample to show how the formula works—not actual Vault scores. Because in the Vault, it’s not about how you should play. It’s about how well you play your game. Four quadrants. Twenty-six metrics. Two hundred and sixty possible points. Passing measured precision, timing, and command. Rushing captured mobility, contact balance, and explosive damage. Turnovers exposed risk, recklessness, and who could be trusted. Sack Discipline showed who turned pressure into poise—and who turned it into points for the other team. Each quadrant stood on its own. But together? They formed the most complete picture of quarterback execution we’ve ever built. The tape is real. The numbers are real. And now—it’s time to see Before we crown the full top 10 execution quarterbacks— Let’s spotlight the QBs who dominated each individual quadrant. Passing: The top 3 in precision, depth, and timing: 1. Patrick Mahomes (92)- creativity, touch, trust in chaos. 2. Joe Burrow (91)- footwork, ball placement, and absolute command. 3. Jared Goff (87)- Trust built production, success within structure not outside it. Rushing: The top 3 in ground damage and improvisation: 1. Jayden Daniel’s (42)- Unmatched explosiveness, elite scramble EPA, and broken tackle magic 2. Lamar Jackson (40)- Broken tackles, big plays, unstoppable in the red zone 3. Josh Allen (34)- Downhill power with red zone finishing ability Turnover Control: The QBs you could trust not to blow it: 1. Jayden Daniel’s (17)- Elite ball security, took risks without recklessness 2. Patrick Mahomes (14.5)- Controlled chaos, trusted windows, avoided traps Tied at 3. Josh Allen (14) and Joe Burrow (14)- Different styles same result: clean tape under pressure Sack Discipline: The 3 best at beating pressure: 1. Patrick Mahomes- extended plays without creating losses 2. Joe Burrow- Trusts timing, throws early, avoids disaster 3. Josh Allen- Elite sack avoidance, lowest pressure to sack percentage, and quick decision making These were the quadrant kings. But consistency across all four is what earns you a spot in the Vault. --- We’ve accounted for every stat. We’ve applied real usage weights to passing and rushing. And now—each quarterback has their final Vault Score, out of 260. Let’s count down the 10 most complete execution quarterbacks from the 2024–25 NFL season. Built on balance. Defined by discipline. Welcome to the top 10. --- #10 – Baker Mayfield (94.0) “He tightened the chaos.” Tamed the wild plays, embraced structure throws, and managed risk better than ever. Earned this spot with just enough discipline and a top-10 passing score. --- #9 – Jalen Hurts (106.0) “Dangerous legs, high-stakes tape.” Top-tier rushing impact and explosive threat—but cost himself with sacks and turnover volatility. The tape swung hard both ways. --- #8 – Jordan Love (107.0) “Started rough. Finished sharp.” Execution jumped post-Thanksgiving: cleaner reads, safer throws, stronger structure. Vault rewards that kind of growth. --- #7 – Jared Goff (119.0) “Surgical in structure.” Third-best passing score in the league. TWP rate near zero. He may not move much—but he moved the offense better than most. --- #6 – C.J. Stroud (133.5) “Second-year poise, veteran control.” Vault top 6 in both passing and sack control. Calm presence, consistent mechanics, and a decision-maker you could trust. --- #5 – Lamar Jackson (146.0) “This was Lamar in full control.” He blended rushing explosion with passing efficiency—and drastically cut back on risk. In fact, if this were only about rushing and passing, Lamar would’ve edged out the top spot I’ve Allen by 1 point. But sack discipline and turnover rate pulled him back just a touch. Still, this was his most polished execution tape in years. — #4 – Patrick Mahomes (147.5) “Less chaos. More control.” Mahomes posted elite scores in three of four quadrants, including the best sack control in football. This was a version of Mahomes that played clean, smart, and within structure—even if the weapons fell short. The wild throws were optional. The precision was permanent. — #3 – Joe Burrow (151.0) “He didn’t need the full season. He just needed rhythm.” Burrow missed time, but when he played, he passed like only Burrow can: footwork, timing, and a near-flawless understanding of pressure. Top 3 in passing. Top 3 in sack discipline. No panic. Just precision. — #2 – Jayden Daniels (152.0) “He played like a five-year vet in year one.” Daniels was the #1 rusher and #1 in turnover avoidance—with enough passing control to hold up against any QB on this list. He delivered value everywhere on the field—and didn’t make the rookie mistakes. Efficiency. Composure. And the best Vault debut we’ve ever scored. — #1 – Josh Allen (156.0) “He didn’t just fix his flaws—he buried them.” Top 3 in three of four quadrants. Allen weaponized his legs, tightened his decision-making, and became the best sack-avoider in football. He didn’t just score points—he erased mistakes. This was Josh Allen’s most complete season of execution. And in the Vault, completeness wins.
  14. I saw one guy who covers the NFL, can’t remember his name… he had Solomon as the break out player of the year for the Bills. So would be a little shocked if he didn’t make the roster. EDIT: I hadn’t read through the whole thread when I posted at first. I see in a post above me that check the mic had him as a breakout player, there was also someone else I believe that listed him as well.
  15. I became a Bills fan during the night Allen got drafted to the Bills only because I’m originally from Wyoming and an alum there. I had a different favorite NFL team all my other years. I was actually a Redskins/Commanders fan my whole life and became one as a 6 year old watching them in the Super Bowl in 1983 beat Miami with John Riggins running on them. Became a huge Riggins fan and Joe Gibbs fan and was my whole life but became a Bills fan the night they drafted Josh. I still root for the Commanders but not like I used to after Buffalo drafted Josh. Any time they played the Bills I would still be a Bills fan because of Josh and have rooted for the bills against them when they have played Main reason I root for the Bills now and they are my favorite team is because of Josh and his association to Wyoming. Once he is done playing I can’t say for sure I’ll still be a Bills fan or go back to the Commanders. I usually stick with my same team but for now I’m a Bills fan because of Josh. I have good reason though since I’m from Wyoming. I’m not a bandwagon fan just because the Bills became good. I would still root for them as long as Josh was here. Of course if the Bills were bad Josh probably wouldn’t still be here. The longer I’m a Bills fan the greater the chance of me sticking with them after he leaves but he would have to play his whole career here for any chance of that. Which I’m sure he will. I normally would never switch favorite teams but this was a special circumstance. Most Wyoming fans are Broncos fans but a lot of them are Bills fans now also.
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