BillytheKid

Stafford is tied for third with Mahomes at +500 at one book and he is 4th at +550 at another book.

And just like that Allen is number one again for MVP odds. Maye 2nd. Mahomes drops to 3rd.

You weren’t watching enough I guess. Probably best to not say anything instead of making yourself look stupid. He was the biggest difference maker on this defense from an all around piece. Having Hairston has helped in the secondary and Bishop played well today but Hoecht was getting more pressures than anyone on the team and getting sacks, freeing Bosa and others up to get sacks and helping stuff the run. The Bills can still win games but to act like Hoecht wasn’t a big piece in the defense the last two games just shows you have no clue about football.

And it didn’t matter did it? 😀

Having Hoecht gone for the year was the worst loss this defense could have in my opinion. He was the missing piece to getting over the hump. He brought pressure from many different spots and helped Bosa and Epenesa get open for more sacks. I wasn’t even that worried about the Oliver loss because we had Hoecht. Now with both of them gone not feeling good about it.

Teams just like the (Chiefs tomorrow) who have won 3 straight home games and cover the spread in all 3 of them by double digits, then have to go on the road as a very small favorite (-1.5 or -2) versus teams that have a .700 (Bills) or better win percentage, don’t usually win so I would say the Bills have a great shot at winning tomorrow. This scenario doesn’t happen very often. Public perception is all huge recency bias and the books know that and they have already shaded the line an extra point towards the Chiefs. Nothing is guaranteed but having made a living handicapping Sports for over 30 years this is a spot usually the home underdog covers and wins outright. We shall see how tomorrow goes but Bills definitely won’t be blown out. At least 95% Chance they won’t. Most likely what happens in the worst case would be Chiefs win by 2 or 3 points. Best case Bills win by 7+ points which has happened plenty of times in this scenario before. what most likely happens in most cases it comes down to a one possession game and the Bills win. Just how these exact set ups go very very very high percentage of the time historically. Bills 65% chance of winning this game tomorrow based on this set up historically. Better chance than what most of you probably think.

Here is the real data for you. Going into the Carolina game Allen had a 156 passer rating to Tight Ends and anything middle of the field. Bills also lead the league in EPA by FAR. 2nd place team isn’t close. When they throw outside it drops down into the 80’s passer rating and the offensive EPA is a negative number and drops to 21st in the league. So yes they can definitely pass, to the middle of the field. They can not pass outside. So does Brady use the Tight ends and middle of the field more? Does the defense take it away? Chiefs suck on play action and middle of the field against tight ends. Because of this I’m sure Brady will call plays throwing to the outside or run some weird trick play he likes to run instead of doing what works.

Worthy has played in 5 games Keon has played in 7 games. Worthy also stretches the field. Keon just compacts the field.

You don’t understand why they would need a vertical threat then? lol You get a vertical threat to open everything else up. Also Allen isn’t as bad as you make him out to be on deep balls, most quarterbacks miss their deep balls. Not saying Allen is the best at it but there are many reasons to have a deep threat and Allen has completed plenty of deep balls that people definitely have to respect if they have a deep threat.

I posted that video on Steve Smith in his show earlier today talking about how bad Keon is and he also talked about how bad all of the receivers are on the outside for the Bills and Josh doesn’t trust them because they don’t separate fast enough. I posted it in the “What’s wrong with Josh” thread.

Can put this here or in Keon thread but Steve explains why Josh is getting off of Keon so quick and how he actually isn’t open even though people get in the comments and say he is open Josh didn’t wait long enough. Steve explains why those people are wrong and Keon is a bust.

The only person Allen handpicked was Keon. He didn’t hand pick Kincaid or Knox. Now go get in your crib and be angry there. You sound like you need a nap.

Not sure I like that Milano and Bernard are back. With the way the linebackers that have been in there the last 6 quarters have played only giving up 12 points they did a lot better than when those 2 were in there. Of course I don’t know for sure if it was more on the safeties being bad or if Bernard and Milano were equally as bad.

Bills offensive Numbers Before Brady and with Brady as OC 2020-21 to 2023-24 season Allen’s numbers 265.75 yards per game passing 37.42 rushing yards per game 303 total yards per game 2.63 Touchdowns per game ———————————————————————————————— Brady as OC in 2024-25 and 7 games so far this year Allen’s numbers 220 pass yards per game 33 rush yards per game 253 total yards per game 2.41 td’s per game ———————————————————————————————— With Brady as OC Allen 45 less passing yards per game 4 less rushing yards per game Basically 50 total yards less per game 0.21 less TD’s per game 3.5 less TD’s per year. —————————————————- Buffalo as a team Before Brady 127 rush yards per game 141 yards per game with Brady as OC Before Brady 389 total yards per game With Brady 366 total yards per game —————————————— 14 more yards per game rushing with Brady 23 less total yards per game with Brady.