BillytheKid

Teams just like the (Chiefs tomorrow) who have won 3 straight home games and cover the spread in all 3 of them by double digits, then have to go on the road as a very small favorite (-1.5 or -2) versus teams that have a .700 (Bills) or better win percentage, don’t usually win so I would say the Bills have a great shot at winning tomorrow. This scenario doesn’t happen very often. Public perception is all huge recency bias and the books know that and they have already shaded the line an extra point towards the Chiefs. Nothing is guaranteed but having made a living handicapping Sports for over 30 years this is a spot usually the home underdog covers and wins outright. We shall see how tomorrow goes but Bills definitely won’t be blown out. At least 95% Chance they won’t. Most likely what happens in the worst case would be Chiefs win by 2 or 3 points. Best case Bills win by 7+ points which has happened plenty of times in this scenario before. what most likely happens in most cases it comes down to a one possession game and the Bills win. Just how these exact set ups go very very very high percentage of the time historically. Bills 65% chance of winning this game tomorrow based on this set up historically. Better chance than what most of you probably think.

Here is the real data for you. Going into the Carolina game Allen had a 156 passer rating to Tight Ends and anything middle of the field. Bills also lead the league in EPA by FAR. 2nd place team isn’t close. When they throw outside it drops down into the 80’s passer rating and the offensive EPA is a negative number and drops to 21st in the league. So yes they can definitely pass, to the middle of the field. They can not pass outside. So does Brady use the Tight ends and middle of the field more? Does the defense take it away? Chiefs suck on play action and middle of the field against tight ends. Because of this I’m sure Brady will call plays throwing to the outside or run some weird trick play he likes to run instead of doing what works.

Worthy has played in 5 games Keon has played in 7 games. Worthy also stretches the field. Keon just compacts the field.

You don’t understand why they would need a vertical threat then? lol You get a vertical threat to open everything else up. Also Allen isn’t as bad as you make him out to be on deep balls, most quarterbacks miss their deep balls. Not saying Allen is the best at it but there are many reasons to have a deep threat and Allen has completed plenty of deep balls that people definitely have to respect if they have a deep threat.

I posted that video on Steve Smith in his show earlier today talking about how bad Keon is and he also talked about how bad all of the receivers are on the outside for the Bills and Josh doesn’t trust them because they don’t separate fast enough. I posted it in the “What’s wrong with Josh” thread.

Can put this here or in Keon thread but Steve explains why Josh is getting off of Keon so quick and how he actually isn’t open even though people get in the comments and say he is open Josh didn’t wait long enough. Steve explains why those people are wrong and Keon is a bust.

The only person Allen handpicked was Keon. He didn’t hand pick Kincaid or Knox. Now go get in your crib and be angry there. You sound like you need a nap.

Not sure I like that Milano and Bernard are back. With the way the linebackers that have been in there the last 6 quarters have played only giving up 12 points they did a lot better than when those 2 were in there. Of course I don’t know for sure if it was more on the safeties being bad or if Bernard and Milano were equally as bad.

Bills offensive Numbers Before Brady and with Brady as OC 2020-21 to 2023-24 season Allen’s numbers 265.75 yards per game passing 37.42 rushing yards per game 303 total yards per game 2.63 Touchdowns per game ———————————————————————————————— Brady as OC in 2024-25 and 7 games so far this year Allen’s numbers 220 pass yards per game 33 rush yards per game 253 total yards per game 2.41 td’s per game ———————————————————————————————— With Brady as OC Allen 45 less passing yards per game 4 less rushing yards per game Basically 50 total yards less per game 0.21 less TD’s per game 3.5 less TD’s per year. —————————————————- Buffalo as a team Before Brady 127 rush yards per game 141 yards per game with Brady as OC Before Brady 389 total yards per game With Brady 366 total yards per game —————————————— 14 more yards per game rushing with Brady 23 less total yards per game with Brady.

Allen has a 156 passer rating throwing to Tight Ends and Shakir in the middle of the field. The problem is when he throws to receivers and mainly Coleman, because Coleman has gotten the most snaps and targets , his passer rating drops a LOT. Bills are number one in the league in EPA by FAR throwing to the middle of the field and Tight Ends and Shakir, but when they throw outside to mainly Coleman since he gets the most snaps and targets the Bills number one EPA drops to a negative EPA number and down to 21st in the league. Now that was before the Carolina game. In the Carolina game Coleman got targeted 4 times and caught 3 of them for 30 yards, 10 yards per catch. The one he didn’t catch was actually Allen’s fault. So Coleman did better in the Carolina game. None of them were back shoulder throws though so that helped. Tight Ends were targeted 7 times and caught 4 of them for 53 yards in the game for 13.25 yards per catch. I know at least one of them to Kincaid was Allen’s fault. Then he targeted Moore 4 times and Moore caught 1 of them and a couple of the others were Josh misses when Moore was wide open. He was 6 for 6 in the 3rd qtr. though and obviously didn’t play the 4th. They need Palmer when healthy on the field with Shakir and Kincaid. Then throw to the middle of the field with the running game. KC will crowd the line this week I’m sure and take away the short passing game and try to stuff the run. They will need to pass it farther down field. So hopefully Palmer is healthy or they make a trade which is seeming less likely now. Josh Hasn’t been perfect by any means but this is all Beane and Brady's fault. It’s not McDermott. McDermott hasn’t agreed with all of Brady’s calls and he let Daboll call all of the plays when he was here. Brady has just neutered Allen. Beane hasn’t gotten the best receivers. The B&B twins ruining the offense. Brady loves to run the ball too much. Allen’s numbers last year , combined with this year suck since Brady has been OC as far as passing numbers go. The BB boys holding the Buffalo offense back.

Hoecht had 2 sacks and 6 pressures in his first game. The most pressures of anyone in the game. Having him in there with Bosa, Rousseau, Deon Walker is helping a lot.

Poyer has looked good the last 2 games he has played in. 2nd half Atlanta and Carolina. A lot better than what had been going on back there.

KC plays At Bills At Broncos Colts At Dallas next 4 games. So not easy for them. Would be nice to beat them and have them lose at least one other one if not two of them.

Sorry, but disagree as well, Moore wasn’t open on that play. Not sure what you are seeing. But to each his own I guess.