harryS

Even the minor movement has been eliminated as we're back to mostly 2s and 1.5s across the board. As always, lines don't move big the way many fans think they do.

Wednesday morning and line is 2.5 (juiced) across the board. There's been the expected minor movement towards Cincy but not the drastic movement some predicted. At one point the screen did flash 3s but it was quickly bet back down to 2.5. Definitely don't see this line becoming -3 (-110), and 3.5 is out of the question barring major new injury news. Given that we are 0-4 against the spread since the injuries, I'd say that we are again overvalued due to the injuries. You should just bet the Bengals moneyline (Bengals to win outright, no spread) then. It's not usually a recommended bet when you can get -2.5 because you're eating much more juice but given your fears, that's the way to go. He's talking about betting on Cincy, not Buffalo. He doesn't want to bet $500 on Cincy spread and then have the Bills lose by 1 or 2. That's a double whammy.

You got a bad line as the spread is 2 or 1.5 across the board right now (mostly 2s). 2 isn't really that key a number so hopefully no big deal; hopefully the game doesn't end on a failed 2-pt conversion by the Bills or something like that. As for your prediction of the line moving to 3.5, I doubt it. I have already bet the Bengals so like you I think 1.5/2 is too short of a line. However, keep in mind that on Jan 2 of this year (Game 17 of last season), the Bills were also at Cincy (the canceled game) and the Bills were 2.5-pt favorites in that game. In other words, there's already been a pretty decent adjustment in the spread to reflect the results since then (including Cincy's domination of Buffalo in the playoffs). The most I could see this getting to is -3 even money (so heavily juiced on the +3 side). To go through the 3 to 3.5 is a stretch barring significant new injury news. Truth be told, even getting to 3 even is perhaps a stretch.

historically teams that play overtime on Sunday (like Washington did) and then have to play Thursday perform horribly

It's about the betting limits. The books that cater to sharps will allow them to put down 10K on an NFL side. At square books, they can get limited to $500 a bet and if they win too much, the limits might even go down more. So, yes, most sharps will have a Bovada account so they can grab a good number for $500 but the majority of their action will be elsewhere.

Nah, won't happen. Just like the Dolphins getting bet to pick'em against the Bills didn't happen. Generally speaking there aren't these wild swings in the line like many think. You have to give Jax credit for home field in this one, imo. They're already in England, they already played a game there this week (won comfortably), and they've been there more than any other NFL team the past few years. The fact that we have to travel across the Atlantic after an emotional blowout win against our hated division rivals, and Jax is just sitting there chilling, waiting for us.... imo, I give Jax the full 1.5 points for home field. And considering CRIS/Bookmaker and BetOnline are at 5.5 and Circa is at 5, then this game is considered Bills -7/-6.5 on a neutral field in America. That's a very healthy line already and shouldn't go up much more more, if any. It might even come down if some syndicate decides they're going to weigh HFA even higher than I did.

White really hasn't been the same since his previous season-ending injury. We're not losing Pro Bowler White; we're losing the opportunity for White, in his second season back from that injury, to eventually turn into Pro Bowler White again later on in the season. But that was no guarantee. Sucks for him and us though. Wish we could've played seen how it would've played out. Hopefully some of the young corners make a leap.

I can vouch for there being a preference for the Bills among sharps. That's because the sharpest books (i.e. the books whose clientele are more sharp-heavy) are at 3 or juicier 2.5s than the rest of the books. Sharp books include, among others, Circa, Pinnacle, and CRIS/Bookmaker. It's not a huge preference but the preference is obviously there. Oh, btw, there were folks on here predicting that we would get a chance to bet the Bills at pick'em / even because of public money. Never materialized, did it? Because that's just not how things work. Of course all of this is meaningless. Maybe Miami wins by 30. Maybe Buffalo does. The line's the line but the players still have to suit up and get it done.

a much lesser version of this dolphins team scored 21, 29, and 31 against the Bills last season. (the playoff game output was aided by Bills turnovers to be fair).

The goal isn't to beat Washington. Plus, criticism is sometimes best received after victory. A win doesn't mean you're perfect.

This isn't surprising. Until Tua proves it over a full season, Josh is considered the better QB. As of right now, 32 out of 32 GMs would pick Josh over Tua. So we have the better QB playing at home complemented by a defense that's been playing well. It would be insane for Buffalo not to be favorites. A decent amount of sportsbooks have already flipped this back to Buf -3 flat. (As mentioned before, Circa being at 3 was a leading indicator). So much for this line going to pick'em.

I really don't think there will be such fluctuations for the marquee game of the week (especially not the 3.5), unless either team has an awful injury report. I can see it staying -2.5 (juiced to Buf) or 3 (juiced to MIa) all week like it currently is now. IMO 2.5 is a good number. Hard to give that Miami offense the full 3 unless it's juiced and hard not to have Buffalo as a team rated at least even with MIami but more likely slightly ahead given the small sample of this season so far. (Miami might turn out to be the better team, but we don't know that yet based on 3 games). Thus 2.5 would be my number; Bills home field is probably worth 2 and then a half point to give us credit for being slightly better. BTW, for those thinking this will get down to even, Circa is the sharpest book around and they currently have it at 3. Circa and Pinnacle tend to be leading indicators for the market. Meaning the line is currently more likely to go to 3 than to go down. And again, none of this matters as to the outcome of the game. Maybe Miami wins by 40. Maybe the Bills do. It's strictly about reading the market like nerds.

Unless we have a horrible injury report, I'd be shocked if that were the case. The lowest this line can go is Bills -2.5 heavily juiced. It's unheard of for a well-known (several seasons with same HC and QB), highly-regarded team like the Bills to go from -3 to even without injury being involved. All of this is irrelevant to who will win or lose. Just saying, the line movement you predict won't happen without injuries. (I'm a degenerate gambler and should know ;-) Man, I wish this game at Buffalo were in Nov/Dec.

what percentage of zone has Howell seen the first two week? a QB can look good against one type of D and horrible against the other are the zone vs man stats freely available anywhere? thanks.

McDermott should've been fired immediately after 13 seconds. I said right after the game that McD was destined to be fired by the Bills; the only question was whether the Pegulas would waste 5-8 years before firing him, or whether they would move on right away and hopefully find an innovative, ballsy, non-choking coach. They chose to waste years. Sigh.

Does it really matter if McD should actually be 15th or whatever instead of 22nd? It's stupid to be so precise in these coach rankings anyway, and it's especially stupid for Bills fans to get all up in arms about the rankings one way or another. No, what matters is that McD will be fired within a few seasons after having wasted much of Josh Allen's prime.

can we block?

too simple, he was both BPA and fulfills a need best of both worlds

That would be an awesome 15 years, quite frankly. I'd be quite happy to root for that. We're the Buffalo Bills - why would we scoff at a Favre-like 15 year run that includes a Super Bowl win? We'd have killed for that during the 20-year drought. But really, this season was only partially about Josh's shortcomings. We have a bad OL, bad WR depth, a D that can't rush the passer / defend the pass, a bad OC, a dumb head coach, and a GM that wastes treasure on the D without improving it. I'm not saying Josh needs all those positions to be great, but he can't have them all failing him at the same time. The fact that he's a top-3 QB (albeit #3) is how we managed to go 13-3

just a difference in philosophy. to me, it hurts worse when you play great, have a team that could legitimately win it all, and then blow it with stupidity at the end. but when you just have all the weaknesses we ended up having this year, it only hurts if you were fooling yourself otherwise.

the move was to outbid the Rams for Von Miller last year. but yes, we need to improve at WR, OL, and stop investing so much in the D for minimal gains

you were deluding yourself then. the bills weaknesses were on display for most of the season. poor o-line, lack of quality receiving depth, and can't defend the pass after Von went down. last year hurt. this loss was basically anticipated. at the very least, we're not a serious playoff contender with all of those weaknesses mentioned.

i expected the NFL to give us an L, so i'm pretty happy with this outcome. we probably got better than we deserved, but even you don't agree with that statement, i don't see how you can B word too much

i wouldn't needlessly stress over this. it's already baked in the cake that he's not going to have a Brady-esque long career. as long as Josh delivers one Super Bowl title over the next decade or so, we're good. we can help him out by investing assets in the OL and WR

I tend to agree. To reiterate, the line closed at 10.5 at the Jets. Flipping homefield, it should take the line to 14. Instead the line is 9, so the oddsmakers have already adjusted 5 points. They really can't make this much shorter. I'm taking 9, and I would love to tease an 8 or 8.5 down as well if they pop on the screen.