JohnNord

I know many of us are fans of Joe B. I thought he did a very good job analyzing the Bills potential off-season needs. You can listen below but I’ll list the 10 big points: 1. Sean McDermott is going NO WHERE! He understands the fan disappointment and blames the majority of the loss on McDermott for not having the Bills ready versus Cincinnati. But he said it’s impressive with how the team overcame so many obstacles to win 14 games. It would be maddening to move on from McDermotr. 2. Frazier is staying too. Same with McDermott. Talks about how they played poorly defensively against CIN but that the defense overcame many injuries to finish 4th in DVOA and that the defense bailed the Bills out in the WC against Miami. 3. Dangerous game with Ken Dorsey. It looks like Dorsey is staying and there is danger. His 2022 season, while good statistically, also showed little creativity with a failure to adjust and break tendency. Josh Allen wants him as OC and thinks he’ll get better. BUT if he doesn’t get better, the Bills might have wasted another season. The decision to run it back with Dorsey is probably the biggest gamble going into next season. 4. Beane needs to fix the OL BIGTIME The Bills OL struggled and switched schemes throughout the season - which is not a good sign. The OL depth was tested and was often very poor. Beane will need to do a better job at finding depth. 5. No “big ticket” free agent signings Forget any big FA contracts. Beane said it’s not gonna happen and that Von is the biggest signing this off-season az well. Bargain shopping only. 6. Tremaine Edmunds has a chance of re-signing Beane and McDermott raved about Edmunds. Joe believes the market will be strong but that the Bills can find a way to bring him back. 7. The Terrell Bernard draft pick looms large Bernard was a luxury pick that couldn’t see the field - even in garbage time. He is not a replacement for Edmunds and going into Year 2, there doesn’t seem to be any role for him on the defense. Given the talent that was available in round 3 last season and the fact Poyer is likely gone, it would have made more sense to draft a safety last season to take over. There’s a chance Christian Benford could step in. Either way it seems like the 3rd round selection could have been allocated much better. 8. Devin Singletary is likely gone but could be back if there’s no market. The Bills like Singletary but doesn’t see how the bring him back unless he doesn’t get the type of deal he wants in FA. 9. Bills believe in Spencer Brown but should they? He was one of the worst rated starters on the team. Joe doesn’t know how the Bills can possibly give Brown the benefit of the doubt given to how poorly he’s played. Believes Bills will sign a veteran player like “Rodger Saffold” to complete at RT. 10. Allen does not believe in his offensive line Believes there are a LOT of issues with the OL and the Bills need to do more to help Josh Allen. The actions of Josh Allen throughout 2022 show that Josh doesn’t trust his line, resulting him to bail on plays and not get through his position. He implied that there could be more moves in OL this season.

Maybe not from Baltimore, but one of the QB needy teams will give it to him

The QB market was set to go crazy once Watson signed his deal. People thinking that contract is going to be treated like an “outlier” are crazy. That deal is going to be the standard and Burrow and Lamar’s contracts are will come close to that number, if not exceed it. Beane deserves credit for locking up Josh after 3, when you could argue that the more pragmatic move might be to wait another season to make sure his breakout year wasn’t a fluke. It saved them a lot of money in the process. Of course as the contracts are getting bigger, at some point Allen and Mahomes are going to want a new deal.

I don’t see the Bills wasting Josh Allen’s talent. They do need to give him him more on offense. This season the Bills showed a lot of faith in Davis, McKenzie, and Brown - you can argue all three didn’t step. On the OL they let Kromer talk them into signing Pro Bowl guard Rodger Saffold and he…sucked. Then you had Jameson Crowder who was injured for most of the season. Pretty confident they don’t make the same mistake twice

Meh hire

I just don’t think the Bills will re-sign him, so it does make you wonder if they could flip him for an asset. The problem with Oliver is that he can feast on bad lineman, but when he’s matched up against against a physical OL, it’s often way to easy to neutralize him. While he can have splash plays, it often comes at the expense of an inferior talent. Star was terrible and one of the worst signings Brandon Beane has made. I guess he was a good teammate and a culture guy but on the field he vastly underplayed his fat contract. When you watch DaQuan Jones this season, you realize how much bad we had it with Star

So you would re-sign Ed Oliver to Fletcher Cox money +$14M per year? Because that what it will take to re-sign him.

I was extremely impressed with how well Philadelphia played in the trenches against a very good San Francisco OL and DL. Philly probably has an even more advantageous matchup on both sides of the ball. I think they can completely pound the ball against the defense both with the RB’s and Hurts. I also think Philly’s WR’s will have a huge advantage against the KC secondary - Hurts just needs to get them the ball. Then on defense, Philly has the quick edge rushers who have the potential to give KC’s weak tackles a tough time. Plus KC is pretty beat up at every major position. On paper, this looks like Phill victory but you know how the NFL goes

He is going to be the Bills news secondary coach

He was 50th out of 50 guards in PFF. Say what you will about their grading but that is BAD

I will say that part…PART… of this true. At times Allen does need to be better with decision making. Especially when to take the man underneath rather than going for the high percentage shot. But it’s a balancing act that I’m hope he figured out soon. Also, yes Allen does leave a clean pocket at times to set up some crazy scramble plays. BUT…. The offensive line was not very good. At best they were average…at worst they were in the bottom of the league. Dawkins had a pretty average year and it’s fair to expect more of him. Morse and Bates were ok when it came to pass protection - not as good with run blocking and moving people. Roger Saffold was horrible and will be replaced and I don’t think Spencer Brown is a starting caliber RT. I’m hoping the Bills find a replacement there too. Either way, the line was the weak part of the offense and it does need to improve I don’t know if Williams was better than Bates. We’ve seen in the past that Bates can be a decent lineman. Long term, I’d like an upgrade but he’s good enough to start next year. The bigger issues are Saffold and Brown. Both were terrible

This is a bit over dramatic. McDermott doesn’t deserve to be fired, and if he was he’d have a new job in five minutes. He is a very good head coach. As far as the coordinators, I’m much more concerned with Dorsey than Frazier. Say what you will about the last three playoff losses but Frazier’s defense ranked top 5 in DVOA during the season. While the performance in the playoff sucked, keep in mind he was missed three key starters and Ed Oliver was rumored to be playing through an injury as well. Plus in the end, the defense gave up just 27 points - just 13 points after the 1st two drives. Meanwhile the offense scored a measly 10 point - the worst performance in years. That brings me to Ken Dorsey. I think overall he did a very mediocre job as OC. Very rarely did you see any creativity or plays designed to get gadget players touches. He also did a very poor uprising the pass catching backs on the roster. There is no identity on the Bills offense and that falls on Dorsey. I’m not very encouraged for 2023 with him at the helm. If anything, Josh helped cover up a lot of issues on offense including a very poor offensive line. I can see the same thing happening next year. As long as the Bills improve the offensive line, I think the rest falls into place on offense. But I think Dorsey sometimes gets pass because Josh has been so good this season I wouldn’t say Dorsey had a remarkable year. It seemed like Josh Allen covered up for a lot of his mistakes. There was no identity or creativity on offense. It was Allen doing something out of structure, throwing an amazing pass, or finding a way to get the balls to Diggs or Davis deep. Everything on offense looked so hard because Dorsey did a poor job. As far at the tough circumstances, I would completely agree though I would definitely take Jameson Crowder off that list

Singletary is 100% gone. I don’t think the Bills should invest anything significant into the RB position

What? So you are comfortable making Ed Oliver one of the highest paid DT’s? Because that’s what it will take to sign him to a second contract.

I disagree on the Eagles. I think their strengths matchup really against Kansas City. Plus KC is not going to be healthy even with the extra week of rest. Hurts is not as good as Mahomes, Allen, Burrow etc but he really doesn’t have to be in that offense. If he can hit the deep ball, which he failed to do versus SF, I think he’s a SB champion

The scheme was better, yes. The Bills also don’t have Chris Jones or as good as a DL as Kansas City does. This was the difference in the game IMO

I saw a number of fans/bloggers float the idea of the Bills trading Ed Oliver. Oliver is due to make over $10M in his 5th season which would be off the cap if they could trade him. I’m guessing that the Bills probably won’t re-sign or Franchise tag him, so 2023 is likely his last season in Buffalo. As far as compensation, I saw a 2nd and a 5th which I think would be a little high. I’m thinking more like a 3rd and a 5th The trade would give the Bills 2 more decent draft picks to try to add younger talent on rookie deals which would be important moving forward. If this is me, I would make the deal

I really don’t think so but it sure sounds like the Bills are going to start him next season. Honestly he really never has been anything better than average at RT. He’ll make an impressive looking block on a run play then get smoked in pass protection. He’s a weakness IMO

Edmunds is probably the only other one… the next closest might be Gabe Davis honestly. Its a huge problem

No… take a look at Philly’s defensive line. It’s among one of the deepest in the NFL. Suh gets the chance to play sparingly while taking advantage of matchups situationally. He wouldn’t have that in Buffalo - especially with Miller and Jones not active

I would change this a bit… first off, I would not include Diggs on this list. He was not a draft pick. 2. AJ Epinesa C- Very uninspiring draft pick. You can’t draft a player in RD2 only for his to be a JAG 3. Zach Moss D He isn’t a horrible player and he had a few moments in Buffalo. But the return they got out of a 3rd pick is so lopsided. 4. Gabe Davis B+ If we’re grading on a curve here, Davis is at least a productive WR/WR3. That’s great return for a 4th round pick. 5. Jake Fromm F Not a good pick 6. Tyler Bass A One of the better kickers in the NFL 6. Isaiah Hodgins - D His problem was that he could not beat out any other WR on the roster in 3 seasons. Going to the WR depleted NYG was a great move for him. 7. Dane Jackson - B Great return for a 7th round pick. But likely more of a depth corner than a starter. So overall, the significant picks from this draft were Davis and Bass - which means that Beane hit on one pick year. That’s not good enough This is why I always roll my eyes when people make this comparison. It would be different if Beane made the trade on draft day and passed on JJ. But that didn’t happen. He had the chance to acquire a sure fire WR1 rather than taking a chance in the draft and ending up with a player like Jalon Reagor. The deal worked out great for Buffalo

Fangio has a good defense in Denver in 2020… look up what happened when Buffalo played in Denver. Don’t get me wrong this is a good hire by Miami. I just don’t think it’s as bleak as some of you make it out to be We know all too well that when you switch DC’s, the change doesn’t always happen overnight

There’s not doubt the defensive game plan could have been better but I would disagree that KC’s players aren’t better than Buffalo - at least not on the defensive line. Chris Jones is an All Pro and at worst one of the top 5 Defensive Lineman in the NFL…if not #1. Not only does he command a double team but he can be moved to DE to exploit the tackles. The Bills were without DaQuan Jones who was a huge loss because while he isn’t Jones, he too commands a double team. Ed Oliver has shown that he’ll flash but he’s not a game wrecker. On the outside KC has a vet like Frank Clark who has dropped off but still can rush better off the edge than anyone on Buffalo (sans Miller). Even a rookie like George Karlafatis is better than most edge rushers with the exception of Rousseau. In the secondary, I’d say the corners are pretty even though the tandem of Reid and Thornhill is probably better than a banged up Poyer and Dean Marlowe As far as the offensive game plan… I agree that it wasn’t scheme well at all. A big part of the problem had to do with how poor the OL was. This is why I’m more concerned with Dorsey on offense than I am with defense.

This is 100% correct. Not sure why people are glancing over the fact that the offense crapped the bed just as bad as the defense did this game. Bills fans love a scapegoat They couldn’t bear a Cincinnati at home last week…not sure it was a given last year

It’s looking like a pretty bad pick. I don’t believe Bernard was drafted to replace Edmunds. My guess is maybe they thought he could be the 3rd LB in a 4-3? I just know he struggled badly when he saw time this season.