Beck Water

With Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman in the room, those WR meetings are NOT gonna be dull

TBH I'm totally lost. I feel like it's the NFL's equivalent of ESPN's "total QBR", something that requires so much code no ordinary human can understand it. I want a formula I can sit down with a pencil and paper and a big-button calculator and grind through I can't even figure out what the floor is for a qualifying contract. I'll stop griping now https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks Anyway, we lost Gabe Davis, who signed for $13M AAV We lost Leonard Floyd, who signed for $10M AAV We signed Curtis Samuel, who signed for 3 yr, $24M or $8M AAV but evidently he doesn't count? Everybody else we lost or signed is apparently too small potatoes. So it seems to indicate a 4th/5th for Gabe and a 5th/6th for Floyd?

I dunno, but just to temper expectations I would think any signings would take place after May 1 - or are we 100% out of the comp pick business anyway this season? I would think Gabe Davis and Tyrell Dodson would help us get something....

And with Detroit, he had a decent QB throwing to him in Goff, but he was injured and placed on IR, only played 11 games.

Right. Josh Allen ran a 4.76. Ask any of the DLmen or LB who've chased him around the back field or any of the LB or DB who've chased him down the field if they think he plays faster than that. I've noticed that - Coleman looks slow and kind of lumbering when he runs and then you notice all the guys scurrying after him . So we'll see what we'll see when he has 11 guys with NFL speed chasing him. Article on 40 yd dash usefulness: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39632786/xavier-worthy-nfl-combine-40-yard-dash-becoming-obsolete It quotes one GM, Brandon Beane:

On the highlight tape - the hurdles LOL. STOP THAT, BOTH OF YOU! YOU BOYS STOP THAT RIGHT NOW! I guess this is where sometimes folks wonder if Beane and McDermott's focus on bringing in high-character fellows holds us back. The Colts took some risks on high ceiling/big red flag guys in Mitchel and the Edge guy with the neck problems. No Riskit, No Biscuit.

FIFY

I think this is a fair take. But given the Bills picks, where in particular do you think they could have taken higher talent at more premium positions?

Not only that - he offered to share it with the lady reporter "we can go half". Smooooooooth...... I would say he's got the "handle the press corps" down pat.

I would like to know what DJ Chark has left, myself. He was a legit "fast guy" coming out - 4.31 40-time. He showed he can put up 1000+ yd season with "meh" QB like Minshew and Foles throwing to him. He had some very bad luck with a broken ankle early in the season for 2021, and then an ankle injury early in 2022 that put him on IR. 500+ yard guy the last 2 seasons despite that and a rookie QB on a bad team in CAR last season. He's only 27. On the other hand, if he still has it physically, it would be surprising he's still on the FA market, so IDK.

Gabe was on the Bills 4 years. In 2021, he had 10 receptions for 242 yds in 2 playoff games. In 2022, starting 15 games, he had 48/836 reg season plus 8/147 in playoffs and in 2023, he had 45/746 regular season. In the latter half of this year where "Josh's connection with big limited non-separating Gabe Davis detereriorated to the point of non-existance" according to you, he had 2 games of over 100 yds: Philly 6 for 105 and LAC 4 for 130. Would you like to find an example of how Josh thrived better with "fast, shifty WRs who separate well" during the latter half of last season? Oh, that's right, you can't - because Khalil Shakir, who was playing very well, had 2 games of over 100 yds, Jets 3/115 and Mia 6/105. But in that latter half, big bodied TE Kincaid had 3 games for 80+ yds. I would personally say there were other things going on at the end of last season that affected passing game production including but not limited to: Josh's throwing shoulder sprain; a new OC; and whatever tf was going on with Diggs, our #1 receiver, that affected everyone's production. Do you really want to 'hang your hat' on Gabe Davis as an example of how Josh has "not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation"? It seems to me at times, Josh clicked with him Just Fine. The shoe-string sideline catches in the 2020 Indy game, for example, or the 2021 KC game where he went off for 8 catches, 201 yds and 4 TDs. #FACTS: Josh racked up more yards with Davis than he did with anyone else but Diggs. Now you can nitpick that statement, but the fact is, Josh was pretty productive with Davis. He certainly liked to target him downfield, whether he had separation or not, especially after Beasley was gone. OK, so we've had what? 6? smaller, more shifty WR - Diggs, Beasley, Brown, Sanders, McKenzie, Crowder. 3 of them (Diggs, Beasley, Brown) Josh had arguably more success with than with Davis. 3 of them (Sanders, McKenzie, Crowder) did not seem to have a good connection with Josh; I would say he had a better connection with Davis than with them. Maybe forming a connection might have more to do with the capabilities of the receiver and what other threats were on the field, and less to do with the receiver's size? Which brings me to where you have a valid point - Gabe Davis was a limited receiver in that he was stiff and ran a limited route tree which, for whatever reason, he couldn't seem to extend. He was also frequently hampered by ankle injuries. But where's the logic to extend that to all big bodied receivers? Are you trying to argue that they're all gonna be stiff and run limited route trees and not develop because Davis was that way, and Fat Kelvin was...well, Fat Kelvin? That would be.....illogical. But let's cut to the chase: The Bills didn't draft Keon Coleman at the top of the 2nd because they think he is stiff and runs a limited route tree and can't separate. They drafted him because they think he is a high-ceiling guy with exceptional hands and catching skills, who will be able to use his basketball-derived flexibility and weight shift abilities to rapidly improve his route running and his release moves. If you listen to Beane's presser, he is very explicit about this (17:39): he says Keon has "a really good release package for a college player, kid who's 20" and that "it'll improve - he's gonna play tougher corners so he's gonna have to improve with it" He said "Of the bigger guys, we thought his release was as good as any." Beane doesn't think he's a super-slow guy: he said he has much faster game speed, "noting the Bills had access to his GPS information in college, which pegged him closer to the 4.5 range". Beane said he is good against press. So, one of two things is true: Either Beane and his scouts assessment of Coleman is correct, and he'll develop in to "all that and a bag of chips" and be able to fill that X receiver role; Or, they're mistaken, and the various media draft scouts and pundits are correct. But I don't think it has anything to do with Josh thriving more with small shifty receivers than with big, above-the-rim, wide catch radius guys. It has everything to do with the quality of Brandon Beane and his scouts' player personnel evaluation abilities.

IT'S A TRICK! It's true, but meaningless; what big-bodied WR catch meister WR has Allen had the opportunity to form a connection with? The only one I can think of is 2018 Fat Kelvin, who, as I noted above, was RIP at the time with the only pass he was interested in being preceded by "puff, puff,..." He had the lowest catch rate in the league at the point where we released him, commentators had been noting his lack of effort on the field for weeks, and neither the Mahomes-led Chiefs nor the Giants @Logic, you started this out by stating "Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation." When, other than rookie year with Fat Kelvin, in Josh's 6 years in the league, has he played with "big bodied WR", whether they struggle with separation or not?

I had exactly the same question. The only big-bodied WR I can recall Josh Allen having on the Bills was Fat Kelvin Benjamin, for 12 weeks during which he seemed RIP (retired in place), with the league's worst catch rate of 35%. It wasn't just Josh Allen, either, since after the Bills cut him the Chiefs (with Pat Mahomes on pace for an MVP season) picked him up, and couldn't get anything out of him.

LOL I came here to say, "what, we wanted a guy Spencer Brown could call 'shorty'? Niiice, does that mean he can not get poached?

Punt return guy, OK that explains it. I was like 5'9" CB with 8" hands and 30" arms, WTF Beane?

Right. Excellent point. What's your conclusion from that? Mine: 1) just because a guy has legit sub-4.4 speed doesn't mean he will succeed in the NFL 2) just because a guy doesn't have sub-4.4 speed, doesn't mean he won't succeed in the NFL 3) if you want a guy who is the complete package as a draft prospect, figure out how to get to the top of the 1st round 4) otherwise, pick a guy who has traits you value and gaps you think you can coach up Obviously Beane didn't want to give up whatever he would have had to give up, to get to the top of the 1st round, so he's going by 4) Isabella, in particular, indicates the paradox that sub-4.4 speed and college success don't assure NFL competence. He was drafted in the 2nd round by the Cardinals because of his combination of both elite speed AND quickness with "the feet and the fakes to uncover in a hallway closet". He has a relative athletic score of 96. But his scouting report also noted "Restricted escape angles against press could offer challenge.....Can be shoved off the route path by solid contact. Obvious catch-radius limitations due to size. Chronic body catcher. Rolling starts lead to excessive false-start penalties." Obviously, the Cards hoped they could coach those things up, and 5 years later teams are still hoping. You can't coach speed (you can train to improve it, obviously), but there are other traits like elite catching skills and physicality which are also apparently hard to coach.

We have two. Samuel and Isabella. Cook is dang close with a 4.42 40-time, as well. Now you can say you don't think they're the right guys, or we need different guys or better guys, but that's different from saying we don't have guys.

We can't argue the result (time to throw IS on the high side) but we 100% disagree on the cause. It's nuts to me to believe Josh won't throw unless he sees someone open. He got away from that in 2020, when he learned to throw to the spot even on option routes and trust the WR to choose the same option, which, with Beasley and with Diggs when he and Josh were tight, was usually well-placed trust. Some of Josh's picks last year were because he and the WR weren't reading the defense the same way and he threw it to a place the WR wasn't. Others were because he trusted Gabe Davis to come down with the ball or Diggs to make it "my ball or no one's ball", and his trust was misplaced. I think Josh's time to throw is on the high side because he has that "Brett Favre says touchdowns first, Coach!" mentality and he doesn't want to take the short pass to the open guy, instead he'd rather extend and see if he can find someone open deep on a scramble drill, not because he will only throw to a wide open receiver. All that said - I 100% agree that processing who to throw to given the defense is one of the areas where Josh can really improve.

So for whatever it's worth, Beane and his scouts don't agree with his college profile. Beane said he's great against press and has good moves Now he may be wrong, but that's his evaluation. FWIW, some guys with good eyes like Dan Orlovsky and Chris Simms are enthused PS FWIW this is what Stefon Diggs draft profile said: "Doesn't possess the strength or long speed to make a living as an outside receiver, but he can be an extremely effective weapon from the slot as a pro". That would be news to the Vikes and the Bills.

Brandon Beane is on record disagreeing with you. He says the Bills will use Coleman as an X, starting, like, now. We do have speed on the team. Curtis Samuel ran a 4.3 40 yd dash and is a solid WR. Andy Isabella ran a 4.31 40 yd dash, was drafted in the 2nd round, and has failed to make good as a WR on an NFL team to date. For perspective, Tyreek Hill ran a 4.29 to 4.35 40-time at his pro-day

I don't understand this "Coleman is a big slot" thing at all. 1) I read he played the majority of his offensive snaps at the X in Florida 2) we are already overloaded with guys at WR who are at their best from the slot, why ever would Beane draft a WR with our top pick if he thought he was a slot? 3) Beane has unambiguously said, Coleman will be playing the X in the Bills offense My guess is that the Bills feel that he has the physical tools to refine his route running, because of his basketball background, and that is something they can "coach up" more easily than coaching up reliable hands or the timing to high-point balls. One thing I'm about as positive as I can be is Beane is correct, he plays faster than his combine speed. I could see it in the gauntlet drill at the combine; somewhere it was posted he reached 21 mph by GPS.

He's not, don't worry yourself. He might be giving input, but it's just that - input. Allen said himself "I'd like to think I have input, but really, I don't."

I don't think it's just Allen. Beane is on record saying that the last game you play in a season can really show where your gaps are. In the last game of the season, Diggs fumbled, then missed a catchable deep ball that could have turned the tide of the game. Sherfield also missed a deep ball. Independent of whatever Allen thought, I'm pretty sure a "hands" guy who would come back and go up for the ball and had good ball-tracking skills had to be high on Beane's list and the offensive staff list. If Sherfield makes that catch on the post, and if Diggs hauls in that ball that went right through his hands, the outcome of the KC game could very well have differed. This take is far too rational for this board at this time. Stop Making Sense!!!!

I wanted him too. We had him visit so much, I was sure he was our boy.

Sal Capaccio reported Beane said "no one took their call" to trade up in the 2nd round for Bishop. Will Beane try to trade up in the 4th using 1 or more of our 5th round and later picks? If he tries, will he succeed? I'm not asking much, but Beane, could you please come out of the 5th round with a clone of Puca Nakua?