BigBillsFan

Exclude the Brown throw, why not try some of those runs again?

Here's where you're wrong: So far you've said I stated you need to have 62% accuracy to be successful --> never said that That I said Allen "cannot" (that's your words) learn --> never said that At this point "Doctor" you should have walked away. If you can't analyze what someone said how you can you make any meaningful statements? Of course you don't puff your chest out with the "I'm a PHD" script when the stats and facts are against you. You said he's trending but guess what? Not according to statistical data. Even the positive trend is statistically meaningless from YOUR position. Oh wait... you want it to have meaning so MAGICALLY stats are used. You use football stats when they benefit you, but fly to your credentials and chest-beating statistics when they don't. Got it. But it's ok dismiss completion %, QB rating, YPG, etc.. It's worked out well for a lot of teams.

My biggest takeaway was we should have won... many many many times. 2nd biggest takeaway is let's run the dang ball or attempt it like we did in the 1st series. I think we have most of the guys we need to run the ball and I really think Singletary might be our best RB in a long time.

Hold on because that wasn't your argument and not what I said in context. Here's what you said that I was arguing: "that 62% is the number that needs to be shown for success in the NFL" <-- I never said that I never said you needed to be 62% to be successful. That's 2 different arguments. I said to be considered an accurate passer. Luke Falk was one of the accurate QBs in college, I never said he would successful. I've never said accuracy equals success. I did say it's one of the best indicators of it, along with YPA and TD/Int ratios. You also confirm that you don't know how statistical analysis works in football. You change the goalposts so quickly it's impossible to make an argument with you. I'll tell you what, when everyone was celebrating Allen after the Cowboys game did you once point out their lack of statistical meaningfulness?

My point is you can't use a scientific statistical analysis for NFL QBs. Apply N1 to completions per game, TDs, INTs and you just can't. Let's use "Rating" as a fairly accurate measure of a QB. The 9th best QB is Derek Carr and the 23rd is Fitzy. I don't think they are comparable. 11th is Watson and 20th is Jones. Again not comparable. Even 13th is Wentz and again Jones isn't close this year. I don't see how you can relate 23rd to 9th at all. Power as you describe means a large statistical analysis and creating averages. This cannot be done with NFL QBs. The NFL as I see it has about 3-5 elite QBs (although I'd argue we might be down to 1 soon), about 5-7 franchise guys, and the rest is a carousel of guys who could be backups or borderline starters. Their replacement value is close to equal. Case Keenum could be replaced with Fitz could be replaced with Trubisky, etc. without much change in the season. An elite QB adds 4-7 wins to their team above replacement and a franchise is 2-5 wins above replacement. Now that's me guessing, I have no stats, but that's my own guess based on Rivers and Brees having great years on horrible teams and guys like Matt Cassell being 11-5 on the Patriots or even Stafford this year on the Lions who was playing lights out. A team is a bigger component than just the QB.

2 things on a corollary can both be true. A shirt can be both blue and yellow but never blue and not blue. I've never said Allen "cannot" develop much, but it's very hard on a professional level to eradicate past mechanical issues without time and practice. Allen can improve, it's just much harder with ingrained habits. I hope he does. If you can point me to a time when I said "cannot" I'll concede your point. You're making several points I never made. I mean this alone is illogical: "because 58.6% is less that 60%. Not true." Of course it's true. You said it takes thousands (2,000 min then?) to know if that's true. That's 4 seasons. No one throws 4 seasons of footballs in 1 season for analysis. You tried before with your N1 statement which I showed doesn't apply to 1 game in sports, and your arguments of precision which barely apply to a QB. Let me make it more concrete. If Allen threw for 72% this year and anyone said "we don't know if he's accurate he's hasn't thrown the ball 2,000 times" are you going to tell me you're going to call that person out for lack of statistical sampling or say "Dang right he is!" and if I joined in on the celebration of accuracy would you be as objective in your analysis and call me out with your credentials? I'm curious if your position is one sided. Using that same logic no one could ever be accurate in a single season if one needs "thousands" of data to make the analysis. Football is not a laboratory and #s are generally true because they generally are. I've never said passers out of college 62% is the number needed for success. Show me where. Lastly, my background is irrelevant to the discussion. Facts, logic, and reasonable arguments is what we argue. To give you some indication of what my background is the argumentum ab auctoritate is fallacious and spurious. I have to say if you post your credentials demanding obedience you might as well use my actual arguments as well. I'm not saying Allen can't learn or adapt, I said it takes time. That's why we need a great running game like Big Ben did and McNair had with Eddie George. What I'm saying is bad habits are harder to fix we should do more to give him more chances to succeed by giving him a great running game and better targets and let him grow.

If you've ever read what I've wrote (not that I'm a worthy read), I've 100% put blame on the coaches/GM for Allen, not Allen. You don't put a raw QB without a good TE who is established and a good run game. It's poorly thought out. I've said he's more like a Big Ben/McNair who needs time to grow. I agree with almost everything you said. I'm not an Allen basher, I'm a Daboll/Beane and McDermott critic for how they run the offense. How do you put a rookie who is not ready next to Peterman? Where is your identity? Guys like Murray and Jackson have been given clear mandates. Allen is floundering not because he can't succeed but because he's not in the position with personnel, schemes, and GM preparing for him. It's like taking your highest pick for a QB ever and hoping he turns out great somehow someway. It's not fair to Allen. Look at the playoff game for example: we had a clear identity for 1 offensive series, and it was awesome. The whole rest of the game the play calling was ridiculous.

Our stat differential was 2 weeks. Factor in the Ravens game he was in the bottom tier. Why were we so bad on the blitz? OC calls and time of the hand of Allen. Allen ranked 1st for holding the ball longest. There are countless All-22s that show Allen had time to throw on plays with an open player but couldn’t find his receiver. There are also some All-22s that show he had no time to throw. The “no-time” to throw happens to every QB: throwing it away, etc.. Last I don’t think our WRs ranked last on time of separation. I think Allen likes more time to process the field and try to create longer throws. Also Brady’s blitz metrics went down not because of Pedelman or White and the lack of Gronk, but he clearly regressed mentally and physically. When he was young his receivers weren’t great and he did just fine against the blitz. I find comical that people can insult me and if I use their same language I’m talking down to them. Like you saying I don’t know the game. When did I accuse anyone of not knowing the game? Your hypocrisy is a bit silly. I used the argument of neuroplasticity not to talk down to people but to point out an element in learning. Did I ever say “if you hillbillies knew about X then talk to me?” Who am I except for another fan, I don't think anyone is more worthy of their own views or opinions. Share yours, I'd love to hear them, I've learned a lot here and other places. I'm just a dad and fan of the Bills. I'm a nobody. Maybe use arguments and you’ll find I’m very polite. If I cite stats and proof I like friendly debate. I’m not threatened by discussion, even disagreement.

Little Donte Maybin Mike Williams McGahee Letting Winfield walk Rex Ryan Brandon as GM Marv as GM 2 1sts for Sammy Overpaying for Star Extended GMs Donahoe and Whaley Rob Johnson Not stopping Kelly in the SB and letting Thurman run Not extending Jason Peters Spiller Extending Fitz

First of all I agree with everything you wrote. I think Allen will improve. I used the extreme example of newbs learning football to show it's not coaching that's 100% the solution, but the person as well. I once helped coach a kid to have Division I technique in 6 months in tennis, he had borderline pro technique instantly. Great athlete, fast learning, incredible hand-eye coordination, etc.. Once it was a match with pressure he couldn't be consistent to save his life. He was overthinking everything. I'm sure he made a great college player by his 3rd year, but that's as far as it could go. Pressure destroys coaching all the time without the pressure cooker of time to solidify it. There has to be time applied to the learning where it feel natural. Every sport requires massive nuance that just can't be coached, it must be done over and over again. It's called the "feel" for the game. I know you know this, but people think if the player gets X coaching they get a Y solution. It's freaking hard to play sports at the highest level. I 100% believe Josh will be better next year. That same confidence does not mean he'll be a $35 million QB or a starter in the NFL. I hope he does. But the mere belief I think he may not makes people go insane. To say he's inaccurate right now does not mean he can't improve. Is that so unreasonable as to say he may not pan out in this system/staff? That he needs a strong run game and patience to see if he's capable? That other players may in fact be better than he is currently? That he didn't "lead" the team to 10-6 but he was basically along for the ride of a great defense? That a 4th quarter comeback against the Bengals isn't really an accomplishment and more of an indictment we had no offense the whole game? All of those questions are objectively true or could reasonably be argued.

Sometimes being too successful as a QB is worse than struggling for big ego players like Baker. Baker had a 7 game stretch as the best QB in the league for completions % and his YPA was close to 9 for those 7 games. The question is can he recover and if not I think his career will spiral out of control. He reminds me of Andy Ruiz after beating Joshua: he got fat and stupid.

Completely agree. I think if he can get to the 15-18th best QB passing with his running ability and an improved running game we can make the playoffs. Our schedule is brutal. I'd love to see how he does with a bigger target. Duke is a great 5th WR, but not a true #1. I really want him to have that outlet under pressure to make those 50/50 balls to a WR.

Mahomes would not have flourished under many HCs in the NFL. Being elite isn't the same as having a great coach to hide your weaknesses and push your strengths. If you think he if was drafted under Marvin Lewis's Bengals, or Hue Jackson's Browns he'd throw 50 TDs you wouldn't understand football. KC thought they could grab Cassell of the Pats* and make him awesome. How did that turn out? Brees is not my benchmark for anything related to this team. I may have used him as an analogy and others have. Brees is a different animal than Allen. Allen has a higher upside but a much lower floor. Systems, GMs, and coaching make QBs more than QBs are great by themselves. It's exceptionally rare a QB is so great that he excels the disaster of their team. If you think Teddy Bridgewater would lead many teams to 5-0 this year let me know which teams that would be.

Says the guy who predicted he would be the MVP in 2019 when he was ranked 26th out of all QBs. Which is closer to delusion: someone who points out he's 26th or the guy who thinks he's 1st out of 32? And the winner is... Next you told @Mango he was going to be drafted in the top 10. Says who? He was already at #7 and guys slip all of the time. The only guarantee in the draft is that there aren't any guarantees. Your argument, even if valid, is like listing a house 3 bed 2 bath house in rural Buffalo for $5 million dollars and then when someone comes to see it you tell them "Well it was $5 million, we've really dropped the price". Big arm QBs without accuracy have been the disaster of the NFL drafts for decades. It's like a who's who of busts. Last, you showed me some of his best throws under pressure. Sure, they exist, but that's not what neuroplasticity is. It's the reason why Allen is blitzed so frequently by teams like the Ravens and Pats*. He's the 30th worst QB under blitz pressure: https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/11/2/20943679/who-should-you-not-blitz He's 30th against the blitz. 30th. Stats aren't anecdotal videos. Stats show what happens under normative circumstances. He completed 7 of 24 against the blitz against the Ravens.

Because it’s accurate. 60% is higher than Josh’s 1st 2 seasons. I never said it was "so much better" but it was "better". If you read what I wrote I never used hyperbole like "so much better". Yes because it's assumed that House did the change = Brees becoming better. That's not established. Improvement? Sure, but all improvements were from coaching? Yes, it's getting a bit too much if you think so. Because the baseline for accuracy in those days was 60%. If you were over 60% you were accurate in the pros. Today that's creeped up to 62-65% coming out of college. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2001/passing.htm When Brees was drafted only 2 players over 4k yards, and at 62% completions which is now the norm for over 2/3rds of QBs today only 6 in the league could pull it off. 61% was great in college when he was drafted.

Yes Tom House had to completely remake Brees footwork, throwing habits, and shoulder angles. This is crazy. This is getting funnier by the moment. Incremental improvements are not full scale mechanics right? I mean you do understand Brees had amazing mechanics coming out of college right? This is just crazy.

You do know Jacoby Brissett makes $15 mil a year year right? $33 does not equal $15 mil. Jimmy G is paid $27 mil/yr Cousins is paid $28 mil a year. QBs get paid based on projection of what other QBs will be paid in the future. Dak is still way too unproven with Cooper at WR as the only way he could even have any success. I'd pay him $25 or let him walk.

Sure if you want to compare a 2nd rounder who had a better completion rate than Josh ever had in his 1st year as starter. Brees didn’t have mechanical issues but couldn’t catch up to the speed of the game, Josh has both issues. How many QBs with massive mechanical issues turn out to be Pro-Bowlers as raw QBs? Name them... didn't think so.

Neuroelasticity or neuroplasticity does show the brain doesn't fully form until you're about 25 yrs old. The problem is hard-coding. Habits are harder to break when we get just a little older and done something for years. Leftwich couldn’t shake his motion, Tebow couldn’t change his when he got rushed. They were young, old habits came back under pressure. It's not like serving a tennis ball in a static environment, or pitching when you are running and men chasing you. Most people who claim they can change mechanics so easily don’t realize it’s not just mechanics its pressure that causes reversions. You could teach a bunch of 22 yr olds to play QB: mechanics, reading the field, etc.. If all they did was study some of the more erudite types could master plays with mechanics in probably under a year. Full mastery? No, but they would know all of their assignments and mechanics. Then push them on a football field and all of that learning would borderline disappear. They wouldn’t need a year, they would need YEARS to take what they’ve learned and apply it in real time, and most would fail, and this is true of young men who were groomed for years from their youth. It’s the difference between mechanical and natural. it’s the reason why you could teach me to play tennis like Federer but I couldn’t hit it like him, or teach me to hit a baseball like Mike Trout but I couldn’t hit like him in real time, and why the hardest position in the world in sports takes years to be a natural. I have 100% knowledge knows the mechanics, that he knows the plays (all reports say he’s intelligent and hard working), but it’s doing it under pressure. It’s why we celebrate when he throws a screen or swing pass accurately, because we realize he’s not that complete as a player. It’s not rawness alone, it’s bad habits that break down under pressure.

Currently a 3rd. That's my guess.

NFL knows news is forgotten about quickly. The whole dang thing is a joke. Bellycheat should be thrown out of the league and Krafty Bob forced to sell and strip their SBs.

Of course when there is money to be made, and they've made billions, why stop the charade now? Ice Age 70's Global Warming 90's Climate Change 2000's Mini-Ice Age 2020 All Lies All The Time

This is the fallacy in logic called the post hoc fallacy. Joe Burrow has the single greatest season in college history to a guy who was ranked in the bottom 1/3rd of QBs and in his 1st season the flat out worst. Allen will improve, that I have no doubt, but it won’t be stratospheric like Burrow and how do I know? Because it’s never happened before. You can’t take an exception and make it close to a rule. Has Allen improved? Sure but the fact he lacks that coaching is the exact reason why it’s so much harder now. Neuroelasticity is not the same in a guy in his 20’s as a guy as a teenager. It’s the reason why no great chess masters spring out of the blue in their mid-20’s. Burrow never struggled with mechanics, he struggled with mentally analyzing the field and timing. That’s stratospherically different than someone with mechanical issues. Brees is the same as Burrow for that big leap, but that wasn’t mechanical, it was analyzing. So yes I expect improvement, but in the 3-15% range, not in the 100% range like Burrow. To answer your question who is more likely in 5 years to be the great pro? Joe Burrow, his game has less variables to answer. Allen has multiple variables which are unproven. Burrow’s is simple: can you throw with the speed of the pros? Allen’s is the same + can you fix your mechanics + the ability to read the field.

The Rams built a team off superstars, kind of how most people dream their team on Madden but a horrible idea for winning. Gurley, Goff, Donald and soon to be Ramsey. They are going to suck for years.

Hey I have a great idea, make him the OC here.