Einstein's Dog

Bills trade #144 to Tenn (after they draft Rome) for DHop. Bills trade #28 to Wash for #36 + #78.

I have a hard time coming to terms with the on-paper downgrade at WR from last year that we would have with 2 second tier rookies penciled in for large roles. It would signify to me a rebuild/reset year. Generally the draft had been considered replenishment for the future - not filling immediate needs. The idea of a second tier WR being the Diggs replacement isn't right. Either a big 3 as Diggs replacement with a FA WR (OBJ/M Thomas) or a trade for a vet WR. I think J Jeff/Aiyuk/Higgins are too expensive ($ + draft capital) but there are others - D Metcalf/C Godwin/DHop/DJ Moore.

The downside- other teams thinking Legette leaking something that was said in private. Two, all teams feeling that Legette misinterpreted what was told to him. Three, if any team felt Legette was doing this out of a selfish me-first interest with no regard for the bad team's interest it would certainly not be looked upon in a good light. It just seems like a stupid thing he did, I don't think he did it in any malicious me-first way though. But he is a one year wonder who is thought to be somewhat developmental. Not worth a first round pick IMO, let's see if Carolina takes him at 33.

Yeah, not a good look out of Legette. If it was said to him, he is outing what is not hard to understand was a private conversation to the public. It puts the person who said this to him -which wouldn't be hard for the Panthers to figure out- in a bad situation. Secondly, it is kind of hard to believe someone actually told him this. It seems like he may be positively interpreting some conversation. And Legette by making this statement, if it doesn't come true, makes it seem like someone lied to him. I'm off the Legette train, maybe in the 4th. Give me McConkey/Franklin/Coleman over this mess.

In this mock Nabers is still around for the Raiders pick at 13 - that would have to be tempting for Beane. Might be in the possible trade range for a premier WR1.

Einstein's Dog moves (which if Beane is smart will be his): 1. Trade low draft pick for vet WR- Dhop/Metcalf/Godwin type. Top choice DHop early w so Tenn at pick 7 goes WR. 2. trade back out of round 1 for extra pick. With early pick get one of the second tier WRs - McConkey/Franklin/Legette/Coleman 3. remaining draft DL, S 4. get a good value on a vet RB, wait it out. Maybe Zeke. 5. get a vet S. If not Simmons then bring back Hyde to mentor draft pick. That provides the team with enough talent to contend. Not much you can do about the lack of pass rush but hope on Von and a draft pick.

My thinking is Beane would probably want to stay away from the divas wanting out, which require big money and draft capital. Preferable to that would be the veteran WR that is expendable because the team he is on gets one of the highly touted new ones. So, if Tenn takes a big 3, DHop would be a much more manageable get than say J Jeff or Aiyuk. If Seattle takes one, D Metcalf might shake loose. If Tampa gets a new one C Godwin may be available. As mentioned above with Chicago- K Allen or DJ Moore become expendable. Personally, I'm back on the DHop train. DHop looked like he still had the goods last year. DHop has a cheap contract that Beane could do a lot of tricks with. Beane should be working out options with Tenn prior to the draft to encourage them to take one of the big 3. Tell Tenn if they take a WR, the Bills will give them a 4th (5th?) for Dhop. Beane would tell Tenn If they don't take it the Bills have other options behind them (Chic, Sea, TB) - because as an aside no GM is believing this garbage that Beane is going to have 2 lower drafted rookies as major contributors in a prime J Allen year- it would be a complete failure as a GM.

Maybe the conversation with Chicago will be what it will take for one of their veteran WRs. If Chicago is looking at picking up one of the big three WRs to go with their rookie QB, then all of a sudden they look over-invested in the WR room. K Allen, DJ Moore and now a highly touted first rounder. Getting draft picks for one of those two veterans would then be awfully tempting. DJ Moore was a Carolina product with a reasonable $15M salary. Same logic applies for Tenn. If they want one of the big 3 then Tenn looks over-invested with Ridley/DHop/and big 3 rookie. DHop looks like a trade target (and he has a very reasonable $13M salary). The draft capital offered for the veteran WRs would be cheap. The Bills would still hopefully use an early pick on a WR to use and develop.

I remember Beane saying not to expect any big moves in FA and then we got someone, don't remember who maybe Von or Floyd. No one remembers what he said about it because no one cared. I don't see how you think Beane is echoing what he has always said and done. He changes. Remember when he said he doesn't believe in rebuilding? Well, what's it going to be Beane - a rebuild or are you going to get a WR1? Beane is trying to set expectations low. I don't for a minute believe this is what he wants, and also don't believe this is what we will end up with.

Option 5: Trade for a vet WR with a low draft pick and then trade back from 28 and with one of those pick up another WR.

I think you may be falling into the trap of believing what is said during the free lying period. Beane is setting the ground work for the worst case scenario - in case none of the trades he wants materialize. He is setting up low expectations by design and if he can produce it will just make him look good. As it stands now this is by far the worst Beane has done year over year for the on-paper talent. It's not over, but as it currently stands this is a drastic rebuild.

No we shouldn't have to "try and make do". Beane needs to earn his keep, he sent Diggs packing, bring someone in. It seems like the top tier are too expensive - J Jeff and B Aiyuk but there are other options. D Metcalf/C Godwin/DHop. If Beane doesn't do something of this magnitude (which includes a massive move up for one of the big 3) then this, IMO, is a historically bad year over year on-paper drop.

I appreciate the effort/thoughts. But from where I sit I would like McConkey over Franklin. In any event, I hope this is just reviewing the draft (the early portion) and is not all that the FO does. A WR room of Franklin/Samuel/Shakir would be pathetic. Big time rebuild if this is the thought. I hope that's not the plan. This kind of draft complements the trade for a real WR1. Sending a lower pick for a Metcalf/Godwin/DHop, maybe Sutton or DJ Moore. Then you have a WR1 and a Samuel/rookie (Franklin/McConkey) as WR2.

0%??? C'mon, who put out that ridiculous number. And how do they factor in the plays (which were a much larger percentage for Coleman) where he is intentionally running to the defender? This is by design. FL had many more plays where they ran Coleman to what they called the "heels of the defender".

Guaranteed win? Even if he caught the ball (and I agreed with you at the time that Josh should have thrown it to him), there was no guarantee of winning. The Bills were down three and twenty yards out. They would/should have run clock so scoring a TD was certainly not a given. And if Bass shanked the FG try the Bills would have lost anyway. This is starting to become revisionist fact, kind of like 13 seconds cost us the superbowl.

That's a huge assumption there. Josh just needed to target Diggs? Like Diggs wouldn't have to catch the ball? Remember the easy screen to Diggs in the Denver game, meant to chew up time at the 12, with 2:12 remaining in the game? Diggs dropped that. Huge drop from a game management perspective. Diggs was not the same clutch guy the second half of last season, not at all.

I agree, risky and borderline unrealistic to rely on a rookie. The safer play is to let Tenn grab one of the big 3 and then send a 4th for DHop. That's the short term replacement for Diggs, and reasonable to expect similar production. Then in the 1st two rounds grab a G Davis replacement, who can develop into much more. If you grab 2 WRs in this class, the Bills would set themselves up for problems with offensive personnel in a few years. All the youngsters would be coming due and in line for big money - Kincaid/Cook/maybe Shakir/Torrence/C Samuel/and now our new rookie WR. Might be best to add another premier, high draft pick, WR in two years to have a staggered approach for long lasting contention.

I could see him somewhat relieved to not have to cater so much to figuring out Diggs. But still a little nervous about the current state of the WR room. Obviously he should have some trust that the current pathetic state will change but how much? Going with rookies, while ensuring Josh as lead dog, is not the best, on paper solution.

Just say "No' to a rebuild and instead lets go for the reload. Beane somewhat brought this upon us by letting Diggs get under his skin. We shouldn't let Beane off the hook. Beane needs to produce- none of this rebuild nonsense. The playoffs can be a crapshoot, the more shots/years as a contender the better the odds of bringing home the big prize. Wasting a year of prime Josh is a terrible idea. Get a vet and one of the good second tier WRs. The vet replaces Diggs - J Jeff/B Aiyuk/DK Metcalf/C Godwin/DHop. I don't really like Sutton though. The rookie replaces G Davis with potential to evolve into a WR1. Then the beat goes on, the Bills are once again a contender. Diggs does not deserve to be a chapter ender. He is a player that filled the role of expensive WR1. That role should be replaced and the Bills as a contender should continue.

IMO, the D Smith contract does not kill hopes of trading for a star WR. Beane will/should seek a deal. Aiyuk may now be out of range but he was never a great deal IMO - Aiyuk was going to cost a bounty in draft capital and be a big cap cost. WRs near the end of their deals looking for big money while the teams they are with are looking for draft capital are not attractive IMO -so just say no to the J Jeff/B Aiyuk and B Aiyuk. To improve year over year what Beane/McD need is someone better than Diggs last year. So a Dhop/DK Metcalf/C Godwin/D Adams/maybe C Sutton are all in play. These are all WR's that might be had by trading a reasonable draft pick and picking up a veteran with a reasonable salary. I'm hoping the FO replaces Diggs with one of these type of vet options. I'm hoping they replace G Davis with the draft, no need to move up- maybe even move down and get a McConkey/Coleman/Franklin/Legette.

Wow, your chart screams rebuilding year which is something I thought the FO was trying to avoid. I don't expect to be running with that. You say "Unless there is a major trade up" which leaves out the trade option. The trade option is the most non-rebuilding option there is. The trade option is the safest method out there to replace Diggs - while hopefully leaving the draft to still get a G Davis replacement. The high end trade options of J Jeff or B Aiyuk are excellent Diggs upgrades but infringe on the rest of team development in draft capital and money. Then there are DHop/C Godwin/C Sutton types that could be had for a lot less yet still be looked at as Diggs replacements. Beane is not done yet.

But it doesn't have to be a young guy in order to win the division. Someone like DHop type could be a more affordable, less draft capital bridge. And then the Bills still take a WR in the first two rounds that is better than G Davis right away and has the possibility to ascend to WR1 status.

The Bucs might get a comp pick for Godwin in 2026 if they meet the vague, confusing guidelines. Small consideration. I am not sure what it would take but what I am confident in is that it would be considerably less than the draft capital and money for Aiyuk. Aiyuk is making waves, Diggs style, to get money. And SF is reluctantly investigating. On the other hand, Godwin is already under contract and Tampa would be considering moving him to due Godwin not being in their future plans. I like the idea of trading for a vet on a contract to a short term deal. That is less risky way to replace Diggs. I thought a 4th for DHop and his reasonable salary might be a good option. Seems like Godwin would require more, maybe the 2nd next year that we got for Diggs.

The dead money is a timing issue, it will go against Tampa at some time. Tampa has a hard decision coming up with C Godwin. Since Tampa just paid M Evans it probably is not in their plans to pay Godwin. Moving Godwin now they could get something for him. Getting Godwin is not a miss, it is a distinct strategy on how to replace the Diggs hole. It is an alternative to spending huge draft capital to get into the top 10 for one of the big 3 (which is still risky to hope they replace Diggs production in their rookie season).. It is an alternative to the give big draft capital and pay big amounts to the Aiyuk/Jefferson scenarios. Many, including myself, were hoping the original use of the draft was to replace G Davis.

The advantage of trading for a vet in this situation is you can adjust salary/cap in a variety of ways. The player is generally agreeable because they get more money this year as apposed to playing on their old salary. I like the idea of a veteran WR that, on paper should be as good (or better) than Diggs last year. Plus getting one of the second tier of WRs that could be considered the equal of G Davis right out of the gate, their rookie year (with the potential to be much more).