Billl

Great post. Beane hasn’t really had to make tough decisions yet. So far he’s chosen to pay pretty much everyone. Allen got a big contract. White got a big contract, Milano got a big contract. He (I think) signed Morse to a big contract. Edmunds is going to get $13,000,000 next season. He picked up the option on Oliver, etc. Veach (and Reid) seem to be willing to live with temporary roster holes in order to prioritize retaining stars. They let Morse walk, and Reid was able to coach and scheme around having a bum at C for a couple of years. Then when Creed fell into their lap at pick 61, they grabbed him. Same thing happened with LB. We were abysmal for years after letting Dee Ford and Justin Houston go, but that was okay because we switched to a 4-3 and now that’s the least important position in our defense. Then they grabbed Gay at pick 63 2 years ago and Bolton at 58 last year and have two plus LBers on rookie contracts. Yes the Chiefs have some huge contracts, but they only hurt you when those guys don’t produce. Mahomes, Hill, Jones, Thuney, and Mathieu have been worth every penny. Clark and Hitchens have not been good, and they’ll be gone next year. Contrast that with the Bills who haven’t had to deal with the big cap hits of Allen and White yet. Allen is worth every penny, but White’s going to count for $16.4 million next season coming off an injury that will likely take until 2023 to fully recover from. Then you’ve got guys like Star ($9mm), Morse ($11mm), Milano ($10mm), Edmunds ($13mm), Beasley ($8mm) etc. who don’t have “big contracts” per se, but that’s $50,000,000 of cap space tied up on guys who are either getting old, playing less critical positions, or just aren’t particularly productive. That’s not to say Buffalo is in a terrible spot or anything, but those contracts severely limit Beane’s options elsewhere. I’m not sure he’s done himself any favors in the draft recently, either. After taking Epenesa two years ago, he double dipped on Rousseau and Basham last year when Creed was sitting right there. He had the perfect pick fall into his lap, and he passed on it to take a 24 year old DE (who I wanted the Chiefs to draft assuming Buffalo took Creed). If McDermott is going to keep running a rotational D-line, Beane’s picks at that position have to fit.

Right, but they’re ready to tear it down and start over because their talent window closed. It didn’t happen until after Brees retired and Michael Thomas went AWOL. They didn’t have to let any of their key pieces walk due to cap issues until then because they were able to kick the can down the road pretty much indefinitely. There’s no downside to blowing up the roster now. They’ve got a backup TE playing QB for God’s sake. Salary cap issues or not, that team would either need to be torn down or it would be stuck in limbo where they’re not good enough to compete for a championship but not bad enough to draft a blue chip QB.

We’ll almost certainly sign either Mathieu or Ward. I’m hoping for Ward. Ingram will be cheap, and he’s replaceable if not. His value was that he was competent and allowed us to push Jones back inside where he dominates instead of at DE where he’s awful. Mitchell Schwartz isn’t even on the team. He was cut following last season. Good teams rarely get torn apart due to salary cap issues. Maybe you could say the Seahawks, but that was much dysfunctional management and aging veterans as it was cap. People have been swearing the Saints would be screwed by the cap for years, and it never happened.

Mahomes is Jordan and Allen is LeBron. They’re both good at everything while being great at different things.

I agree with every word of this. This season will do more for Mahomes’s career than any he’s had since the year he didn’t play. Everything had always been easy for him. Defenses weren’t stopping him. They were finally taking advantage of his arrogance by making him be patient. The Cover 2 shell is trash when used as a base defense, but it works if the opposing QB is too proud to steal the baby’s candy. Sunday was the first game of his career in which Mahomes didn’t throw a single pass 20+ yards beyond the LOS. He’s had his epiphany. I don’t know what holes there are left in his game that exist to be filled. Josh still has holes, and that’s terrifying as an opposing fan because he’s really good at solving them year to year. At some point in the very near future he needs to learn how to operate within a system that includes zero designed QB runs. A prime Roethlisberger who can run like Derrick Henry when you least expect it is unstoppable. Josh Allen is currently…pretty much unstoppable until he’s inevitably broken. Dude gives a lot of hits, but he takes a lot of hits.

In the next decade, how many AFC Championship games Will there be that don’t include Buffalo or KC? I’ll set the O/U at 3.5.

“Down years” will be 10-7 for both teams. I can’t see either team going under .500 in the next decade barring a QB injury.

Your LB situation is interesting to me. Edmunds and Milano are going to make $23,000,000 next year, and I’m not sure how good either of them are. You can make a case that both are really good or below average. I think they’re probably both better than they get credit for because McDermott’s scheme makes them look bad. It seems to cheat a little bit to help the DBs at the expense of the LBs. It’s a good system, and I think he’s comfortable giving Edmunds more than anyone can really handle because it means giving up first downs at the second level rather than TDs at the third level. That’s why Edmunds is such a polarizing player. Some see him as a guy who gets beat a lot, and those people are right. Others see him as a guy who makes chicken salad out of chicken ish, and those people are probably right as well. I think he’s a guy currently playing 2 positions. He’s a Mike and a Will, and McDermott calls a defense as if it has 12 players on the field. If he isn’t extended, there might be a line of GMs waiting to take him off your hands. Then again, he might just suck, cuz WTF do I know?

Yeah, I definitely disagree, but it’s close. I think the ending clouded a lot of people’s minds regarding how lopsided the game actually was. Kansas City moved the ball at will. They ran 73 plays, and 41 of them were on first down. The Bills struggled for everything, but Josh was so brilliant that he made every do or die play. Kansas City outgained Buffalo 552-422, but they hit the upright twice to give away 4 points and Buffalo went 4/4 on 4th downs. You’ve got great fans and a great board as well. I used to say the same about us, but the board took a pretty disgusting turn about 7 years ago. It’s still got the best football discussion I’ve ever found if you’re willing to sift through all the racism and political extremism, and I’m just not. So, you’re stuck with me for now. Buffalo never had the ball with the lead at any point in the game, but every time it looked like Kansas City was about to put it away, Josh made a play. It was the best game I’d ever seen when Davis caught the final TD, and I said as much at the time right here. Even with all that, it didn’t matter. Mahomes finished going 9/9 for 137 yards and 2 TDs and honestly made it look easy. I’ve got a ton of respect for the Bills. IMO, they’re the second best team in the NFL, and there’s a bigger gap between them and third best than there is between them and first. We’re going to have this discussion basically every year the heat death of the universe, so we’ll see what happens. So far, it’s 1-1 in the regular season and 2-0 Chiefs in the postseason between Josh and Pat. I’m assuming we’ll play twice again next year and I hope we do. The Bills have become my second team. I tell everyone else how good you are and then tell y’all how much better we are. I started posting here after I put a couple of substantial bets on Buffalo and the over for the season win total and to win the division Josh’s second year. Made a lot of money on the first and damned near made a huge amount on the second (which is to say I lost).

The LT is a free agent and will likely be tagged. The RT is a rookie.

I’m just curious about why you think Kelce is more important to the Chiefs offense than Diggs is to the Bills. Do you think he’s more important than Hill? Honest question. I honestly have no idea who I would pick if I could only take one, but I’m 100% certain I’d take Diggs over any other skill position player on the Bills. As to why I’m curious, I work from home, it’s freezing out, and this is my slow season so I’m bored out of my mind.

You think your offense isn’t significantly different without Diggs? Here’s an example of a game without Kelce. He had COVID just a few weeks ago. https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401326565

Pat’s looking pretty good. He’s about to play at home in the AFC Championship game like he’s done every year he’s been a starter. If you mean the Patriots, they’re probably making plans to watch the Super Bowl somewhere warm just like 27 other teams are.

Kelce is the only offensive starter over 27. Kansas City just drafted 3 players that made the all rookie team, and their first pick was 58th. Davis’s incredible performance notwithstanding, I don’t know that Beane has ever drafted a single impact player who wasn’t a top 10 pick. He’s brought in some good talent in trading a haul for Diggs (age 29), signing Beasley (age 33), Sanders (age 35), and Star (age 32), but they aren’t exactly youngsters. If you’re going to steal the show, you’re going to have to hope guys like Epenesa, Singletary, Moss, Edmunds, and Rousseau step it up. It gets tougher to find talented players when you aren’t flush with draft picks you acquired from passing on Mahomes.

https://overthecap.com/2021-season-preview-the-nfls-youngest-and-oldest-rosters/

I would agree that they need to do that if they’re going to pay him long term. IMO you simply can’t pay a guy big money if he doesn’t play the vast majority of the snaps unless he’s a dominant pass rusher. He’s got 12 sacks in 3 seasons, so he needs to become one or the other.

The guy filling in for Mathieu literally tripped and fell down while standing still on 4th and 13 leaving Davis all alone in the end zone. Davis had 4 TDs and over 200 yards receiving. I don’t know how much more a team could possibly be impacted by the loss of a DB.

He seems like the perfect use of a 5th year option. If I understand it correctly, he stands to make right at $10,000,000. It’s definitely worth it for a one year deal, but the big question will be what do do with him long term. He plays about 55% of the snaps, so you’ve got to include 2 salaries when deciding how much to allocate to his position.

Then you draft new horses. Gay, Sneed, Thornhill, Bolton, Danna, Wharton, and Ward are all on rookie contracts. That’s 5 starters and 2 rotational DL guys who make next to nothing. Mathieu, Clark, Jones, and Hitchens are the big money guys on defense. Jones is worth every penny. Mathieu is great but possibly declining and is a FA. Clark and Hitchens are washed and will both be gone next year. That is a ton of money that can be put to better use elsewhere. This is why drafting is so critical. I’m not the least bit concerned that our young players will be good. They already are. I could point to Buffalo and ask what you’re going to do about your Safeties who are the strength of your defense but are both on the wrong side of 30. How are you going to get cheaper when picks like Epenesa, Basham, and Moss barely see the field? Maintaining success in the NFL isn’t about how much money and draft capital you spend. It’s about how much bang you get for your buck.

That’s different. You’re paying Milano, so not getting production from him means wasted money. Mathieu is already expensive. Letting him walk (which I expect will happen) frees up dollars to pay his replacement. It would be one thing if he was on a rookie deal and wanted big money, but he’s a $20,000,000 cap hit this season. He’s a great player, but he’s about to hit age 30 and I think the KC brass will use that money on a younger player(s).

I don’t know if you’ve recorded the games and are still trying to get caught up so I’ll try not to give too much away, but you might not want to write off their season just yet.

Why is that? The salary cap keeps going up, and the team keeps replacing expensive veterans with cheap rookies which frees up money to pay for the stars. This season alone, there are 3 rookies who were opening day starters. It’s pretty easy to pay a veteran LT when the rest of the line is making peanuts. Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill are bargains. Paying big contracts only hurts when they under perform. Guys like Anthony Hitchens and Frank Clark have been problematic, but they will both be gone after this season. Put it this way. Hill, Kelce, and Bolton will have a combined hit of $31,000,000 next season at WR, TE, and MLB. Diggs and Edmunds will cost $32,000,000 at the same spots.

It’s all about drafting well. The Chiefs drafted 4 starters in 2020 (RB, LB, RT, and #1 CB) and 3 so far from 2021 (LB, C, G) without a first round pick. They’ve got a lot of expensive players, but they’re offset by young players on rookie contracts. Rosters get expensive when high draft picks don’t get a lot of snaps. Veach/Reid have done a good on getting day 1 starters despite not having a top 30 pick since Mahomes.

Just got a text from a friend of mine on a large group text thread linking this article encouraging everyone to donate. The guy who sent it is absolutely loaded but equally cheap. This thing is really picking up steam.

That was without timeouts as well.