Billl

It’s the same percentage of the cap as it’s always been. I’d take Russell Wilson at $60,000,000 over Goff at $30,000,000 though. The truly elite QBs will always be way underpaid compared to the borderline franchise guys who earn 80-90% of what the top guys get.

Link notwithstanding, let’s just look at the results and draw a conclusion. If I were to give you a list of two groups QBs according to their metric, but I will leave Allen out. (I’m assuming this is based on 2018 data.) Group A: Rosen, Tannehill, Eli, Trubisky, Darnold, Mariota, Winston, Bortles Group B: Brees, Mahomes, Rivers, Rodgers, Luck, Brady, Wilson One of those is a group of the top rated QBs, and the other is a group of bottom rated QBs. Out of 100 people who at least casually follow the NFL, do you think even 1 would have a tough time figuring out which list was which? I don’t. Their metric seems to do a pretty good job of sorting them. That isn’t to say there isn’t some variance, but the trend is accurate, and there don’t appear to be any wild outliers. Given that this is old data, it doesn’t match today’s rankings as accurately as newer data would, but they’re clearly not just throwing darts.

I’d go over, over, under. Josh had 7.4 rushes per game and 53 YPG in 2018. That decreased to 6.8 and 32 last year. I would expect the number of attempts to continue decreasing. His YPC may increase somewhat as that happens, but I don’t think it will be enough to offset the reduced attempts. He will have a top 10 set of targets to throw to. There’s no reason he should need to run more than 5 times per game on average. Fromm and Barkley aren’t going to win games if he goes down, so McDermott and Daboll will need to limit his exposure to hits. I think they’ll work to find a balance between running just enough to be a perceived threat but not relying on it the way they have in the past.

So we’re back to comparing the NFL from 20 years ago to the NFL today and pretending it’s meaningful? The Colts were 11th in TD% Manning’s rookie season and 4th his second season.

I think it’s a pretty good list. He gave a lot of weight to body of work rather than just last year’s production, so a guy like John Brown want going to get much consideration. Shaq Barrett had 19.5 sacks last season and was 82nd on the list. Brown is a really nice #2 WR who had a strong season last year, but it wasn’t the kind of amazing season that makes you find a spot for him on the list despite a pretty pedestrian career prior to 2019. As others have said, Buffalo’s strength isn’t the top level talent. It’s the consistency of solid players at all positions and the depth behind them. That’s a good strategy for beating the inferior teams, but it’s tough to win against upper echelon opponents, and last years results bore that out. If Josh can take the next step with Diggs, and Oliver becomes a beast on the line, nobody is going to want to play them.

Do you think there’s a chance their plan is to roll with Dalton for a year or two and go all in for a top QB in next year’s draft? It kind of feels that way to me. If they think he’s QB purgatory, Dalton could be their Alex Smith while they groom the new guy to ease him into a stacked roster.

He is worth the third or fourth biggest contract, and he’s going to get at least that. He isn’t worth 95% of what Mahomes is going to get or 110% of what Wilson got, though. That’s my whole point. QB salaries are basically slotted based on the top deal. Pat will set the market, and Watson will get about 95% of that. Nobody in the world would prefer to have Watson at $39,000,000 over Mahomes at $42,000,000. The difference in cap space is negligible, but the difference in their play is enormous. The following year, one or more of Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, or Jackson is likely going to exceed whatever Mahomes gets, not because they’re better QBs but because that’s the way these negotiations work.

The record setting contract Mahomes signs is going to give the Chiefs a huge advantage over ever other team whose QB is not on a rookie contract. It’s not like he will get $40 million and the next best will get $30 million. If Buffalo wins back to back AFCE titles, and Josh is a borderline top 10 QB, he’s going to get just as much or more than whatever Pat signs for. The difference in salary between good QBs and elite QBs is tiny. As QB salaries continue to skyrocket, teams paying top dollar for non-elite QBs are going to be the ones hurting the most. Pat is worth $60 million, so he’s going to be a bargain at whatever he winds up getting. I think you’ll see him get around $42 million AAV, and Watson will get around $39 million. THAT is going to be a franchise crippling contract because Watson is very good, but he isn’t anywhere near Wilson or Mahomes.

I literally said “without the cheap shot”. That was the foul on NE. Without the cheap shot, there wouldn’t have been offsetting fouls on the play. Without the offsetting fouls, it would have been third and 17 or 18 from near midfield. You don’t need to proof my posts. They’re correct.

Buffalo has one of the best rosters in football, and it’s been built in a ay that looks to be sustainable. There aren’t one or two stars who could break the bank but would ruin the team if they walked. It really comes down to QB. If Josh is elite, the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs are going to battle it out for a long time.

Without that cheap shot, it was 3rd and 17 from just inside midfield.

Obviously a team that can’t make the postseason with a QB on a late round rookie contract can build a dynasty when they’re paying the same guy $35,000,000 a year.

Dude’s throwing to Justice Hill, Hayden Hurst, Willie Sneed, Miles Boykin, Seth Roberts, and Hollywood Brown. That’s about the biggest bunch of bums this side of Zay Jones, Charles Clay, and Kelvin Benjamin. Lamar was playing 1 on 11 and still put up over 500 yards of offense. I don’t know what QB could have done better. It’s either Mahomes or nobody. It wasn’t too high for him. He got both hands squarely on the ball. It’s not like he leapt up in the air and barely tipped it. That was a very catchable ball.

The pick on the first drive went right through the receiver’s hands. 3:25 of the video below. The throw was slightly high, but that’s a ball that should be caught. Slow motion replay is at 3:45. https://gamepass.nfl.com/game/titans-at-ravens-on-01112020?condensed=true

Jackson was amazing in the first three quarters of the playoffs. His receivers played the worst game I’ve ever seen, or they’d have blown the doors off the Titans. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter when Jackson had to play hero ball that he looked bad. The Ravens are legit.

I’m saying the game was very much in doubt. Pittsburgh has a 72% expected win rate at one point.

Stafford’s talent hasn’t won any Superbowls either. It takes both.

What makes his ceiling so high? I think most people would agree he’s a top 10 athlete at the QB position, probably around 7th. What makes you say his ceiling is higher than guys like Lamar, Pat, DeShaun, etc.?

I’ve never seen a team drop more passes than Baltimore did in that game. It should have been a blowout.

He was 27 years old when McVay moved on from him more than 2 years ago? He must be from a different realm after all given that today he’s only 26. Normal human beings age in a linear fashion. Not the Lizard King Reptilian Solar Being.

I looked this up to see if reality matches perception. Pretty interesting, actually. Josh had 4 TD runs of 1 yard. Three of them were preceded by a Gore run from the 1 yard line that went for no gain. One of those three was on 4th down. Gore got stoned from the 1 yard line on first, second, and third downs before Josh ran it in. You are absolutely right. How in the world did the Jets look at Frank Gore and decide he had anything to offer? He’s beyond washed. 179 touches, and he had 2 TDs. Both were 1 yard runs. They came in weeks 2 and 3. By comparison, the corpse of Shady McCoy had 129 touches and 5 TDs.

Totally agree with the Cam comparison as his upside given his current style. Steve McNair would be another. IMO he needs to start morphing into more of a Roethlisberger style player if he’s going to be successful long term. Being a capable runner who mixes in the occasional ‘wow’ throws can buy a young QB some time while they develop into an effective passer, but it’s not a viable substitute forever. Eventually you have to be able to make consistently make the routine throws.

WTF are you talking about? The cutoff is when EJ Manuel got benched. That was after 4 games in his second season.

The Bills played the 21st ranked pass defense in week 3. Does that matter, or is this another one of your ‘50% is basically the same as 16%’ facts?