Billl

I think it’s a pretty good list. He gave a lot of weight to body of work rather than just last year’s production, so a guy like John Brown want going to get much consideration. Shaq Barrett had 19.5 sacks last season and was 82nd on the list. Brown is a really nice #2 WR who had a strong season last year, but it wasn’t the kind of amazing season that makes you find a spot for him on the list despite a pretty pedestrian career prior to 2019. As others have said, Buffalo’s strength isn’t the top level talent. It’s the consistency of solid players at all positions and the depth behind them. That’s a good strategy for beating the inferior teams, but it’s tough to win against upper echelon opponents, and last years results bore that out. If Josh can take the next step with Diggs, and Oliver becomes a beast on the line, nobody is going to want to play them.

Do you think there’s a chance their plan is to roll with Dalton for a year or two and go all in for a top QB in next year’s draft? It kind of feels that way to me. If they think he’s QB purgatory, Dalton could be their Alex Smith while they groom the new guy to ease him into a stacked roster.

He is worth the third or fourth biggest contract, and he’s going to get at least that. He isn’t worth 95% of what Mahomes is going to get or 110% of what Wilson got, though. That’s my whole point. QB salaries are basically slotted based on the top deal. Pat will set the market, and Watson will get about 95% of that. Nobody in the world would prefer to have Watson at $39,000,000 over Mahomes at $42,000,000. The difference in cap space is negligible, but the difference in their play is enormous. The following year, one or more of Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, or Jackson is likely going to exceed whatever Mahomes gets, not because they’re better QBs but because that’s the way these negotiations work.

The record setting contract Mahomes signs is going to give the Chiefs a huge advantage over ever other team whose QB is not on a rookie contract. It’s not like he will get $40 million and the next best will get $30 million. If Buffalo wins back to back AFCE titles, and Josh is a borderline top 10 QB, he’s going to get just as much or more than whatever Pat signs for. The difference in salary between good QBs and elite QBs is tiny. As QB salaries continue to skyrocket, teams paying top dollar for non-elite QBs are going to be the ones hurting the most. Pat is worth $60 million, so he’s going to be a bargain at whatever he winds up getting. I think you’ll see him get around $42 million AAV, and Watson will get around $39 million. THAT is going to be a franchise crippling contract because Watson is very good, but he isn’t anywhere near Wilson or Mahomes.

I literally said “without the cheap shot”. That was the foul on NE. Without the cheap shot, there wouldn’t have been offsetting fouls on the play. Without the offsetting fouls, it would have been third and 17 or 18 from near midfield. You don’t need to proof my posts. They’re correct.

Buffalo has one of the best rosters in football, and it’s been built in a ay that looks to be sustainable. There aren’t one or two stars who could break the bank but would ruin the team if they walked. It really comes down to QB. If Josh is elite, the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs are going to battle it out for a long time.

Without that cheap shot, it was 3rd and 17 from just inside midfield.

Obviously a team that can’t make the postseason with a QB on a late round rookie contract can build a dynasty when they’re paying the same guy $35,000,000 a year.

Dude’s throwing to Justice Hill, Hayden Hurst, Willie Sneed, Miles Boykin, Seth Roberts, and Hollywood Brown. That’s about the biggest bunch of bums this side of Zay Jones, Charles Clay, and Kelvin Benjamin. Lamar was playing 1 on 11 and still put up over 500 yards of offense. I don’t know what QB could have done better. It’s either Mahomes or nobody. It wasn’t too high for him. He got both hands squarely on the ball. It’s not like he leapt up in the air and barely tipped it. That was a very catchable ball.

The pick on the first drive went right through the receiver’s hands. 3:25 of the video below. The throw was slightly high, but that’s a ball that should be caught. Slow motion replay is at 3:45. https://gamepass.nfl.com/game/titans-at-ravens-on-01112020?condensed=true

Jackson was amazing in the first three quarters of the playoffs. His receivers played the worst game I’ve ever seen, or they’d have blown the doors off the Titans. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter when Jackson had to play hero ball that he looked bad. The Ravens are legit.

I’m saying the game was very much in doubt. Pittsburgh has a 72% expected win rate at one point.

Stafford’s talent hasn’t won any Superbowls either. It takes both.

What makes his ceiling so high? I think most people would agree he’s a top 10 athlete at the QB position, probably around 7th. What makes you say his ceiling is higher than guys like Lamar, Pat, DeShaun, etc.?

I’ve never seen a team drop more passes than Baltimore did in that game. It should have been a blowout.

He was 27 years old when McVay moved on from him more than 2 years ago? He must be from a different realm after all given that today he’s only 26. Normal human beings age in a linear fashion. Not the Lizard King Reptilian Solar Being.

I looked this up to see if reality matches perception. Pretty interesting, actually. Josh had 4 TD runs of 1 yard. Three of them were preceded by a Gore run from the 1 yard line that went for no gain. One of those three was on 4th down. Gore got stoned from the 1 yard line on first, second, and third downs before Josh ran it in. You are absolutely right. How in the world did the Jets look at Frank Gore and decide he had anything to offer? He’s beyond washed. 179 touches, and he had 2 TDs. Both were 1 yard runs. They came in weeks 2 and 3. By comparison, the corpse of Shady McCoy had 129 touches and 5 TDs.

Totally agree with the Cam comparison as his upside given his current style. Steve McNair would be another. IMO he needs to start morphing into more of a Roethlisberger style player if he’s going to be successful long term. Being a capable runner who mixes in the occasional ‘wow’ throws can buy a young QB some time while they develop into an effective passer, but it’s not a viable substitute forever. Eventually you have to be able to make consistently make the routine throws.

WTF are you talking about? The cutoff is when EJ Manuel got benched. That was after 4 games in his second season.

The Bills played the 21st ranked pass defense in week 3. Does that matter, or is this another one of your ‘50% is basically the same as 16%’ facts?

It’s true and it’s not true. Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes, Russel Wilson, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Ryan Tannehill are all dual threat QBs who made the postseason. Jackson is clearly the best runner of the group. The rest of them are pretty much interchangeable in terms of running ability with the biggest difference being how often they do it. There were 5 QBs who averaged 5+ rushes per game (Jackson, Allen, Murray, Minshew, and Watson). That’s 2 rookies, 2 second year players, and a third year player. Guys like Wilson and Mahomes are great runners who use their mobility to extend plays while looking for receivers and are selective about taking off running. What you aren’t going to see is them trying to slam the ball in on first and goal from the 1 in a random regular season game. There’s no reason to take hits like that when you could get the same result by handing it to a back.

EJ Manuel’s rookie season was easily superior to Allen’s rookie season pretty much across the board. He got benched after 4 games in his second season with a stat line of 7 TDs,(2 rushing) 3 INTs, 838 passing yards, 1 fumble, and 79 total points scored. After 4 games of Josh’s second season, Josh had 6 TDs (3 rushing) 6 INTs, 903 passing yards, 5 fumbles, and 76 total points scored. The difference is Buffalo’s defense gave up 24.25 PPG when Manuel was the starter and 16 PPG last season. Buffalo scored more than 24 points 4 times last season. The Bills scored more than 16 points 13 times in 2013. Their productivity is essentially indistinguishable from one another’s. EJ got yanked after 4 games his second year. Josh didn’t.

How about the 18 postseason targets for 14 catches, 288 yards, and a TD. That do anything for you? His worst game of the postseason was 76 yards receiving on 2 targets. The leading receiver for the Bills against the Texans was Singletary. He also had 76 yards receiving, but it was on 7 targets. Here’s guessing that if Duke would have had 76 yards on 2 targets against the Texans like Sammy did rather than 49 yards on 10 targets, Buffalo would have had a chance to play against the reptilian solar king. As much as people here wish it weren’t true, Watson was a key piece of that Super Bowl winning team.

People also want to discount the transition from growing up in Florida and then suddenly living in upstate NY. Buffalo is a nice town, but it may as well be a completely different planet (insert reptilian solar king joke here). He was a 21 year old kid from the Deep South who was thrown onto a bad football team in upstate NY and expected to be the savior because of the draft capital spent to acquire him. He got off to an incredible start to his career, but when he got hurt, the city turned on him. He certainly didn’t do himself any favors with his partying, but he didn’t get into a bunch of trouble. He’s a pretty good dude by just about every account. It’s funny how the same people who will make every excuse in the world for one player show no quarter for others. In any event, he’s been through a lot. He played a huge role in winning a championship and seems to be eager to play a larger role next year. It’s easy to forget that he’s still only 26. If he can keep his mind and body right (two big ‘ifs’) he’s going to end his career with some really impressive numbers, a huge bank account, and likely multiple rings.