Billl

PFF: Compares a QB with a rating of 85.3 in 2019 to a QB with a rating of 83.0 GB808: This is a stupid comparison. GB808: Compares a QB with a rating of 113.3 in 2019 to a QB with a rating of 85.3 I mean you literally made one “point” in your post, and it was that 50% of Jackson’s TDs were inside 5 yards. I showed that the actual percentage was 16.7%. Sorry you make up facts out of thin air.

Your posts are great. Too bad they’re complete BS. Average length of TD pass by LJ: 17.83 yards Average length of TD pass by JA: 17.95 yards TD passes >40 yards LJ: 4 JA: 1 Percentage of TD passes from inside 5 yards LJ: 16.7% JA: 15%

Lamar still led the NFL in TD passes, and his RBs still scored. Many of Allen’s rushing TDs came at the expense of his backs as evidenced by the fact that they had a total of 4 on the season. In the Pittsburgh game, for example, Singletary had a long run to about the six inch line for first and goal. The next play was a QB draw where Allen walked in untouched. Nearly every other team hands that ball off for the TD. Allen had 9 rushing TDs 1 yard 1 yard 1 yard 1 yard 3 yards 6 yards 8 yards 10 yards 15 yards Lamar had 7 1 yard 1 yard 3 yards 8 yards 9 yards 21 yards 47 yards So of Allen’s 29 TDs, 4 of them were 1 yard runs (14%). Of Jackson’s 43 TDs, 2 of them were 1yard runs (5%). If you take their QB sneaks out of the equation, Jackson is still an MVP level QB.

I agree. As of today, I don’t think an objective observer can say with any degree of certainty that JA is or isn’t the long term answer. This time next year, I don’t think that will be the case. I’m also of the opinion that if you can’t tell who a QB is after year 3, then it’s time to find his replacement because that’s how you wind up in purgatory with a guy like Andy Dalton or Marcus Mariota. If he puts it together, the Bills are a very real threat to win the AFC. I think they’re the third best team in the conference behind Kansas City and Baltimore. I don’t believe in Pittsburgh at all, and New England is going to be a tough out, but they aren’t a legit Super Bowl contender IMO.

Here’s the link to the Ravens game. Feel free to watch it again. He was terrible. It’s okay to acknowledge that he repeatedly missed receivers by several yards and took huge sacks. https://gamepass.nfl.com/game/ravens-at-bills-on-12082019?condensed=true The Bills were down 16-0 late in the 3rd quarteragainst the Jets. Allen had thrown 2 INTs and lost 2 fumbles, but he led 3 straight scoring drives to win the game. If you like him at +1800, go to Sportsbook.ag and get much better odds. They’re at 40-1 as of right now. https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/nfl-betting/2020-season-futures-regular-season-mvp.sbk

He’s currently +6000 which is tied for 24th most likely to win among QBs. Trubisky is literally the next QB on the list at +8000 (tied with Foles). https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1973591

I’ve watched as many of his NFL games as you have. I rewatched his games against the Ravens and Cowboys today on gamepass. He was good against Dallas. He was horrible against Baltimore.

For sure. This year is his time to prove it. If he delivers, Buffalo is going to be a force in the AFC for a long time. He’s got guts, and there’s something there. That said, he’s got to get a lot better throwing the ball if he’s going to be anything more than a tease. He’s fun to watch as a neutral observer because one minute he looks like a guy who has no business on a football field, an the next minute he’s winning a game that he seemingly had no business winning. You know you’re going to say “wow” about 10 times a game with him. You just don’t know the context.

I am a Chiefs fan. I also follow the Bills. They’re a really good team with a QB who isn’t very good yet.

After 2 seasons QBa. 15-12 record, 56.3% completions, 30 TDs, 21 INTs, 5163 yards QBb. 15-11 record, 62.7%, 31 TDs, 19 INTs, 5416 yards Q) Which one do you want throwing the football for your team? A) Neither

The Texans led the Chiefs at one point in the playoffs, too. That game was still a blowout. You lose by 18 in the NFL, that qualifies as a beating.

So name another team that has a better track record of drafting QBs outside the first round than that. Cassel won 11 games with NE and took the Chiefs to the playoffs. Jimmy went to the Super Bowl, and Brissett was the starting QB for the Colts last season throwing for 3,000 yards, 18 TDs and 6 INTs while completing 61% of his passes. Those numbers should look pretty familiar.

Since drafting Brady, they’ve had Matt Cassel, Jacoby Brissett, and Jimmy G. They have literally the best track record of finding QBs in later rounds than any team by a mile.

As a Chiefs fan, I completely disagree. I couldn’t have picked a worse scenario. I knew that game would be TNF. It just seemed inevitable. That one has ‘Buffalo’s coming out party’ written all over it. I saw that game as a coin flip before the schedule came out. With it being Thursday night, I think Buffalo either wins convincingly (most likely) or totally melts down and gets torched.

Bills straight up against KC on Thursday night.

How? I just rewatched it, and there were two big penalties. Both were OPI against the Patriots. The first took away a 40 yard TD. The second took away a 20 yard gain on third down that wound up ending the drive. The other close call was a third down play where it looked like NE got a first down, but they reviewed and said he was short. Not saying they were bad calls, but every 50/50call went Buffalo’s way. Two players killed the Bills in that game. Rex Burkhead and Josh Allen.

Bruce, Andre, OJ, Jimbo

That’s not even a playoff team.

I’m not saying you’re wrong. (I wasn’t trying to “talk down” to you though I see how it came across that way so sorry about that.) I’m well aware of the fact that anyone’s picks are as good as mine. My initial reaction when the lines were posted was to jump on the Titans. That was actually the one that jumped out at me. I have learned to bet the other way when that happens. My guess is that the smaller bets come in huge on Tennessee and the big money goes Denver. There are times like this when it seems like Vegas is begging for action on one side. This is one of those times, so I’ll fade it. I’d be curious to hear any strategies you use. Some of my faves: Don't bet on games I’m emotionally invested in. For me, that means the Chiefs. I’ll play point totals, but not money line or spreads. I love the home team in East coast early games when the road team is traveling 2+ time zones. That’s more common in college football. When the O/U is unusually high, take the over and vice versa. That’s more of a CBB thing, but it still works in the NFL. NFL week 2 is the best week of the year. Bet the opposite of whatever the teams did week 1. If a team that won big plays a team that got blown out, take the points. I also like to closely follow one or two less trendy teams that I have no attachment to and get a feel for them. Never got enough of a feel for the Bills to put action on them in any given week last year. They just varied too much from week to week. I had a feeling they would be pretty good last year, so I took the over. Like I said earlier, this year I think it’ll be Carolina. Everyone seems to think they’re going to be terrible. I don’t see them being good, but 5.5 wins is a pretty low bar. I’m not 100% on this one yet, but I’m leaning heavily that way. I still really like the Bills over, so you’re probably stuck with me for a while. Just booked a trip to Vegas last night.

Vegas is so dumb. What are they thinking? Take their money.

Fade the movement if it does.

You and every other $50 player. Denver and New England all day. I’m planning on pounding the Panthers all year. Panthers over 5.5 wins in 2020 might be my new ‘Bills over 6.5 in 2019’. Boy are their message board fans going to get sick of me when I’m their problem instead of yours... Yeah. If there’s one coach in history I want to manage a truncated offseason, it’s BB. Fade him at your own risk.

Is the Thursday night game considered prime time? I guess it technically is, but gross.

I’m a Chiefs fan. I became a Bills follower because of the two bets I placed prior to the season, and I didn’t have any action on any individual Buffalo games last season. Going into the season, I saw NE as a 10-6 team and Buffalo as an 8 or 9 win team. When I made the bet, Buffalo was +1700, so I put $250 on them. That number dropped to around 1200 by the time the season started IIRC. Their win total was 6.5 and I pounded the hell out of that. It moved to 7 and might have even touched 7.5 at one point. New England shocked me by looking like a juggernaut to start the season, but they wound up being about who I expected by the time the season ended. I vastly underestimated their defense and special teams’ ability to pull games out of the fire. I’m not the first guy to get burned betting against BB, but I still feel like it was a good value at those odds.

For sure, but it’s not a stretch to say that’s why it’s burned into my memory. Things work both ways, but you always remember the losses better. I had a much larger bet on the Bills winning over 6.5 games, and I remember feeling like stealing the week 1 Jets game iced that one. (It still didn’t pay as much as the division win would have, though.)