Billl

This is one of the biggest myths about gambling. People think Vegas sets the line based on something other than what they believe will happen in order to get even money on both sides. That is patently false. The line absolutely gets set based on what Vegas thinks will happen. Now Vegas would love it if they could get even money on both sides. The lines may move very slightly in order to even things up a bit, but Vegas can’t get away with trying to middle the public at the expense of offering a line they don’t believe in. The reason is simple. Professional gamblers exist. Let’s say that Vegas thinks the Bills have a 60% chance of winning but the public drinks the New England Kool Ade, so Vegas would have to make NE the favorite in order to balance the action. The professional gamblers would HAMMER Buffalo +175 at the last minute. Millions of dollars would come in on Buffalo, and suddenly 75% of the action would be on the Bills at +175. Vegas would lose its ass if that was their strategy, and Vegas didn’t become Vegas by losing. That being the case, I can assure you that the sharpest minds in the industry think the Bills have roughly a 1 in 3 chance of winning the division. They think the Chiefs and Ravens are nearly locks to make the playoffs. The expectation is that New England wins the East with Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Tennessee also making the postseason. Cleveland is next in line if someone slips up. I feel like Buffalo should be the third best team in the AFC, but if there’s a gun to my head I’m following Vegas and rolling with NE.

Minshew was pretty damn good for a rookie who got no first team reps in the offseason. If Josh throws for 21 TDs, 6 INTs, and 3,300 yards while completing 61% of his passes next year, his biggest supporters will be taking victory laps all over TBD. Minshew did that in 12 starts and managed to run for 350 yards to boot.

19 consecutive winning seasons says he’s a great GM. 17 division titles says he’s a great GM. 9 Super Bowl appearances and 6 Super Bowl rings say he’s a great GM. $100 bet on New England to win the division pays $91. That same bet on the Bills pays $175, so Vegas thinks New England is about twice as likely to win the division as Buffalo. I’ve said several times that I think Buffalo is the best team in the division. I haven’t seen anyone on this site pick NE to win it.That probably means Vegas is going to clean up on people sleeping on BB.

You should at least be on the same page as your own post. You’ve said in this thread that BB was able to win 11 games with a backup QB because of the stacked roster. Then you say he’s nothing special as a GM. Which is it? Who do you think built that stacked roster? New England had one of the best defenses in the league last season. They had probably the best special teams in the league last season. You can win a lot of games with those two things even if your offense sucks. Hell, Buffalo’s offense sucked last year and their special teams were mediocre and they won 10 games. There’s a reason the Patriots are the favorites to win the AFCE in Vegas. I think the Bills win the division, but it’s still going to be a tough putt.

So he’s not a genius because he build a dominant roster?

The people wanting to declare the Patriots dead need to get on the same page. Some keep talking about how bad he is at drafting. Others want to say that the only reason he won so many games with Cassel is because of the incredible roster he built. He built the roster that was good enough to win 11 games with a backup QB. Everyone has been asking what QB he plans to draft or sign that could make them a good team. Nobody is considering that BB might believe in Stidham. He’s had 2 years to prepare for this eventuality. Nothing he’s done would lead me to believe he’s hell bent on overhauling the QB position.

The only guy dumber than the guy who won a Super Bowl is the guy who’s won the division 4 of the past 5 seasons?

Just for context, he had 147 combined runs and sacks in 2019. Essentially, he fumbled once every 9 times he didn’t hand the ball off or throw it. When you start factoring in the times he didn’t get tackled (9 rushing TDs, several kneel downs, dozens of times running out of bounds, sliding, etc.) it’s got to be closer to 1 in 5 hits that he coughs it up. He’s been remarkably lucky to lose so few, but if I’m the opposing DC, I want him running the ball. I tell my guys to force him to the middle of the field if he runs. Give him a few extra yards, but make him take a hit because he’ll put it on the ground eventually.

His motion has become very slow, as he has to reach back more to get anything behind the kicks. I’m a Chiefs fan and have probably seen 99% of his career punts. He’s a great guy. His kids go to the same school as mine. I don’t know him personally, but I do see him around. He’s a really well liked player and respected member of the community. If he had anything at all left in the tank the Chiefs wouldn’t have let him go.

Colquitt is almost 38 years old, has made $40,000,000 in his career in the league, and has multiple local endorsement deals in Kansas City where he, his wife, and his kids have lived for 16 years. He’s not moving to Buffalo to compete for a job that would pay him the veteran minimum for one season that may not even happen. He’ll take a cushy job with a local television affiliate and call it a career.

He was 27th in net punting and had multiple punts blocked. He’s washed.

Never take meaningful snaps again? Where do people come up with this? He’s 100% healthy right now by all accounts.

Green was having one of the best seasons of his career before he got hurt in 2018. In 9 games he had better numbers than Brown had in 16.

Brown is easily replaceable. AJ Green’s upside is not.

It was absolutely performance related. He’s going to be in the Chiefs ring of honor, but he’s been a shell of himself for two seasons. Takes forever to kick it and has no pop in his leg when he does.

If there’s salary room, of course it would be a no-brainer trade. Green has been about equally productive while playing 12 fewer games and at about 60% physically. If he returns to full strength, he’s twice the player. If he doesn’t, he’s still at least equal.

Great pick

Look at that value.

I think plenty of QBs have potential. What’s lacking are coaches who have the ability and available time to spend grooming them.

This can’t be true. I was just told by numerous posters here that his tweets made it less likely that he was traded rather than more likely.

There’s just no way that happens, right? If it does, it’s absolute malpractice. Allen misses games pretty much every year and has since high school. You can’t risk rolling a guy like Barkley out there to win a couple of games and expect to win the division.

I don’t think anyone is saying he’s the best pick in team history. The topic is WORST picks, and there is no way he belongs on that list. Hell, the three players taken ahead of him were Clowney, Bortles, and Greg Robinson. You can make a case that Watkins was the best value of the group. Seven years in, he’s a starter for the Super Bowl champs. If you can’t find a worse draft pick by the Bills than that, you aren’t looking. Looks to me like his production is closest to Allen Robinson who is the #1 WR for the Bears right now.

A lot of people are missing the boat here and want to act like the only value of the pick is what it can be traded for. The Bills have the worst backup QB in the league. The idea would be to improve the backup spot first. If you can then get a draft haul for him down the line, so much the better. The reality is that only a few coaches/organizations have proven to be developers of QBs. Andy Reid developed McNabb. Then he drafted and made Kolb look competent before fleecing the Cardinals. Then he managed to get the best out of Vick. Then he turned Alex Smith into a franchise QB. Then he drafted Mahomes and turned him into the MVP a year later. If Reid drafts a backup this season, there’s a pretty good chance that someone will want him in a couple years. Reid has the bandwidth to work with a project QB, as Mahomes is past that part of the process. I don’t see McBeane being able to pull of something like this yet. They don’t have a reputation of being QB gurus, so teams are less likely to covet the backup QB of a coach who is more of a defensive minded guy. They are also still working on developing their current project QB, so it’s unlikely that they currently have the ability to take on a new project. Now if Josh breaks out and becomes a bonafide star, the equation could change. The Bills could take a late round flyer in 2021 who is heavy on tools but lacking in production and develop him. If he shows out in preseason or has a couple of nice games in backup duty, QB needy teams may prefer to pay for a 25 year old who has already had a few years to develop and could be ready to go rather than try to take their chances on a 22 year old who may or may not be ready in three years.

If he had the exact same current numbers but had done so while playing in Buffalo the entire time, he would be 6th in franchise history for receiving TDs and 8th in yards...and he’s still only 26. He’s very likely to end his career with more career yards and TDs than any Bills WR in history not named Andre Reed. Unless the Bills have never had a #1 or #2 WR other than Reed, Watkins is a better player than he gets credit for on here. He hasn’t lived up to his draft position, but most top 10 picks don’t. He’s pacing for a career of around 600 catches, 9,000 yards, and 60 TDs. That’s basically Eric Moulds.

You completely ignored the question. In one post, you said that his actions make it less likely that he will be traded. When I called you on it, you then said you expected him to be traded. Now you’re saying they hold all the cards and he can sit out and come back a shell of himself. I’m telling you that none of these things will happen. He’s going to be traded, and it’s going to be because of his refusal to sit quietly back and let other people tell him who he has to work for and what the terms will be.