Billl

Look at the Colts when Manning got hurt. They won the Suck for Luck sweepstakes and were a playoff team soon thereafter. Losing elite QBs sends teams into a tailspin. Losing elite WRs hurts, but Mahomes kept rolling when Tyreek was out. In his first ever game (week 17 at Denver in 2017), the Chiefs rested nearly all of their starters. Albert Wilson and Demetrius Harris combined for 13 catches and 220 yards against one of the best defenses in the league. WRs are gasoline, but QBs are the fire.

Like just about every other problem in the NFL, drafting a star QB and paying him a rookie contract is the solution. If Goff craters, the team will suck next season no matter what he’s being paid. If the Rams draft the next big thing to replace him, they can afford to keep him around on his contract for a while because their total outlay for the QB position will be manageable.

Clowney must be a lot smarter than he’s given credit for. I guess Nuk sucks too.

The returning QBs finished 28th, 29th, and 32nd last year in QBR. Unless you’re really high on Stidham, this group has the potential to be historically bad. (Yes I understand that people here are going to take issue with the rating system, but it’s widely used and removes subjectivity, so it’s good enough for this post.) https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2019&week=100&category=PASSING&opp=0&sort=10&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=1

I don’t think the current AFCE is exactly the pantheon of NFL QBs right now. Unless a couple guys make big jumps, it may be the worst collection of QB play a division has ever seen.

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/josh-allen/9962

Hunt got kicked off the team in the middle of a Super Bowl run for pushing a girl who got in his face. Tyreek didn’t do any of the stuff he was accused of. He has full custody of all of his kids. The woman who accused him (same woman both times) has no custody of them. She’s a gold digging psychopath.

The ball doesn’t have to move forward. Once the arm starts moving forward, that’s all that matters.

Show me a franchise NFL QB with college stats worse than Allen’s and I'll show you 10 who dwarf them. It’s hard to find good NFL QBs based only in college production, but it’s incredibly easy to predict QBs who won’t make it in the NFL based on college production. Literally nobody is complaining that Bills fans prefer Josh to Tua, and literally nobody is confusing the two of them for Lou Gehrig and Cal Ripken.

The guy probably doesn’t even post on message boards. He can’t possibly know more than us about QB play.

You love that chart, but nobody has said big stats in college mean NFL success. They’re simply a prerequisite in nearly very case historically. Having great eyesight doesn’t mean you can be an NFL QB, but being blind means you can’t.

It’s really close IMO. I will say that those who have not seen many Bills games do miss out by not seeing him in action. There’s no denying that he’s an exciting player who plays with a different style that is fun to watch. I don’t know what it’s worth in terms of team success, but it’s certainly endearing to fans. He’s kind of the opposite of Cousins and Prescott who put up numbers and win a lot of games but whose styles of play seem to lack a certain level of passion.

I’d probably go Miami, Buffalo, New York, New England. That said, any order is reasonable. I was watching the Cleveland game yesterday after the thread about it. There was a play deep in Browns territory where Allen scrambled and held the ball loosely. He got hit and fumbled. The ball bounced off a Brown, and a Lineman for the Bills fell on it a foot from the goal line. Josh ran a QB sneak on the next play for a TD. It was a terrible play by Josh, but it wound up being a TD on the stat sheet because he got incredibly lucky and was bailed out. So yes, it’s accurate to say that he had more rushing TDs than Lamar, but I think most neutral observers place very little importance on that fact because the 4 TD runs he had from the 1 yard line are more a function of Daboll calling QB sneaks as opposed to other teams who hand it to their RB in those situations. If those teams called for sneaks the way Daboll does, every QB in the league would have more rushing TDs.

You nailed it. Comp picks should be the natural result of having a deep roster. It shouldn’t be the goal. The teams who consistently get the most comp picks get them because they have a core of elite players around whom they build interchangeable, affordable pieces. When you’ve got your QB and your other cornerstone positions locked down, you become flexible enough to grab value in the draft rather than chase need. (Everyone preaches BPA, but very few are able to stick to it because they have holes to fill.) When you have religiously drafted BPA, your roster tends not to have holes in it. Fewer holes means fewer expensive FA acquisitions, and that leaves money to keep signing your elite talent. It also gives you the ability to let them walk when they get too expensive. Eventually, you wind up letting good players go because you have better and/or cheaper players ready to fill their spots. That leads to comp picks, and the cycle repeats itself. You want to get comp picks because you don’t have room for all of your talented players. You don’t want to cut players because you would prefer to grab a couple of later round picks.

Fitzpatrick > Brady

I love how you’re using the Vikings as an argument for why you should do what the Redskins did with Cousins. The team that paid Cousins has done way better than the team who wouldn’t pay him.

That’s true. I should have removed that part. I added the disclaimer at the bottom when I realized the discrepancy in the charts we were referencing, but I left the first line in.

I understand that. It’s why I specifically noted that I was referencing something different. I thought it was interesting that there wasn’t a discernible correlation between performance against zone defenses and how often opponents used it against specific QBs. The OP insinuated that there may have been a correlation. As you noted, the data didn’t support that. I don’t know how much more I can spoon feed the fact that I agreed with you.

My post literally said “I’m referencing the chart showing their performance against zone vs man rather than how often they faced it. There doesn’t seem to by much or any correlation regarding how often they face it.” According to the data in that article, inaccurate passers perform better against zone. They don’t face more of it.

Contrary to your posting style of being an unrelentingly insufferable prick, not every comment is a fist fight. I literally agreed with your comment, but don’t let that stop you from doing what you do. I’d say you could read the entire post before spouting off and looking like a jackass, but it won’t help. It seems to be all you know.

Rodgers was second, and he’s the outlier. The top 5 other than him are Newton, Bortles, Taylor, Carr, and Mariota. Not exactly a bunch of surgeons. The opposite end of the spectrum was Brees. Osweiler was next, but his numbers were horrible against both, so that doesn’t matter much. Then it was Brady, Stafford, and Cousins. There’s a pretty strong correlation. (I’m referencing the chart showing their performance against zone vs man rather than how often they faced it. There doesn’t seem to by much or any correlation regarding how often they face it.)

It’s why I’ve continually praised Whaley and McDermott for the 2017 draft even though they passed on Mahomes. They had a plan, and they executed it perfectly. The plan was to load up on draft capital to grab one of the QBs in 2018. They did exactly that and still managed to come away with a star CB in 2017 after trading back. You can fault them for not taking one of the QBs in 2017, but if Watson and Mahomes were obvious can’t miss guys, they wouldn’t have been there at 10. You can fault them for identifying Allen as their guy instead of trading up higher for Mayfield or Darnold or passing on Jackson if one or more of those guys ultimately turn out to be a better player. That’s a matter of talent evaluation and development rather than of draft strategy, though. I see no way to fault them for the way they executed the plan, as that was flawless. For all the crap he gets, turning the 2017 first round pick into Tre White, a third rounder in 2017, and an extra first rounder in 2018 was pretty impressive.

Yeah, that was bad. The timing of the play was a little off, so I can sort of see how they could have thought the snap hit Ivory or something in real time. No excuse to not get it right after the review, though. Even worse is they confirmed it rather than just saying the call stands.

2017 they drafted Mahomes 2018 they traded to the Bills for the Mahomes pick 2019 they traded for Frank Clark 2020 they drafted Edwards-Helaire

You must be thinking of a different game unless it got overturned. The only fumble in that game was on a scramble when Allen was two yards downfield and got hit from behind. He had the ball tucked but still lost it. The play wasn’t even remotely similar.