FireChans

Somehow other teams manage to not let them play one of their best offensive games of the year against them in crunch time. Best offensive game of the 2023 Chiefs in the playoffs by EP AND fifth best of their season was against … the Bills. Best offensive game of the 2022 Bengals in the playoffs by EP AND third best of their season was against… the Bills. Best offensive game of the 2021 Chiefs in the playoffs by EP AND third best of their season was against … the Bills. Best offensive game of the 2020 Chiefs in the playoffs by EP and their best game of their season was against … the Bills. And honestly it makes sense. We are the only team with a real argument of having a QB on Mahomes level or even better. Yet we keep losing in the playoffs. Is Allen a choker? Obviously not, he has a pretty incredible playoff resume. Deductively, it’s probably the defenses’ fault and the numbers bear that out. They choke and play terrible. Every year. And they are not just bad, but legitimately the worst playoff defense against them. Every year. And every year trots out “we had someone injured,” or some other excuse. What are the odds the Chiefs have their best offensive game in the postseason vs the Bills in the AFCCG? Pretty high probably, right?

The bottom line is that no matter the year, no matter the circumstance, no matter how good the defense is in the regular season, the defense has always played bad vs the Chiefs/Bengals. you can sit there and say it was because this guy was hurt, or that guy was hurt, but it happened. We will be able to play that game this year too, if it happens. But it won’t change the fact it keeps happening.

I have gone through it before, and basically every game against the Chiefs/Bengals in the postseason has been one of their best offensive games of the year, if not THE best.

100% agree. Case in point, no one can ever agree if any OC is good because Josh Allen is that dude and we end up ranking really well regardless. I will just say the biggest thing an OC can do with Josh is not get in their own way. @BADOLBILZ is right that Daboll did sometimes. Dorsey did too imo. And we all remember Brady’s NIGHTMARISH trick play vs the Ravens. But tbh I’m encouraged that Brady is the best of the bunch, whether that’s only a slight difference or not.

A proven slot? Shakir had like 8 good games and 600 yards in 2023. You have probably 100 posts calling this the most unproven WR group in the last 50 years all offseason. Now Shakir was this proven slot commodity. Incredible. FWIW, Shakir missed the Houston game when Mack got those deep shots. Him and Coleman were basically all we had that game. So yeah, had to throw to somebody. Probably saved the season because Beane woke up to the fact that the WR group was garbage.

The take that Gabe Davis was OC poison is ok, but what @BADOLBILZ doesn’t realize or is ignoring is that when Brady took over, he basically cut Gabe out of the game. Gabe had 5.5 targets per game under Dorsey. He went down to 3.7 targets per game under Brady. So while Dorsey was SADDLED with Gabe as a boundary WR, he still made him a focal point. Brady of course de-emphasized Gabe the human banana peel while Dorsey featured him. That’s not interchangeable.

I would kind of read these two takes back to back. Dorsey didn’t choose the pegs but it’s Brady’s fault that Mack freaking Hollins was our only boundary WR with experience pre-Cooper trade?

Meh, that's how you get into "whoever has the ball last wins" games. I'd prefer to shorten games, try to double up a possession and then win that way, similar to our Chiefs game this year. We outpossessed them by almost 10 minutes, and had an extra drive on them. They ran 51 plays to our 71.

Poyer and Hyde were both All-Pro in 2021. Tre was a year removed from his All-Pro season in 2020. Hyde and Poyer's would come a year later in 2021. They were all on the field in 2020. Hyde and Poyer were together with Taron and Milano in 2021. Are we counting Milano and Von as past All-Pros? If it would help to be specific, we had multiple defenses in the past with All-Pro caliber players in their primes playing. How many of those do we have this year? 1, maybe 2 if Benford gets it (I don't think he will).

He’s an every stat god. But I don’t think those actually adequately capture his greatness.

If we are going to grade predictions, this one was pretty spot on lol. Bills had their run/pass ratio closest to 50-50 since 2019. Their lowest plays per drive since 2019. Josh’s lowest passing total since 2019.

Very badly. we have had borderline elite regular seasons defenses with multiple All Pros fall apart in the postseason. Now we have a mediocre defense without any All Pros heading into the postseason. We are going to need to run the ball and keep opposing teams off the field… a lot.

AV doesnt do it for me personally. Theres really no stat that appreciably can tell the difference between a Joe Burrow sitting the pocket and hitting an 8 yard out on third and 7 to Chase and a Josh Allen dodging a free rusher, rolling to his right outrunning an edge rusher, then hitting Mack Hollins squatting in a soft zone while throwing across his body for 8 yards on 3rd and 7. Both plays are good, but they are not equal. PFF tries to quantify that difference but they kinda stink at it.

I think Josh for his career is roughly worth 8-10 wins on his own. Like if you put him on the Giants or the Raiders to start the year, they are both playoff teams. He makes the entire team better. The HC’s are more aggressive because Josh rewards them for being aggressive. He makes the defense better because every third or 4th down he converts is another drive they stay off the field. He is a one man offense. A weird mixture of Elway and Cam. He’s 1 of 1. There is not a player individually worth more imo.

It may shock you to find out, but everything we talk about here is moot lol.

No it shouldn’t be. Especially if they beat them this week. I’m just saying why there is no buzz about him being MVP. I think he has a case if he wins this week. Like a really good top 3 case.

The goal shouldn't be "how do we give Sean McDermott the best chance to win a Superbowl." The goal should be "how do we give the Buffalo Bills the best chance to win a Superbowl."

It's no fun to wave the white flag early. It's good to know that you stand on business that Nick Sirianni is a great HC and better than McD because he has the 5th all time winning percentage, especially because he is doing it with a clearly worse QB than Allen. Hell, he even has more conference championship game wins, more Super Bowl appearances and has never missed the playoffs in his career or finished with less than 9 wins. The Eagles would be crazy to let that guy go. The Steelers haven't fired a HC ever and they last won a Superbowl when Obama was inaugurated for the first time! What if he wins a million Superbowls in 20 years? Perish the thought!

I would argue a couple. Ty Johnson had legitimately the best game of his career against Detroit. That's partly how Brady deployed him that game, especially in certain packages and looks that we hadn't seen before. I would say Cook has been optimized. Going from 6 TD's to 17 TD's on 30 less touches is pretty impressive. Shakir has a career year on less snaps than last year. Sure his outrageous efficiency stats took a dip, but that's not a knock on Brady but a by-product of that being completely unsustainable on high usage. Mack Hollins has been optimized. I don't think he's a good WR, at all. But he's making positive impacts the way he has been deployed, which is better than we can say about complete zeros like Sherfield and Harty who Dorsey had no idea how to use. I think the OL is playing the best they ever have since 2020. That's partly Brady. Josh has been optimized. I believe part of that, the lion's share even is Josh, as well as the departure of Diggs but I find it hard to give no credit to Brady. I'm not saying Brady is perfect. Samuel has obviously been a DISASTER for whatever reason, hurt or Brady has no idea what to do with him. Kincaid has been a complete disappointment too, but I didn't really love the pick anyway tbh. I don't agree that this offensive talent is much better than 2022 or 2023. Or that the circumstances are much more ideal. Hell, Brady has Mack Hollins as the WR leading the team in snaps. He had to integrate an actual good boundary WR midseason instead of having an entire offseason. If you want to argue Dorsey was hamstrung a little bit by his talent constraints, I don't disagree. I do disagree it has been all rainbows for Brady. His best WR going into the season was a raw 2nd round rookie (who has missed significant time with injury). His new best WR wasn't in the building until October (and missed games with injury). His #1 WR on the field is Mack Hollins. If the Bills were like 8th in points, there would be lots of good reasons why they stepped back this season, and most of them wouldn't be on the OC. They didn't, they are maybe better than ever. And Cooper is a large part of that imo as well as Josh taking another step but so is Brady.

I think Darnold is actually kinda deserving of consideration, ESPECIALLY if they win the #1 seed. What holds him back is kinda complex to me. He's kinda been a bum everywhere else and it's not like the Vikings are a perennial bad team, they had good years with Cousins who was fine to good but no superstar, so he gets less credit for their spectacular season. It's the Jimmy G spector hanging over Brock Purdy's career effect. They also have really good talent. And, maybe most importantly, the MVP is a narrative award. The entire early season narrative with Minnesota was "how long can Darnold pretend he's a good QB," then when MVP talks started heating up in late October/early November, they dropped 2 against the Lions and the Rams. Now it's almost January and no one has talked about him being MVP because the narrative was never cultivated.

So because you didn't answer my questions, but instead posted this, I'm going to assume you do think Sean is a miracle-working head coach. A one in a million. Well, I think your wrong. Not only is your stat wrong (he's 17th all-time) https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/ But he's ahead of guys like Andy Reid, Sean McVay, Sean Payton, Bill Walsh, Tom Landry, Parcells, Bill Belichick, Tomlin, both Harbaugh's, Joe Gibbs. Do you think he's a better coach than all those guys? Nick Sirianni is currently 5th all time in the NFL in winning percentage. Is he the fifth best coach in NFL history? He's far superior to McD in winning percentage. He's the greatest active coach currently and only a few wins more to catch Lombardi? Maybe he will be the greatest coach ever. But that's weird, you called Sirianni a bum earlier. Apparently it's not all about winning percentage. Odd.

Hot coordinator please! I'm honestly open to promoting Brady before I let him leave. Or Brad Johnson of course. You brought up the Andy Reid comparison. The Eagles fired Andy and won a SB while he continued to choke away playoff appearances in KC until he got a generational QB who arguably is the best in the league. Do you think the Eagles were planning the SB parade in 2017 and saying "we shouldn't have fired Andy Reid!" (the Chiefs lost in the WC to the Marcus Mariota Titans that year). I don't. Would you be upset if McDermott went to the Falcons and won 3 SB's with Penix in 2034? I wouldn't, I would be very happy with him because I think he's a good dude and a good coach. Josh Allen is clearly a top 2 QB in the NFL. A generational QB. Finding a QB like that is FAR MORE difficult than finding a good HC. It's not even close. How a Bills fan who watched this team die every season before it started for 20 years because they didn't even have a good QB, let alone a great one is bananas. How many coaches can you list who are in McD's realm in coaching ability? How many QB's can you list in Josh's realm? Obviously, one list is far shorter than the other. Your comparison is not good. How many coaches could get this defense to 26th in yards per drive, 16th in points allowed per drive, and 29th in 3rd down stops? I can't pull their DVOA, but I would imagine its not elite either. Probably a lot. How many active coaches could win 12+ games with Josh Allen as their QB? I think lots. Do you think McD is a miracle worker coach dragging the best QB in the NFL and the MVP to the playoffs? We all know why we are afraid if the Bengals sneak into the playoffs. It's not because Josh is our QB. We all know why we are afraid if we have to play the Ravens in the second round. It's not because Josh is our QB. We all know why we are afraid to go to Arrowhead for the AFCCG. It's not because Josh is our QB.

It's going to be a back. Not sure Mitch can throw past the sticks.

Josh Allen's progression has been a huge component of this offense, there's no doubt about that. There's also the departure of Diggs who was almost certainly demanding usage. The trick play in Baltimore was indefensible but we haven't seen something so stupid since. Correct. Brady is an optimizer, not an innovator. He's taken a JAG like Ty Johnson and put him in a position to be the most efficient of his career. There's certainly an aspect of Josh helping elevate these guys too, and Brady isn't perfect (that deep fade to Shakir needs to exit the playbook), but Brady is making these guys more than the sum of their parts. Which tbh is the best you can reasonable expect without getting lucky on a true offensive mastermind.