FireChans

The Bills need to hire a former failed offensive HC so they don’t have to worry about them getting poached.

You could pay Cook, let Cooper walk, trade for DK and go for it all imo.

Can we put this on my tombstone?

Good post. i didn’t really read it, but i agree.

You can look at the Bills defensive stats per drive and red zone% for answers to all your questions. They are 11th in points allowed but 16th in points per drive. They are also 26th in yards per drive, 24th in plays allowed per drive, and 25th in time allowed per drive. Fifth in starting field position. They are 17th in red zone percentage. They are first in TO% and 23rd in score%. They are 29th in first downs allowed. The numbers are clear. Teams can and do convert on them and drive on them, (not always needing to get to third down, because again, 29th in first downs) but they stiffen up a bit in the RZ to a closer to average defense. Their raw numbers are beneficiaries from taking the ball away the best in the NFL. If they keep up the takeaways like they have been, they are average to below average. If the TOs dry up, they will just be bad. It's very interesting because going back to the last 6 years, the team with the most takeaways in the NFL ranked (in points per drive): 1st 4th 4th 5th 3rd 1st We have to force the most TO's in the NFL to maintain being smack dab league average at that stat.

It's not what the hive mind has convinced themselves of. It's the way it is. It should go to a skill position player because their opportunity for MVP is completely limited. They could just go full hockey and call it "Best QB" and "best skill position player" awards. They don't but that's effectively how it goes and imo it should be that way. I don't think it's appropriate for a QB to win both MVP and OPOY.

OPOY is a skill position award because it’s near impossible for a skill position player to win MVP.

If this team bids against themselves give Mack a contract like this, I will lose my mind.

He is another Ramon Humber. a big slow terrible LB vet. Always gotta have one on the roster.

Lamar has turned into a playoff choker in the Monken era too though.

Probably 5 minutes.

Do you think I would post something inaccurate??????

I know I know, we don't have Andy Reid or Chris Jones or Travis Kelce. But let's look at the similarities: Major questions surrounding QB after trading away their best WR. QB then plays at an MVP level, and arguably the best blend of big play and smart play of their career with a less than star studded supporting cast Questionable defenses Let's look at: Mahomes' 2022 top 6 pass catchers Kelce Juju MVS Mckinnon Watson Gray Josh's 2024 top 6 pass catchers Shakir Coleman Kincaid Hollins Knox Cooper Not too much difference there, outside of Kelce. Now let's compare their numbers and the offenses numbers: 2022 Mahomes 5608 total yards, 45 TD's, 12 INT's, 5 fumbles, 105.2 passer rating, 79 QBR 14-3 record 2024 Allen 4262 total yards, 41 TD's, 6 INT's, 5 fumbles, 101.4 passer rating, 76.7 QBR 13-3 record Obviously yardage is the starkest difference, but the 2024 Bills were much run heavier, with Mahomes passing 165 more times. And they did have Kelce as well, as above. Now let's look at their offenses: 2024 Bills offense 31.8 PPG (2nd in NFL) 5846 yards (9th in NFL) 2022 Chiefs offense 29.2 PPG (1st in NFL) 7032 yards (1st in NFL) This Bills offense, with worse talent IMO put up more points than that SB winning, MVP having team. Yardage again the biggest difference. And now finally, let's look at the defense. There is a lot said about the style of play the Chiefs have now, but their 2022 defense was most certainly not elite. 2022 Chiefs 16th in points 11th in yards 11th in yards per drive 21st in points per drive 2024 Bills 11th in points 20th in yards 26th in yards per drive 16th in points per drive So there you have it. Both teams had offseason departures in talent and honestly questionable regular season defenses, but with their QB's playing at an MVP level, the best year in their careers, they managed to post one of the best records in the conference. Now its time to see if history can repeat itself and Allen can continue his flawless play into the postseason, and the defense can step up when it needs to.

Rooting for the Broncos to lose while Miami plays the Jets seems like REALLY bad juju if the Bengals have already won Saturday. I will be rooting for the Broncos to win, the Dolphins to win and the Bengals to lose. It is far more important the Bengals stay out above all else.

This is why I always use per drive numbers. It effectively controls for offensive and ST performance. Take the 2023 Jets. 12th in points 3rd in yards. Everyone agrees they probably weren’t the 12th best defense in the NFL but really hamstrung by one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Their per drive stats are all 2nd best in the NFL except for points, which is 4th. With the 24th best starting position. Thats elite defensive numbers and fits the eye test. And the 2024 Bills are bang on below average in everything per drive except for points, where they are 16th and starting field position where they are fifth best. Which as you said, fits exactly. It’s also why I push back on how good the Bills defense has been over the years. They were just top 10 last year. The only year they were truly great on a per drive basis was 2021 and that coincided with the worst defensive collapse in franchise history.

I know everyone is worried about the Ravens but I’ll be honest, I still fear the Bengals more than them. I think the Bengals are more likely to drop 40 on us. Now maybe we are more likely drop 40 on them but I still don’t like that kind of game with this team.

Have we factored in that maybe all the Bills opponents were playing possum and not trying to get yards or not turn the ball over super hard? Bills are 20th in yards allowed BTW. 16th in points allowed per drive 26th in yards allowed per drive 24th in plays allowed per drive 25th in time allowed per drive. They are not good. They are bad.

I think there's a shot that Allen is MVP and Lamar is first team AP QB. Has that ever happened before?

Ok lmao. Yards allowed in the playoffs vs the Chiefs 2020 The Bills had the most yards and points allowed in the playoffs to the Chiefs 2021 The Bills had the most yards allowed and tied for the most points allowed in the playoffs to the Chiefs 2023 The Bills had the most points allowed and the 3rd most yards allowed in the playoffs to the Chiefs. Nice metric. One of the worst teams at allowing yards/points to the Chiefs in the playoffs every year we face them. By your own admission, this is bulletproof because those are ironclad measures of productivity. Lets look at Bengals v Chiefs 2021 The Bengals had the second most points allowed and least yards allowed in the playoffs to the Chiefs 2022 The Bengals had the least points allowed and the second most yards allowed in the playoffs to the Chiefs Of course, they are 1-1 in those games compared to our 0-3. So irrefutable evidence that the Bills are worse at stopping the Chiefs than the Bengals, right? In the playoffs? The Chiefs in the Mahomes era is 3-2 when the opposing team scores 30+ in the playoffs. I guess they weren't pushed all that hard in those two losses.

The Bills scored 15 points through the the first 56 minutes of the 2020 AFCCG game. Why are you pretending these were all back and forth shootouts? The Chiefs dropped 38 on us that game and the Bills put together some garbage time scores at the end. You don’t like EP? Fine. The 2023 divisional round was the best Chiefs postseason game by yards per play. By like a mile. For context, the Chiefs offense averaged 7.6 yards per play in the 13 seconds game. They averaged 7.7 in the 2024 playoff game against us. Against the Dolphins? 5.5 Against the Ravens? 4.4 Against the Niners? 5.8 Even in that Philly Super Bowl, they only were at 6.4. Out of their 5 highest playoff games in yards per play since 2020 3 of them are the Bills lol.

I’m repeating myself because you said this: When the facts of the last 4 years don’t bear that out, at all. the 2023 Chiefs played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It ranked fifth by EP on their season. Their next highest playoff game was 7th in the WC round, and their other two games were 11th and 12th. The 2022 Bengals played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It’s ranked 3rd by EP on their season. Their other two playoff games were 10th and 16th. the 2021 Chiefs played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It’s ranked 3rd by EP on their season. Their other two playoff games were 9th and 12th. the 2020 Chiefs played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It’s ranked 1st on EP on their season. Their other two playoff games were 9th and 19th. So no. The odds of the Chiefs having one of their best offensive performances in 2024 vs the Bills or vs any other team are not both “very high.” It’s clearly higher for the Bills because that’s what always happens. And while you can say, “no the clear and obvious conclusion isn’t that the defense is bad, it’s that the Bills offense makes the Chiefs offense play better,” it’s clearly wrong. Go look up the caliber of teams where those teams put up similar numbers. 2020 Chiefs second best EP offensive game - Raiders with the 30th ranked defense 2021 Chiefs second and fourth best EP offensive game - Raiders x 2, 26th ranked defense with a mid season HC firing 2023 Chiefs 4th and 6th best EP offensive game - Raiders with a mid season fired HC and the Jets I did the EP above and below the Bills performance. It’s Jets/Raiders esque, which tells you all you need to know. You could say Mahomes gets up for Ralph Bisacchia and Derek Carr like he does for the Bills in the playoffs. Or you could make the more correct conclusion that our defense plays at a bad teams’ level against the Chiefs.

I’m not assuming anything. what I am saying is that the Chiefs have their best offensive playoff game against the Bills, EVERY playoff when they play the Bills. That’s a complete and total fact. Zero assumptions made. What is also a fact is that they DON’T have their best offensive playoff game against other playoff teams in the years they play the Bills. And in fact, they have had some pretty notable offensive playoff stinkers. The 2021 AFCCG against the Bengals. The 2020 Super Bowl which may have been Mahomes worst statistical game of his career. You are arguing the “why” that happens, (paraphrasing) that they have to bring their offensive A-game when they play the Bills and maybe only the Bills. I don’t think that argument really bears out tbh. I think this is honestly a secret defense of ball control McDermott offense.

Huh? I just showed that the last 3 times we played the Chiefs, their best offensive game in the postseason was against us. They played other teams during those postseasons. They didn’t post their best offensive game against them. They posted them against us. I’m honestly confused.

John Fox with Peyton Manning: 38-10 John Fox with everyone else: 95-113 He must’ve installed an INCREDIBLE culture those 3 years in Denver. Luckily, it coincided with Peyton Manning coming to town.

are we sure he’s healthy? I get platooning Mack from their perspective because they just love Mack, but it is odd. Also, odd that he was HEAVILY featured in the Rams, so much so that he got like half his Bills targets then fell out of the gameplan again.