FireChans

This is not a refutation. Burrow DID get hurt and the Bengals WOULD have probably gotten a top 3 pick in your system. So again, they would almost certainly take advantage of a bad team that needs to take a shot on a QB. Answer my question. What Pats team does Drake Maye want to go to? The Pats got the greatest QB of all time in the sixth round. They got lucky. Most great QBs go far higher than that.!Do you think they thought Brady was going to be that guy when they passed on him 5 times in the same draft?

Why would the Bengals not trade the #2 overall pick for 3 firsts and a second from a team with a bleak future like the Pats? How does that help “reward” the top QB prospects? There are two ways to get top prospects in the NFL draft. Lose a lot, or trade a lot of future picks (thus doubling down on a potentially losing proposition). Your plan would eliminate the first option and thus bad teams would be even WORSE more often than not. Because they would be FORCED to trade a bunch of picks that could potentially make their team better in order to have a shot at a top QB prospect. It would effectively cripple most bad organizations in perpetuity. Your system even theoretically does not hold up to scrutiny, let alone in practice. It wouldn’t work and it would be counterproductive to “rewarding the top prospects” entirely. Would Drake Maye rather go to the 2024 Pats as is, or the 2024 Pats that had to trade pick 14, their 2025 first and second and 2026 second? Everyone knows the answer. Dropping you down to -1/10.

None of the other players accounting for 50+ TDs had to play Patty.

Without injury Joe Burrows and the Bengals in all likelihood would be drafting near the end of the 1st round. Bad example IMO. Without being the worst team in the NFL, they wouldn't have Joe Burrow at all!. Trevor Lawrence almost makes my argument for me IMO. To good to be watching the playoffs instead of participating IMO. 9 - 8 record doesn't get the job done. They made the playoffs, and won a game against Herbert (another top 10 QB drafted on a bad team) his second season, and only missed the playoffs this season because he got hurt. In any case, your plan still wouldn't work. What would happen is a team with a franchise QB that barely missed the playoffs (Bengals/Jags last season for example) would get a top 3 pick, and they would trade it for multiple first rounders to a really bad team without a franchise QB. So what you'd really be doing is sending a prospect like Caleb or Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye to a bad team made even worse with depleted draft capital in the future. The system works. Your system does not.

Is there an epidemic of blocked kicks in the NFL that I'm not aware of?

Your opinion is wrong. Jags record 3 seasons before picking Lawrence: 5-11 6-10 1-15 Jags record since picking Lawrence: 3-14 9-8 9-8 Yes Urban Meyer sucked as a coach. Yes Doug Pederson is better. But the Jags are better now than the garbage they were before probably 90% because of Lawrence. Hell, he had the team 66% better despite worse coaching. Bengals record 3 seasons before picking Burrow: 7-9 6-10 2-14 Bengals record since picking Burrow: 4-11 (Burrow hurt) 10-7 12-4 9-8 (Burrow hurt) Did Zach Taylor wake up and learn how to coach after the 2-14 season? Or do we think maybe Burrow by himself is worth about 8 wins? We could do this all day with the top QB's drafted. It's obvious. Sure, some of the QB's bust. Some folks even argue that the teams "ruined" the players. But they really don't. McVay made Goff look better than what he is. Jeff Fisher obviously made him look worse. But Goff is who Goff is, which is a good starter in the NFL, but not in the upper echelon. He never will be. Justin Fields will almost certainly never be good, and probably never would have been good. He may have looked better than what he was in Chicago with awesome coaching, but he wouldn't have been good. Mac Jones will never be good. He was made to look better than he was in 2021 with a team built around his strengths, but you can only hide a bad QB for long. And now we all know he sucks. Because he sucks. Brock Purdy is decent. But his system makes him look great. Just like the system made Jimmy G look great, when he wasn't. It doesn't make them better players. They are who they are. No matter how great Brock looks up 30 against a bad team with Shanahan, he's still closer to Mac Jones than Josh Allen. The game changers at QB, the guys who can turn around a franchise, sometimes despite bad coaching or management, are by and large picked in the top 10. Therefore, it makes total sense that the bad teams that may or may not have bad coaching/management get first crack at them. This is the whole point of the draft. Why should a team like the Bengals who lost their superstar QB to injury and barely missed the playoffs get that shot instead? It makes no sense.

Yeah, you’re wrong. The idea of parity is what gets fans buying tickets for crappy teams. It’s far worse for the league if crappy teams are crappy in perpetuity without the hope of getting a top flight player, namely QB. Your idea takes that all away, just so the #1 pick gets to go to a better team AND make $40M on their first contract. Who cares? The #1 pick already makes the most money. Why turn the NFL into college football where the same 3 or 4 teams are the best for 20 years? And yes, 1000% dynasties rising and falling helps the league. Because the league is a zero sum game. Every year a team wins 13 games, that means 13 teams are losing. Look how many Jags games are empty nowadays that they got Trevor. There’s your answer to what’s “better for the league.”

Every player that gets drafted to any team and you ask, “do they win a championship,” the answer will always be probably not. Why do you think it would be better for the league if NE got the first overall pick in Trevor Lawrence and the pitiful Jags got Mac Jones?

No championship is your definition of “destined for failure?” So drafting Josh Allen was a failure, I suppose.

Of what? Stafford took over on a terrible team (0-16) and led them to a better win total every single year he started there. He also led them to 3 playoff appearances and 5 seasons with a winning record, and ultimately trading him got them to the NFCCG last season. So what is he a good example of?

Fleeing the scene of a car accident is a criminal offense.

A terrible idea. A good to great QB can turn a bad franchise into a good one. See: The Bills. The NFL wants the bad teams to eventually be good. Otherwise folks stop watching. You also can’t say we’re rewarding bad teams for failure and in the same breath argue that it’s not a reward because they are bad teams and destined for failure. Pick a lane. 0/10

I too write paragraphs about things I’m not bothered by.

Do you really think that the kicking game is mathematically optimized?

Sure, that’s why you run it in practice and see what happens. I don’t deny that there’s a possibility that blocks go up and render the adjustment moot. But if blocks go up 1% and made FG’s go up 5%, you still win.

GB had 17 WR’s in his top 100 in 2020. It will be interesting to see how many there are this year. Also, @GunnerBill are you still doing QB evals? Not as fun when we aren’t in the market, but they are usually a great read.

Coaches also used to punt on their opponents 40 or kick field goals on 4th and goal from the half yard line “for a reason.” That’s why you implement the change and work on it with your kicker. I refuse to believe that this play has been optimized at random since 1940 with how much cave-man thinking occurs in football.

There are lots of obscure things about NFL field goal protocol. For example, just about every kicking unit in the NFL is 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage. This is the way it’s always been done. But this adds on an extra 7 yards every attempt. What I’m suggesting is the Bills move it a little bit close. Let’s say 5 yards. Suddenly that 50 yard FG is a 48 yarder. Suddenly that 40 yard FG is a 38 yarder. And even extra points are just a little bit easier. It the long run, this will play huge dividends. The difference between a 39 yard FG and a 41 yard FG is about 7% in conversion rate. Over the course of a few seasons, that’s a huge amount of conversions. The real secret is don’t tell anybody you’re doing this. Don’t tell the refs, don’t tell the media, don’t tell anybody. Just move up a bit and reap the rewards.

Do you think this is a top-heavy WR draft or a deep draft? I only ask because I felt that in 2020, there were some great first round players, but the real strength of the WR class was that there would be guys in the later rounds that would’ve gone much higher in different years. Do you think that’s the case this year? Or is the strength truly in the first 10 or so prospects?

Does Josh remain a cautionary tale on trading up?

There’s like 3 posters in TBD history who I actually believe have ever watched any real film.

If the goal was to make the NFL trade deadline much more exciting, moving it back always made a ton of sense. You are looking for a balance of teams to be buyers and sellers and it was far too early.

It’s Huff at a smaller deal + a third vs Reddick at a larger deal. Huff doesn’t have to be better than Reddick today to win the trade.

If the 2020 Bills got the ball back down 3 with 13 seconds and 3 TO’s, I would 100% believe that Josh, Prime Stef, Beasley, Brown and Gabe were still alive to tie game. Upgrade everyone to Mahomes, Kelce, Hill and yeah, for sure.

@GunnerBill I know it seems silly, but Penix does not get past Seattle.