Kevbeau

Hilary playing the long game?

I said to my wife tonight. “Why does it seem like the dishwasher is always running?”

[opens thread] you all realize that this thread has descended into the **** show Tibs was hoping for? [sees self out]

Rules for you, not me.

So my team builds analytic models. Primarily what we’re doing now is to determine short/long term impact to our business via shifts in buying behavior, lack of access, economic tightening, etc... we are making A LOT of assumptions based in the most educated way possible, using similar (maybe) instances in the past. We are providing best/worst/most probable scenarios to our Company leadership because the error range is enormous. The virus models are no different. I think B-Man had a quote in one of his posts “All models are wrong, some are useful” (George Box I believe) which is so true.

My experience with corn is that it also needs a ton of water. Obviously depending on rainfall can/won’t be an issue.

Agree with you in principle, but my personal feeling is the 90% is way too high.

Hope everything works out. My best to your family.

Great...now people will be stealing Heart Guard from their dogs. I have to give our alpacas ivermectin shots every month to stave off all the garbage white tail carry. Horses also get it in paste form every couple months. Because of the livestock industry’s overuse of anti-parasite/antibiotics this is the only **** left that actually works. Once the bots and worms develop immunity to ivermectin, we’re fubared.

Sample size of one but was picking up a .22LR plinker two weeks ago (had special ordered it in Feb.) Store was packed and my cursory glance at how folks were handling the merchandise and staring at ammo specs, lead me to believe that there were many first time buyers.

Bosch for me.

True....I’ve read about a couple instances where it has unfortunately decimated families. The fact that there isn’t more (thankfully) makes one wonder about disposition to the virus, genetic or otherwise.

South GA had an example around a family funeral. Tragic.

Deep pull there ?

At a minimum this is going to lead to some sort of violent (over)reaction that will flare up the racism narrative (rightfully or wrongfully)

I remember when two scoops was a Raisin Bran thing.

Raw numbers can tell a story but when presenting different data series together, some sort of scaling function is required for comparison purposes. The chart you are citing has none so the slope of the lines mean nothing.

He’s trying to tell you the data that you are citing is presented in a way that nobody with a lick of analytics background would take seriously. I understand what you’re arguing but what you’re presenting doesn’t support it.

Who left the gate open?

What?....the same people who got caught using footage from a Kentucky gun range masquerading as Syria wouldn’t dare use Italy footage depicted as NY.

He also quoted a governor saying the “average” time on a ventilator is 5 to 11 days. Do people know what the **** an average is?

Not as informed as I should be...is that basically corporate debt?

Same with me. I figured the employment numbers would have been enough to keep the downward trend going

Next town over from me. Really hitting a nerve locally.

I believe what GG is referring to is simply what is the variance from the norm. Not saying anything is overstated, but this type of view would provide at least a directional idea of incremental deaths due to Covid-19 versus an expectation. It would also reduce the bias that we’re seeing in the data caused by different recording/classification criteria by country/state.