Texans’ seeding scenarios:
No. 2 AFC seed: A first-round bye is still in play for the Texans but it's a pretty huge long shot. Houston has to win out to get to 11-5. The Chiefs have to go to 1-1 to get to 11-5. The Patriots have to go 0-2 to get to 11-5. And the Bills have to go 1-1 to get to 11-5 as well. That would create a three-way tie for the second spot (Buffalo would be the fifth seed) and the Texans would have a head-to-head advantage over the Chiefs and Pats to get the second seed.
No. 3 AFC seed: If the Pats win out, the Chiefs go 1-1 and the Texans win out, Houston would get the No. 3 seed by virtue of its head-to-head win over Kansas City.
No. 4 AFC seed: If the Pats and Chiefs win out, the Texans can't get any higher than the No. 4 seed. They haven't won the AFC South yet, but they can do so this weekend by 1) beating the Buccaneers on Saturday, 2) tying the Bucs and having the Saints/Titans tie or 3) having the Titans lose to the Saints on Sunday. Any three of those scenarios would clinch no less than the fourth seed for Houston. If the Texans lose and the Titans win, Week 17's game would be a divisional title game.
No. 6 AFC seed: The Texans can actually sneak in as a wild card, if the Steelers lose one of their two remaining games. In this scenario, the Texans could beat the Buccaneers Saturday and lose to the Titans in Week 17. They would be 10-6 and the Steelers would finish 9-7 at best, which would put the Texans in as a wild card, while the Titans jumped up to the No. 4 seed.