Anyone who's saying they want the Chiefs in Buffalo needs to be careful what they wish for. It's way too easy to see it playing out: Bills fans are overconfident because they "finally get Mahomes in Buffalo," and the Chiefs come in with an underdog chip and beat us. No thanks.
I can't stand Josh Allen.
He can't throw deep
He turns the ball over constantly
His incredibly strong arm is more of a weakness than a strength
He gets overexcited/plays out of control
I need a trustworthy gamer QB who plays under control and can put the proper touch on throws.
And I told everyone who was laboring on about tiebreakers ad nauseam that it's extremely unlikely that tiebreakers will end up coming into play. 10 wins has gotten every team in since the playoffs expanded, and the last time there was a four-way tie for the final seed was 2017 (and that was with 9 wins).
Remember this next year when everyone starts panicking about tiebreakers and even saying it's okay to lose NFC games. Overall record wins out 99.9% of the time.
Waddle and Mostert not expected to play.
So Bills are facing Dolphins without Phillips, Chubb, Howard, Waddle, Mostert, possibly Holland, and with a hobbled Hill.
This is approaching all-time fail category if they're not able to pull it off
I think you might have misread it. I'm saying the 95% NYT is wrong because of the reasons you stated. The actual chance based on the betting lines of the games is 81.1% (there is an 18.9% chance of a Steelers/Jaguars/Dolphins parlay hitting, which is the only way the Bills miss).
Bills' NYT 95% chance of playoffs is very inaccurate. The actual probability that the Bills will miss the playoffs, based on the odds of a disqualifying three-leg parlay, are 18.9%. So, there is a true 81.1% chance the Bills will make it one way or another.