Waddle and Mostert not expected to play.
So Bills are facing Dolphins without Phillips, Chubb, Howard, Waddle, Mostert, possibly Holland, and with a hobbled Hill.
This is approaching all-time fail category if they're not able to pull it off
I think you might have misread it. I'm saying the 95% NYT is wrong because of the reasons you stated. The actual chance based on the betting lines of the games is 81.1% (there is an 18.9% chance of a Steelers/Jaguars/Dolphins parlay hitting, which is the only way the Bills miss).
Bills' NYT 95% chance of playoffs is very inaccurate. The actual probability that the Bills will miss the playoffs, based on the odds of a disqualifying three-leg parlay, are 18.9%. So, there is a true 81.1% chance the Bills will make it one way or another.