Mikie2times

I’m surprised the “art of the deal” doesn’t involve needing to know what leverage you have.

If you’re asking that question. I can’t help you.

No. Go to school. If you can't afford it, take out a loan (like everybody else does). Find a job that won't be replaced by machines and that requires enough skill that somebody in Vietnam can't do it. Let capitalism run it's course. Instead what we are hearing is, raise the price of all consumer goods to subsidize job creation for the lower/middle class. That sounds like an awful policy some idiot on the left would create and mind you, I even like some Bernie policies. How did we arrive at a place where the right is pro union and wants to use taxpayer money for lower class job creation? It's not that MAGA thinks WOKE policy should be canceled, instead they just want it to benefit them. MAGA is the new welfare class.

With the way I set this file up it would be very easy to evaluate that (of course, not perfectly, but within reason) Below is the number of draft picks each team has had in rounds 3-7. I summed the total. Then evaluated how many starts were made by these draft picks. Than landed on average starts made per pick. Buffalo is #1, which I feel is directionally accurate. Again, not perfect, but we sort of know we are good in these rounds and this gives some context.

Yup, I see that issue on that now. I grouped OLB and LB for linebacker. It also has "ILB" Good catch, updated below.

No, I just used the straight draft info from Pro Football Reference

Horrifying.... Also interesting is most of the top playoff teams from last year are spending 20%+ on the DL.

Here you go. Pretty balanced for the most part.

I was thinking the other day on how likely it is that we will be drafting a RB. Then thought further on how it seems like we invest a lot at RB in the draft, but do we? It's hard to really say something is a lot without context. So I took every draft from 2017 to current, assigned each draft pick a point value based on the attached draft value chart. https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart Then I measured where each team is spending the highest budget by position. I looked at it as a % of the total a team has. In the graph below it is stacked by the total draft capitol each team has had since 2017. Buffalo came in 4th to the lowest in that area because we always pick so late. But as far as the %'s go, that is relative to each teams individual draft capitol. So if Buffalo has 37293 and has spent 13.4% at WR, the total capitol they spent at WR is 5,014 (13.4% of the 37293) Note: A good Samaritan called out that the LB category was likely underrepresented and he was correct, it didn't include position "ILB" which excluded Edmunds so he is now added in. That update is down thread a bit.

I wonder how long he looked in a mirror perfecting his mugshot power look. What a tool.

He’s backed himself into a corner a bit with his rhetoric, not that doing the opposite of what he says matters. It will come this week. I don’t think he can survive the pressure if it doesn’t. His own party will turn on him and is already starting to do so.

Like you never brought a few loaded guns to the airport....pshhh

Estimated market losses divided by a 75k salary

If we just stopped at this moment and invested the losses at 75k per year salary we could create 66 million jobs.

Doesn’t appear like a market bottom is in site. Futures are 3% down. Worst route since Covid. I don’t imagine FOX will have tickers running this week. Trump will celebrate Zimbabwe negotiations. In a matter of 3 trading days we are approaching a Bear market from all time highs just weeks ago. Incredible. I’m 42 and the only comparable market events I saw to this was housing crash and Covid.

And why would any prudent business owner take the steps to help accommodate a more long term outlook on these policies? One that Trump sort of needs to even check the box of returning jobs? No trust. How can you reroute your supply chains in a permanent way, build more in the US, when the reality is this could very well be an ill conceived negotiation ploy. At some point business and foreign countries have to trust our government will keep the rules the same for more than five seconds to have any material impact, good or bad.

A lot of the Trump voters that actually sealed the deal aren’t even MAGA. They have bulky 401k’s. They were ostracized by the Democrats in the election process (as was I). They took a lesser of two evils approach on the vote. But no where did they expect what has been happening to the level that it has and they certainly won’t put up with. Trump can’t hold the support of the US with his MAGA core. He needs to the moderates and swing voters and he’s losing them in mass with these policies. It will be a democratic route next cycle.

But, but, but…we have been taken advantage of too long! Not that any value exists for the US in international peace or a thriving global economy. It now only matters what our trade deficit is with third world countries.

That’s just it. No end game, no definition of success. End game as far as I can tell is bring back more manufacturing jobs. Ok, at what cost? If every consumer in the US is paying more for basic goods and services, did it end up being worth the additional manufacturing jobs? A study was done on his first term round of terrors and it found washing machines and drying machines elevated in cost and they never went back down. That while jobs were created the average cost to Americans equaled 800k per created job. That isn’t winning.

Big news, we will still be at a trade deficit forever with these underdeveloped countries so I guess we are still losing right?

People are mad because they’re worried “it will work” and they don’t want all the glory going to Trump. If that wasn’t true they would have zero reasons to complain. These actions will cost MAGA the house, senate, and presidency. What you should be asking yourself is despite knowing that, why do liberals still care so much about what’s happening? Why wouldn’t they just let it crash and burn? Maybe it’s because we want to make sure something is even left.

Tariffs hit Wednesday at 4pm. China doesn’t even retaliate until Friday early. Market closes Friday at 4pm. Poll comes out Saturday morning. Not thinking it’s taking in all that much from this week, but who am I to judge.

Are you as passionate that it will work as the people who think it won’t? It sounds like you’re more in the “we have to try” camp.

Current justification If most people disagree with it, I like it more We have to try something Biden was awful It could work, you don't know You should have known better (Tariffs, being in the market, etc) I'm curious, do any of you actually think this is a good idea and will work? If it does, what does "working" look like to you? Is it elevated prices with increases manufacturing? Prices coming down eventually? Trade deficits being more equalized <= what does that mean for the average consumer? Does this have any end game? Do we just live in this state or do we revaluate, if so, how soon? I'm a bit tired hearing more jobs. The goal can't be as wide as a house or it will never be hit. Does this plan have any "plan" from your perspective or from the White Houses that is a little more specific on what success looks like?

Nike is going to come to the US, it's employees with join the teamsters. They will be paying 20x the labor costs. Costs will be passed to consumers. Sum of all costs past to consumers will be greater than income of jobs created.