Mikie2times

Navy- It's interesting you mentioned sleep issues being connected to your problem. I don't have apnea (at least I don't believe I do). I do have a very difficult time going to sleep, and don't sleep enough as a result (probably 5-6 hours a night). I will look into a sleep study. Plenzmd- I'm thinking just knowing what it is will help a lot. You know what can be running threw your mind as this is happening. You can almost convince yourself you’re going to drop dead on the spot. Just knowing that my vitals aren't in jeopardy should reduce the frequency and strength. Chef- The freeway can also be a trigger for me. I figured I wasn't alone; I just wasn't sure how many Men experience this. The doctor said it's genetics (My Mom also has these), stress and anxiety. He said the explanation for them right now is that your mind will become overwhelmed with these issues even if you’re not consciously aware of it. For some people the mind will incorrectly send off defense signals. The result is the Panic Attack, which mirrors the feelings of a life threaning situation to the person going threw it. I never thought of Panic Attacks because I've never felt like this when I was younger. As the Doctor pointed out, I didn't have adult responsibilities until around the time these started. He made a lot of sense. I'm probably going to look into ways at reducing stress. Navy mentioned Yoga; anything along those lines can't be a bad idea. I used to work out a lot, getting back into that couldn’t hurt either. If my own self help methods aren't sufficient I could maybe look into generic drug alternatives until I get insurance. Thanks again for all the responses.

For about 4 years I thought I had something physically wrong with my body. It didn't make much sense, I'm 24, very low body fat, good diet etc. I could be doing nothing then all off a sudden I couldn't catch my breath. I would get dizzy, cold sweats, tingling fingers, and my heart sounded like it was going to explode. These things just seemed to come out of nowhere. I haven't had health insurance so it took until today for me to say I've had enough and get checked out. Turns out I'm having Panic Attacks. It's a relief to hear I have nothing physically wrong, but I still don't understand this enough to control it. In my case they almost always happen when I'm alone, or with my girlfriend. I can't recall a time I got one in a public setting. Without insurance I need to look at ways to improve this condition without medication. I've done some reading online but was wondering if anybody else has experienced this and if they could recommend books, behaviors, or anything else to either reduce the frequency or strength of these attacks. Thank you so much for anything you can share.

Yup. A hard football travels a much shorter distance then a soft football. When I used to do some place kicking we would substitute an old softened ball on kickoffs. That adjustment increased my kickoff average 7 yards from the previous season.

Couldn't agree more.

I still support his decision. Let me also say Jauron knew all this stuff before the decision was made. As fan I guessed we converted around 40% the last two days in these 3rd/4th and short situations. Jauron's a freaking Ivy Leaguer. If a random fan could guess the probabilities that closely I'm sure he had it within a 2-3% of the actual odds in his head.

Here’s another angle to this thread which would be the correct way to look at the probabilities. Either call would require two variables for the Bills to win. If you kick the FG, you take the probability of making the kick, and multiply it by the probability of Buffalo stopping a TEN FG. If we go for it you figure out the probability of converting on fourth down, then the odds of Lindell later making a shorter FG. Here’s a breakdown of what that could look like with different odds. Go for the FG with the Bills having a 95% chance at stopping Tennessee the next drive Kick% Stop% Win% 10%----- 95%------ .0095 20%------95%------.190 30%------95%-------.285 40%------95%------- .380 50%------95%-------.475 60%------95%-------.570 Or Go for the FG with the Bills having a 90% chance at stopping Tennessee the next drive Kick% Stop% Win% 10%----- 90%------ .009 20%------90%------.180 30%------90%-------.270 40%------90%------- .360 50%------90%-------.450 60%------90%-------.540 Or Go for the First down, and make a shorter FG, diffrent odds of that FG are listed. Go for the First down FIRST%---FG%-----WIN% 40.4%------70%------.283 40.4%------75%------.303 40.4%------80%------.323 40.4%------85%------.343 40.4%------90%------.364

Haha, I hit submit when I was changing a thought around. Please go back and read it again. Should make a little more sense. Edit- Damn I'm stupid right now, all my math was f'ed up in the correction post! It's fixed now.

The Bills have converted 19 of 47 3rd downs of 4, 5, and 6 yards this season, a 40.4% clip. So at the minimum Lindell needed to have a 40% shot at making that kick. It's more likely around 50% when you consider Tennessee still had ample time to counter the FG, with the wind, and a guy that's already made a 60 yard game winner. For his career RL is 12-19 from 50 yards out a 63.2% clip. The wind easily took 5 yards off the ball, so that's why I have his 50 yard numbers instead of his 40 yard numbers. If the wind took more then 9 yards off the ball (more then possible) it would equal Lindell’s career long. You can see how close the decision actually was for Jauron. I thought he made the right one at the time, and still do after looking at the probabilities. Edit: I did some more exact probability work below. It appears the bottom line on Lindell’s kick had to be about 35% or better for it to make it a 50/50 proposition.

How can people still be pissed about this? This isn't Tin Cup. We had a 40% chance or more at converting the 4th down. NE had no choice but to kick that FG. The ONLY alternative for NE was a Hail Mary. AV gave it his best shot and made an incredible kick. If NE had as strong an out as we did no way does AV tell BB he can make that kick, and if he did BB wouldn’t have let him anyway.

I know this loss reeked of the same old Bills, I just haven't seen those same old Bills all year. For 14 games we fought our ass off. We had more then a chance at winning 12 of them. It was a dramatic improvement from the amount of games this could be said for in 2005. This happened while being in the bottom 25 in dozens of statistics. Those same old Bills were veteran teams that dominated statistically. They led the league in rushing defense, turnovers, and all the things you would expect to see from a winning team. This team isn't doing any of that, and they started more rookies then any team in football. They have a young improving QB, compared to an old deteriorating one. These Bills have nowhere to go but up while those Bills had nowhere to go but down. I also really like Dick Jauron despite his mishaps in the Tennessee game.

It had to be the most poorly officiated sequence of calls in NFL history. It will never happen again, unless it happens to us.

I agree with your assessments, but why so high on McCargo? It's great to see optimism from posters right now, but I don't see how we have anything that say's he's going to be good or bad. He just didn't get enough reps. Also you took my comments during the Titans game the wrong way. I didn’t think we would finish because we lost the opportunity to do so in the 3rd with great field position and the wind. That's why I was predicting doom in the 4th quarter. I love the long term outlook, and believe this will be a playoff team in 2007. The only reason I'm saying this is because you’re new, and we need optimism from people to combat some of this crazy talk. So stick around for awhile.

Bingo. Jauron would have been the bad guy for not trusting our guys to convert. The debate over that call is just petty hindsight fan BS. If you have a gripe it should be over the indecision of the call, not the call itself. As Exiled pointed out the indecision is what guaranteed either decision would fail.

I'll tell you what I'm sick of hearing, people that don't make any connection to running backs and run blocking. Perhaps Edge could explain the correlation to you. These black and white arguments with players have no place in a team sport. As for your examples JP has no relevance to this debate. Pass blocking and run blocking are two completely different animals. Willis has been significantly better then A-Train if you compare the numbers with run defense SOS. I can link the posts in which I did this if you like, or you can just look at the raw numbers without context. Corey Dillion was one of, if not the best RB's in football for Cincinnati several years in a row. Throwing that aside what perspectives can you add concerning the Bengals run blocking then? The fact that they were a bad team tells us nothing about how they run block. Your final candidate is one of the top 5 RB's off all time. Has anybody even said Willis is top 5 in the NFL right now?

If they gave us that call it would have been just as unfair to the Titans as it was to the Bills in just Give it to Em. You just can't expect PI to get called in that situation, as it shouldn't be.

I agree. I've argued against the FG, but whatever you choose you need to be decisive in what you’re doing. The mismanagement on the final drive is what bothred me the most about this game.

Jauron strikes me as a guy who doesn't have basic guidelines he follows. I feel that he plays each decision differently depending on the variables. We've watched him go from conservative as it get's, to aggressive as all hell. If you ask Jauron about his wind decision I think he could make some valid points as to why he did what he did. We were trailing in the game, with what I thought was some mo after the hail mary. We do anything on those two possessions inside the 50 and we win running away. We got the shots Jauron was looking for in 3rd quarter, we just couldn't do anything with those possessions. I'm not saying I disagree with the fundamentals of your view point. But I like the fact that Jauron adapts to things even if some of those decisions prove incorrect.

Believe me I understand your frustration. Fairchild/Jauron clearly should have had a game plan on that final drive. It probably cost us the game. That said Jauron and Co. did enough before Christmas Eve for me to think he's our guy. The Tennessee game wasn't enough to change that. As far as the loser mentality thing, if the players feel they overachieved your right, that would be a loser’s mentality. We are just fans though, some of whom are being overlay critical of Jauron with the benefit of hindsight, and a lack of perspective grading his performance. That is who my thread was directed at.

When Dick Jauron signed on to be Bills coach do you think he was completely satisfied with who we had? Was anybody on the wall satisfied with who we had going into the season? Want a laundry list? The Bills are 25th or worse in points scored, yards, yards per attempt, first downs per game, time of possession, 3rd Down%, YPA rushing offense and defense, yards rushing defense, sacks per pass attempt, sacks, and passing yards. Somehow despite all this we just kept on winning. Amazing considering we’ are merely in the middle of the pack in net turnover margin, and started more rookies then any team in football. Something is causing this abnormality and it isn't just our special teams. Truth be told the only reason we made it this far was threw excellent game planning, adjustments, and preparation from Dick Jauron and his staff. He made some mistakes, so did all 32 coaches in football. Mistakes are made by professionals in all walks of life, everyday. They're made by people in less stressful environments, with a hell of a lot more time to work with. We’are all very disappointed, but let us not forget why we had a legitimate chance to make the playoffs in week 16, and what that should mean for us moving forward.

Thank you John Madden

Infants have more perspective then half the people here. A day ago just about everybody on this board would defend Jauron and Fairchild until their last dieing breath. In all of one day they're now incompetent horrible coaches. People have to defend our guys from the bipolar lunacy that happens here on a weekly basis.

yup

Can anybody who disagrees with going for it bring a single piece of evidence for your reasoning? This isn't hard decision to analyze. What are the odds Rian Lindell makes that kick? What are the odds the Bills convert 4th and 5? I really don't feel like researching this, but I assure you it's not even close.

Lot's of people are pissed off about the call to go on 4th down. That was clearly the correct call if you look at the percentages of making the FG verse picking up the first down. But as you pointed out it seemed they didn't have the 4 downs in mind from the get go. If so they would have run on 3rd down setting up a potential run/pass on 4th. Good post.

I was screaming to go for it. That kick by Bironas should tell you all you need to know. He needed to put everything into it, and he's shown the power that he can have when he does so. His 42 yard kick just got slapped out of the air barely clearing the crossbars. The wind had to take at least 10 to 15 yards of the ball flight making Lindell's kick several yards past his career long. The odds of picking up 5 yards on 4th down were at least 40%. It wasn't even really a decision.