Mikie2times

Yup. Deep in two bills drive archives is my summary of his first preseason game. Caught my eye with his leverage and motor. Never would I have thought he would have one of the most distinguished careers in Bills history. In saying that, in all areas. Great leader of men. Never gave up. Really an inspiration which you don’t tend to say a lot about modern athletes.

I agree with this. I'm 36, became a fan in 1990, joined this forum when it had a different name..... Those 90's Bills don't feel old to me. But 1990 was 28 years ago, so if you did the same exercise in 1990 you would be reflecting back to 1962.....1962 certainly sounds old to somebody my age. It's all relative.

An article was posted on what Beane looked for in a QB awhile back. I found it intriguing because it was well prior to the hype involved in this years draft but it ended up being spot on to the player selected. Beane talked a lot about physical traits like size, arm strength. It sounded very Cam like in what he wanted. I don't know where Allen's ceiling is. I didn't like the pick, but even with Allen's struggles I'm much happier we have him vs Rosen. Out of the two we didn't get, they probably look the best, but not exactly lights out. Allen has the most raw talent and we likely don't end this year being able to declare any of them franchise guys. So........

Anybody in a leadership role has had immensely talented people that don’t fall in line and eventually bring down the overall level of success. So yes, culture is critical. I would also say anybody worth a salt in a leadership role manages to save the majority of talent and or get a buy in, because ultimately not enough talent exists to just make everybody buy into what your selling. I’m indifferent to this quote. This is our regime and will be for some time and if you think this is bad try taking this roster and what few pieces we have added and convert it to a 3-4 or a new system. AKA the last 20 years of Bills football that cycles every 3 seasons.

You see it all around the league. The modern day blue print for building a Super Bowl contender. It starts at QB but does so in different ways. You either have substantial resources invested in the QB position which likely means you have one of the elite or you position yourself to get the "future" on a rookie contract. First approach forces you to draft well at every position because you likely aren't bringing in a lot of top dollar FA's. Second approach (what we are doing, what most teams are doing), go after your guy, once you got him, maximize FA buying power and create a 3-4 year window to make a run. You see several teams at different progressions in this process. Rams are an example of a team that is executing this perfectly. Bears are an example of a team that is trying to execute this but still question marks at QB. This approach hinges on the guy who you thought was the guy at QB in fact being the guy. I think we shape up in between the Rams and the Bears as far as our outlook but that is short sighted. We need more information. At the least Allen, in my opinion is viable to now max the cap in FA talent. Then you just hope you make the right moves. That is the process and the Bills are clearly executing it this year. Goal this year is to keep seeing progression from Allen and our more coveted draftees . In the interim I expect we will be all over the map with results.

3K on Buffalo with the points. I’m doing the same thing but for better reasons ?

You should be extremely worried. Teams that start off 0-2 against the spread cover at about a 60% clip the last 5 years in the 3rd game. This is a huge spread. Backdoor covers in play. Minnesota just got off a very hard fought divisional game. Wouldn't shock me a bit if the start slow. For as bad as the Chargers game went they would have covered against these odds. Public all over Minnesota. I made great money Week 1 and 2 off the Bills. It's either play on or play off them this week. At absolute best this is a 50/50 outcome. Most are, but anybody serious about handicapping knows when to pick spots on larger wagers. I just don't see any variables to justify this being one of them. It's like buying Bitcoin when it was at 20,000. Unlike weeks 1 and 2, everybody has caught on at this point. You don't want to be late with sports betting or investments.

Nice contrarian view point.

I was very negative towards the pick at first but completely turned around. It might be preseason but you can get a decent feel for some things. Allen throws a hell of a jump ball when the defender has his back turned. We haven't had that in a long time. Somebody with the guts and talent to put the ball where your guy catches or it's incomplete. These are chunk gains so seeing this is fantastic. Allen's delivery and arm strength allow him to be slower as far as reading defenses. He trusts his arm and he can see things and deliver the ball where others would surely be picked. It will bite him at times as he develops but he will always be able to react to what he sees faster than most QB's based on his release and arm strength. Allen is pretty nimble and likely not fun to tackle. You will have to spy this kid. That is crazy to think. You have to spy a guy who probably has the strongest arm in the NFL and when you tackle him he falls forward. Improvisation skills are certainly well developed. He can escape the pocket and throw it to virtually any place on the field. Also very solid throwing from odd angles. Guy is dynamic in the red zone. Run/Pass/Broken play. Another thing that might bite him a bit early just as far as risk taking in the RZ but he has generated some incredible TD's that very few QB's could execute. Some things I want to see improve is staying in the pocket. He bailed a lot in Wyoming even when he had a pocket. He's doing some similar things so far in the preseason. We have seen some glimpses of him standing tall and stepping up. He's a natural with playaction and steps up in that situation. Just not as often from the shotgun. Curious if they could redraft based on the first two preseason games if Allen goes #1. He's been impressive.

They can try and play protect the football, football. That said they are competing against one of the best of all time in that area. Crazy as that sounds. Taylor was historic in how rare he turned the ball over. I have a hard time seeing what the identity of the offense is this year. I would rather take risks and see young players develop, trading the short term for long term on offense than play turnover/risk free styles similar to what we have seen before. If the goal was protect the football they should have kept Taylor as the bridge. Our goal should be score points. Get a playoff caliber NFL offense before 2020. Partner that with this defense and it's a Super Bowl contender.

I don’t disagree but just as much as our defense and it’s turnovers were a big reason we won last year our offense not turning the ball over was as well. You could see a much improved defense and an offense that is still bad and more turnover prone. That is likely a 6-10 type team which is how I see it. This year will involve a lot of exploration on offense. We will be more aggressive. It very well could be a better offense but it will generate way more turnovers than TT and the 3 and outs.

It amazes me how redundant posts like this have become opposed to just not responding. Moths to a flame.

Peerless

I based my conclusions on Tyrod be prolific in his ability to not turn the ball over. He has the 2nd lowest INT% of any QB to throw more than 100 passes since 2000. Against that standard I expect we will see more turnovers. Then I looked at AJ's sack % in the time he did play in 2015 and he had a 9.2% sack %. That would put him in the bottom two or three in the league last year (Ironically right by Taylor). In Taylor that sack% gets more offset by runs and the typical improve yards Taylor would give us extending plays. AJ won't do that as effectively. He's more of what we wanted which is a downfield passer. He just has no options to throw the ball downfield. So while I don't pine for Tyrod, I think with the current roster he would have given us a better chance at winning next year. As is, it looks rebuild to me. Neither of our quarterbacks are going to be able to turn these lemons into lemonade.

This place is so sensitive lately. Not stuck in the past guys. It's an internet message board, isn't it the point to debate our beloved teams decision making process on the forum? I get Taylor discussions have been going on for months. All this thread is about is if you have no talent on offense who gives you the best chance at winning now? I think that's an interesting topic. I guess it angers people to even discuss it? Yeesh. Thank you for those that added something to the conversation.

After seeing how little we added to the offense, unless we add some major production prior to start of the year we are poised to have one of the most talent depleted offenses in football. If you asked me my preference between AJ and Tyrod I would say AJ, but that's only if he has play makers around him. Tyrod can't take advantage of play makers as much AJ can, but the reality is, we have nobody outside of McCoy. AJ holds the ball like Taylor, high sack rates, little mobility, much more turnover prone. What Tyrod can do is generate yards on his own. He helped mask the offensive line issues. He didn't commit turnovers. I'm certainly not arguing at all that an upgrade was required over Taylor. I just just think with this current roster Taylor would have given us a better chance to win games.

Perfect fit for this system. Both sides of the ball are void of talent and have huge need. I see this kid getting substantial playing time. I want offense too, but if they don't like who they see on offense I would rather land a contributor on defense.

I have way too many high level business meetings lately. You could almost call them 2nd high level. Just short of 3rd which is almost as high as it can get.

I think I still have the data. I did that on my old work laptop and I'm pretty sure I copied it all over. If not it was quick to do, I can maybe do it over. Criteria was simple, 64 starts or more or an overwhelming probability of 64 starts defined if it was a bust or not. I used 64 starts because teams try and give these players chances, but it rarely extends past 3 years, generally a max of 4 and I felt defining bad was easier than defining good. While still subjective, I would say most people would feel a high round QB not making 64 starts or more as a fail. If they make more than 64 it doesn't necessarily mean it's a huge win either, but few even make it that far along, so some success is likely at that point. Some gaps in data is how I tiered it. You could adjust the thresholds a decent amount and get similar data. I get what your saying though.

I hope it’s not a site violation to copy and paste previous posts. I did the study below about two weeks after the season ended. I hated the Allen pick. He has so many traditional measures against him. I could go on for days on why I don’t like him, but I’m a Bills fan and I don’t want to feel this way when I know I can create a different narrative for myself. Why not choose positive vs negative when certain outcome doesn’t exist? That’s where I’m at. This will become a series of data based narratives that support Allen as a player. They are meant for my own therapy and I think others out there will appreciate it. The one below matters to me because it was at a point when I didn’t have a horse in the race. Busts are defined by any QB that did not start at least 64 games (4 seasons) in his career in the NFL. Active players were excluded from the sample on Busts unless near certain 64 game expectation exists (Derek Carr/62 games, etc). Active player are included toward winning%. Draft pick sample is from 2000 on QB's who had 17.5% or more total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games in NFL: 227 and 204 (52.7%) Bust Rate: 8 of 10 (80%) Qualifiers: Lamar Jackson QB's who had between .5% and 17.5% total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games 1,362 and 1,289 (51.4%) Bust Rate: 12 of 26 (46.2%) Qualifiers: Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold QB's drafted who had .5% or less total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games 336 and 396 (45.9%) Bust Rate: 10 of 13 (76.9%) Qualifiers: Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph Analysis: This is one of the most dominant stat profiles in the study on who to avoid. It's a small sample, but you could see some logic behind the data. If you are running as a means to generate offense in college at a high rate you are also using that escape ability as a means to generate offense in the air through unconventional means. You will be less likely to be successful running the ball at the NFL level. Conversely at very low levels most QB's have negative career rushing yards in college. This could lend itself to poor pocket awareness. All and all the bust rate on outliers as it relates to yards gained on the ground is a staggering 18 of 23 (78%) with Rosen, Rudolph, and Jackson all being in outlier profiles. While the bust rate on non outlier profiles is just 46.2%, with prospects that include Mayfield, Allen, and Darnold. QB's with 9,300 or more career passing yards in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games in NFL: 1,025 and 877 (53.9%) Bust Rate: 10 of 20 (50%) Qualifiers: Mason Rudolph, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen QB's between 5,500 and 9,300 passing yards in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record starting Games: 490 and 708 (40.9%) Bust Rate: 19 of 24 (79.2%) Qualifiers: Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson QB's with less than 5,500 career passing yards in college drafted in the 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games: 410 and 304 (57.4%) Bust Rate: 1 of 5 (20%) Qualifiers: Josh Allen Analysis: Passing yards/production in the air does matter, especially when you partner it with NFL scouts giving you a high grade. Players that are above 9,300 yards in large part have started since day one in college, have been either consistently productive or excessively productive over 2-3 years. More likely to have stayed a full 4 years improving maturation. Rudolph, Mayfield, and Rosen fit this profile, with Mayfield having the highest career passing yardage numbers out of any 1st or 2nd round pick drafted since 2000. Once you go under 5,500 yards you see a clear trend emerge. Very high draft picks. These tend to be the freak type QB's that either explode on the scene or have measurable's off the charts. It's not common to see this occur but we likely will see Allen fall into this profile. Middle of the rode QB's on the production front have been awful since the 2000 draft, 40.9% winning % and nearly an 80% bust rate on 24 players. Think EJ/JP, they fit in this group. They have the measurable's but generally speaking they weren't able to translate that into elite production on the field (Jackson would be an exception to that statement). Scouts should be very cautious of this combination. So what does the passing data look like when you get out of elite draft pick status? Pretty much the same. ..... QB's with 9,300 or more career passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in the 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games 500 and 416 (54.6%) Bust Rate: 7 of 12 (58.3%) QB's between 5,500 and 9,300 passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in the 1st or 2nd round Record starting Games: 271 and 380 (41.6%) Bust Rate: 16 of 17 (94.1%) QB's with less than 5,500 career passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games: 107 and 60 (64.1%) Bust Rate: 1 of 2 (50%) Analysis: Middle level bust rate is nearly 100%, that number is spared thanks to Jay Cutler. Final Analysis: The only two QB's to avoid all of the high bust rate levels are Mayfield and Allen. Darnold, Rosen, Rudolph all fit in at least one of the larger bust rate groupings. Jackson fits in 2 of them. I know it's far from a sure fire selection guide. I do find some of the bust rate data to be a tad overwhelming to not give it any merit. Last year Mitch fell into the same grouping as Allen, avoiding any major bust categories but in the very low production buckets. Then Watson and Mahomes fell into the same categories as Mayfield with both those QB's also avoiding any of the major bust categories.

My boss lets me make my own decisions. I also understand it’s not in my best interest to go against my boss. So say he was somewhat neutral as to Rosen or Allen. If Terry was all about Allen, well, there you go.

No, I do not “trust the process” on this pick. Beane could be a masterful GM in every area, that doesn’t mean crap regarding his ability to land a good QB. If you read his excerpt on what he likes in a QB from last year...big, strong arm, durable. Basically Cam Newton 2.0. Then you look at the comments by ESPN, Terry fell in love with Allen. So Allen matched what Beane likes based on what? Cam? A freak show athlete on all levels. Based on when every NFL GM likes? Yet with this kid they didn’t like it enough to take him.... You didn’t win this time Beane. You outsmarted yourself aided with ownership which made it all easy. Maybe even forgiveable when he busts. Did you watch his feet on any of the film? Who is the QB guru that will keep him from bailing in the pocket when he has a pocket? I hope we lock this thread and look back at it in three years and myself and many others have to eat it. I don’t see it happening. If Rosen pans out and Allen doesn’t it should cost Beane his job.

Rosen!!!!

Mark it down. With the first overall pick in the NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns select Josh Allen, QB out of Wyoming. Not getting Big Ben really bothered me when that occurred as well. I was certain he was our guy, likely was. If so, why don’t you move up? As a result Buffalo’s women were more safe. But long playoff drought.

Robert Woods is “Fu$&&$& Crazy”