Mikie2times

Perhaps the most winner, winner play of his career thus far. He has these singular plays that describe who he is in a much broader sense. What separates him from everybody. If you asked fans to describe the style of play of those players, I don't think it would be winner. It would be methodical or efficient and Josh is neither. Remembered as a winner? Sure. I would certainly agree with that.

I'm not thrilled at the hypocrisy of the NFL in any of this. That said, Gruden was sacrificed because he said what he did against two of the most influential people in the NFL. Take a shot using the same words Gruden did against your CEO on a business email server. Is that something any of us would expect to survive?

Josh seems to be a very polarizing figure in the media and while he is adored by the fan base, at times you see the that polarizing effect even leak out into Bills fans when he plays poorly. I’m trying to understand that more. While I might drop a stat or two, in my opinion stats almost muddy the waters even more. As an example, last year, Josh was had several games where he carved teams up and put up QBR's as good as it gets. But if you said describe Josh in one word, I think the last word I would choose would be “efficient”. If you asked me to describe most the legends in the QB annuals in the last 20-30 years, I would say efficient would be the most common word used. Brady, Montana, Young, Brees, Manning, “efficient” just dominates your mind when you hear those names. They had a robot-like consistency and that is what we have come to visualize when looking at the greats. More recently you see guys like Mahomes who I would also not call “efficient” as far as the first word to describe them. Perhaps, “talented or unique”. Mahomes is pretty consistent in his play, but it’s what he does that so few can that makes you scratch your head. He is also a Super Bowl winner and former MVP, so if he appears inconsistent once in awhile benefit of the doubt is given. If I described Josh in one word it would be “winner”. He is probably the most physically talented QB in the NFL but I feel his drive to just win games is even greater than his talent. At times he can go stretches looking awful and that's what confuses people . Then he does something nobody can, not even Mahomes. Then he leaps a defender gaining 20 yards on the ground. A few hours later you look at the score and we put up 35 points and think, Allen probably could have played even better. With Allen, he will always produce points, because even when he looks inconsistent, he can still become Houdini by air or land at any moment and he is the 2nd most impactful running QB in the NFL. To me Josh fits the term “winner” more than any QB in the NFL at this time. That said, Josh has not won the big one. Justifiably so, it’s hard to anoint him as the ultimate “Winner” until that time comes. Until then he seems to be stuck in this efficient ideology of NFL’s QB’s and if that shifts, he then goes to competing against a Super Bowl winning former MVP who is the only guy that can even come close to replicating some of the plays you might see from Allen week to week. Josh is not a normal QB. I don't think he will ever just unload for 5 yards unmercifully breaking your will like his predecessors. As for his sham wow ability, he probably is the top guy, but he's also getting compared to a MVP with a ring. That said nobody will ever convince me Mahomes wants it more or is as tough as Allen. Allen will run through your DT's. He isn't a Brett Farve comp, Brett Farve is a Josh Allen Comp. Farve, even with his stupid arm strength is still less physically gifted and he certainly couldn't run 1/10th as effective as Allen can. It might be hard for Allen to carve out a true identity which makes people question how good he really is. It unlikely he ever gets the efficiency label applied like many former legends have. That said once the SB rings come, It will be much easier to just label him for what he is. A winner.

It is awfully righteous of the NFL to act like they have ever cared about the rights of black players. Colin Kaepernick was all but kicked out of the league. It was publicly OK at that time to not condone his actions. 50%+ did not side with his actions saying he dishonored the flag. The NFL appealed to them. Now the NFL appeals to the advancement of black people and BLM because more than 50% believe in that movement. The NFL is basically a politician with nobody to hold them accountable. I imagine, face to face Grudens interactions with black people were fair. Mike Tirico seemed to almost be pleading for his job Sunday night. Gruden had a very positive reputation with his players, black and white. Still, people sometimes hide the truth in public, at the least, behave differently in private. Some people don't understand the gravity of what they say, others do. I don't think I'm confident I will know exactly where Gruden falls on the scale of prejudice. I certainly do not think he is alone, plenty of executives would likely be found guilty of a putting something in writing that is derogatory about sexuality or race if under the same telescope. Again, no more or less acceptable. Both the NFL and Gruden really are no better than each other.

I wouldn't say teams have 100% given up on the blitz, but Allen has gone from 42.7% last year to 13.7% this year. So they virtually have given up on it. Which we really adapted to after week 1. Allen is much more aware of his check down, Moss has done well in that role and Daboll has got much more creative and consistent in the run game. It's almost like Allen didn't expect it week 1, especially from Pittsburgh, now he's onto how teams are playing him. As is Daboll and I love the counter punch which in the end just gives the offense diversity. No reason a team like this can't pivot to a Roman like approach with a QB like Josh. We just need a few plays that do single wing/rpo concepts, we don't need to build an entire offense around it.

Just poor wording on my part. I meant we don't need to blitz to get pressure this year. I see it exactly as you do.

I'm not sure if many recall this, but we targeted Manny first, I wonder if he was decisive if we still get Diggs? Now we have them both. Beane clearly never forgot about Manny and I laugh when they call him old. He one of those age isn't relevant players. Just as smooth as it gets in his routes and can play anywhere. The riches we have at WR is just not fair. You could make two teams have a fairly decent group out of all of them. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/4/1/21202749/the-buffalo-bills-had-interest-in-wr-emmanuel-sanders-stefon-diggs-trade

If you look at Mahomes and Allen, you see a variation in how teams are going about defending them. Neither is getting blitzed like they once did. Allen's career blitz average is over 40% per attempt, this year it's just 13.7%, while Mahomes is at 13.8%, down from his career average of 23%. You saw how we played Mahomes and how teams have played us. Rush four, try and disrupt the pocket and play coverage. Is the blitz obsolete? Obviously not. We will never see the 85 Bears again. Reduced contact within 5 yards allows plays to start faster rendering the blitz more risky. I think teams have learned with Mahomes and Allen if you blitz and they evade you, it's over. You will be down defenders in coverage and they can throw from any position extending plays 6+ seconds. It isn't just saying don't blitz, you also need a defensive line to disrupt the pocket with only four rushers and enough meat in the middle to not get gutted in the ground game (sounds a lot like Pittsburgh). Excellent back end coverage certainly doesn't hurt either. Last year we didn't have the make up to do all these things. Very few teams have the make up to do all these, I thought Tampa Bay was about as close as anybody at the end of last year. Buffalo was built around it's coverage at DB and LB. We also have aggressive blitz packages. Getting a top notch DL was never something I envisioned as a real possibility this early. This year Star has been a different player. Maybe the year off revitalized him. He's absorbing two blockers and not conceding any space. Zimmer has been a very solid rotational player. Groot, Boogie, and AJ have injected another dimension into the pass rush. Then Hughes, Addison, and Oliver can all flash at anytime, all current or former starters, all of these guys rotating. Which is key, they stay fresh and offensive lineman never get a beat on tendency. It has to be maddening to face so many styles. We saw this style of defense on display all night and we dominated. We saw a much more aggressive, blitzing style defense on display previous weeks and we dominated. This defense was built on coverage and now it is a considerable threat without blitzing to get home. We have not had that luxury in the McDermott / Frazier era and they have had a lot of success without such a benefit. This defense has a chance to be historically good this season. We can play any style we want. DVOA from Football outsiders actually has us as being historically good as of this time with the KC game being against far and away the #1 offense in the NFL.

Jersey sales are not the meat of this discussion unless you think Mac Jones is also in the conversation. Everybody who wanted a Mahomes jersey this year already had one. Where Josh ascended last year, from being a jersey mostly bought by WNY and die hard fans to being the jersey of an MVP candidate. That is why Josh leads the league in jersey sales. In a couple years, regardless of how it goes, it won't be the same way because everybody will already have an Allen jersey. Having said all this, you saw how they marketed Favre. Allen is more charismatic than Favre. Allen could go directly to ESPN right now based on his communication skills and background. So yes, Allen will become the face of the league if the Bills win a Super Bowl. It's a no brainer to push things in that direction for the league. His back story is phenomenal, he plays a style that is as gritty as they come, he has interesting anecdotes, excellent communication skills, athletic freak, man of the people, and Bills mafia is actually becoming a rather popular brand for the league. They like to sell our passion as a fan base more so much than jumping through tables, but yes, Bills mafia is becoming an NFL brand and that will only grow with further with success.

He really is. If you just watch his more casual conversations in interviews he just keeps people laughing. Quick wit and really good sarcasm. One of the better ones to watch.

It almost looks like we are running the same defensive plan the Steelers did week 1. That said, this DL is the difference right now. They're getting home rushing four.

The KC OL has been holding Groot on almost every play.

It really was the shared vision and lack of ego between him and Beane that has made the difference. How many coach/GM combinations are actually friends, sharing the same vision on how to build a team, never in conflict with each other, never fighting for who is the biggest reason things have went well. Then with Terry and Kim, I think they both did a great job in identifying the right people and not micro managing them. We had one of the worst front offices in the NFL for almost 20 years and it really didn't matter the moving parts, it just never fit together. A lot of teams still look just like we used to or like we used to have an owner that gets too involved.

Be sure to send a strongly worded letter to the Bills analytics department that their contributions aren't relevant. But if we win based on said analytics wouldn't that make them relevant? Is your mind relevant?

All of us are pausing, which words should I pick? D*** V***** O? A**

Very quick and dirty. It measures every distance, down, score, situation, and assigns it a value which is stored as a historical data base. Then on a per play basis teams get assigned a value that is above or below the expected outcome. Outcome is measured in conventional ways, like yards, turnovers, points, first downs, etc. Then your DVOA is the sum divided by plays. As far as I'm concerned it's the most accurate predictor of future outcomes that exists.

Thanks Tuesday, I'm a huge fan of DVOA's prognostication power and thought the last two years early in the season we were a bit overrated. Then both years we made some major progress in DVOA as the season progressed. So even more DVOA plot twists, we have a pattern of improving as the season progresses I certainly expect some regression, the KC game will be a really big test, but the bottom line with this team, if you are a bottom 20 offense you will not beat us. They say "Any given Sunday" but not this team. Eventually we will get to 20 and lower performing offenses simply won't.

Stars biggest role in the defense to take out two blockers and free our LB's. Won't get you many PFF points or stats but he is the best on the team at doing this and it's clearly helped our LB's make plays.

Really good post, thank you

1- Ertz- probably (may take another thread)

I thought it was schemed into the pass pro. From my vantage point the interior rush was getting movement which is why I wasn't screaming at the roof tops over the improved line play, which was certainly improved. Allen just stepped away and up so naturally each time away from the pressure. It will be interesting to see some all 22 breakdown.

I was the one who made the 2019 Allen thread last week, I wanted to circle back to his incredible performance this week as well as review the outlook with the data we have. The data tells us teams have game planned for the Bills by avoiding the blitz. Understandably so, against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He was one of the best in the NFL. As of Sunday’s game, Allen and the Bills had faced blitzes on just 13.1% of his attempt’s vs 43% and 44%% in 2020 and 2019. Washington doubled down following the same path as Pittsburgh and Miami, reducing Allen’s Blitz against attempts to just 8.7% on the year. The differential year over year is surely the largest in NFL history and is not sustainable but the pattern is clear on how teams wanted to play the Bills. Pressure with your front four and try and make Josh force it. Teams have actually pressured Allen on the year 30.8% of his attempt’s vs 21.9% in 2020. Teams were getting home and with more people in coverage. The getting home changed against Washington dropping Allen’s pressure rate on the year to just 20.6%. The 10%+ drop now shows better stats than 2020. As far as the game within the game. I think Daboll and Allen did a few things really well. Allen seemed very alert early to check down routes which he has had in both the two previous games as well as understanding he was only facing a 4 man-rush. Our line played well, but Allen was incredible at taking one or two steps to completely allude the rush. He seemed to feel patient in doing so just knowing he can see four lineman and that’s all that’s coming. After he got warmed up you saw the full extent of his ability making nearly every throw imaginable and some that aren’t. Daboll called a reasonably balanced game and is no doubt game planning against this “no pressure” style defense teams have pulled the first three weeks. Josh and Daboll likely got teams to really think about being more balanced. Excellent adjustments, Josh should start to see more blitzes. It’s punch/counter punch league and we countered in a big way. Just to be clear, I never was being negative to Josh long term or really in that moment. Teams clearly adjusted to us, at the time we failed to beat the adjustment. We will likely see more of that again. Yes, in the future I won't jump the gun too early. Clearly such a massive difference in the way teams are approaching us this year vs last year shows a level of respect that is exciting. Peak potential arrives when no more adjustments exist which I only think can happen when you get studied and get the kitchen sink thrown at you. Perhaps that's the 2021 Allen we will eventually arrive at.

You forgot Bill Parcells, I don't think Simms is getting in. Also, I don't give Gibbs or Gruden additional credit based on this. Gruden was an offensive coach that happened to get one of the best defenses of all time and the Redskins just had an absolutely dominate squad in the 80's an early 90's. I agree with the poster that said BB, good coach, bad GM. He has been a very bad GM. He does a good job acquiring picks, but so many misses and very poor FA activity/trades. The conclusion of Brady's career was also dreadful in the way it was handled . Super Bowl windows still existed in New England if they would have gotten him more talent.

Josh is unconscious right now. One of the better first half's in Bills history at the QB position. Thrilled to see, will certainly give him his due after this one.

6"7, 265 and attacks the ball in the air. Catches everything with his hands and covers a massive catch radius with his height and arm length. Above average speed and agility for a player his size. I doubt we get in a position to draft him, but wow. The guy is a more athletic version on Antonio Gates (he played basketball in the past as well). I wasn't aware of him until I watched the the game Friday night and I came away with my jaw on the floor. I thought Kyle Pitts was the second coming, but Wood will give him a run for his money. I don't think he gets slotted like Pitts. Maybe we have a shot. Really enjoyed watching his game.