MasterStrategist

Thanks for the great analysis and write up! Agree with alot of your thoughts. My review: 1. We had 1 pressing need entering the draft, and we took care of that Round 1. 2. If there were two "traits" that I thought we needed to address in the offseason, they were team speed and physicality in the trenches. Physicality was addressed via FA, and we GREATLY improved team speed on both sides of the ball through the draft. I'm always optimistic that we nailed the draft, and it likely be a few years before we know for sure which team "won" the draft. But I'm confident our first two picks will bring immediate value.

Completely agree. On top of this, McDermott and the Baylor coach have a great relationship. It helps to know you can trust a college coach who has seen him develop for multiple years, how he approaches practice/leadership, etc. We need to wait and see what role the coaches have in mind, but these are all valuable for a 3rd rounder: 1. Primary LB backup and STs: we know Milano has issues staying healthy for all 17 games, need a more athletic/cheaper replacement for Klein. 2. Certain coverage/3rd down packages: he could be a mathchup dependent chess piece, ie: against talented TEs, or could be deployed in the "Zo" role and how they used Klein at times, as an edge rusher/blitz packages. Kid has the athletic/leadership traits to be a good player, might need time to get stronger but coaches will find a role for him. We needed more team speed on defense, he's a piece toward that.

Wait a minute....so round 1 an athletic corner, with man/zone press skills and recovery speed. Then now this is round 3, an instinctive cover LB who can lock up on TEs. Seems like we are trying to fix something that must have been a glaring weakness against KC. Not sure why so many feel the need to say "I had so and so as a 6th rounder", or what value is he going to bring. Hello, Beane and staff know what they're doing, and have a plan to keep adding the necessary pieces to put us over the top. I'm sure if you go back and rematch thr KC game, our lack of speed on defense will stand out in more than 1 occasion. We needed to fix that, and our physicality at the DT spots...check and check

If Skyy Moore is still available at our pick, he would be an instant playmaker from the slot and someone that Diggs could groom for future outside role.

Agree, about the 4th being valuable. However, disagree with the rest. Elam is extremely hard-working, already has a professional attitude and likely will have his "fundamental flaws" coached out of him by the end of training camp. He's going to start and be a good one for a while. Giving up the 4th round pick to secure the player they wanted (many will also say 'needed'), is the price Beane was willing to pay. He's earned my trust, especially given their track record with secondary acquisitions.

Dalton can play multiple, but likely going to be a safety with Bates in Cincy

Great press zone/man type, with loads of athletic ability. Let's not forget what happened against KC, getting absolutely toasted by Hill and Kelce. We had a HUGE need for speed, both at CB and playmakers. 2nd rounder will be a speed guy on offense.

Willis to Steelers will happen, if he's on the board. Steelers might even move up a few spots for him. He's exactly what Tomlin wants, and with Colberts last year as their GM, I think he will look for the next franchise QB to add onto his legacy there.

I think it was postponed, back in January...so sorta old news. But agree, frustrating to many and prayers to the kids/family.

Great analysis and thank you, @GunnerBill. I think this could setup a "trade back" situation, for teams at the end of round 1. Some QB needy team selecting in the top 10, may not spend that capital on this crop but willing to part with their 2nd and 3rd to move up if "their guy" is still available (and many teams have varying opinions, no true #1 qb prospect this season). Couple this with a fewer 1st round graded players, maybe 20ish, and this presents a good chance teams will be looking to move up to 18-22 range, or out of round 1.

I think that's fair, my original thought was $9-10m per AAV, given cap likely to keep increasing value. 1 problem I see is if we give this to Jordan, then Micah is immediately underpaid (compared to Poyer). To me, both are worth similar $s, and I haven't done the research to see total value each player has received while in Buffalo, but may factor into decisions. On the other hand, I am a big supporter of Hamlin and think he could be ready to step up as a starter by 2023. Jordan has 2-3 great seasons left though, so my preference would be to keep him and Hyde working together.

I stand corrected, I misunderstood what was originally reported and what Joe was trying to communicate. Makes sense, thanks for clarifying. (and I can tell you certainly understand cap 😀).

Not sure if you're trying to be snarky, or just don't understand cap rules. Converting salary to bonus is a typical move, to create additional cap room in current season. He had a $1.5 base salary (fully guaranteed in 2022), according to Joe they converted it all to bonus. So Bates will receive that money immediately, and Bills get to spread the $1.5m across his 4 yr deal (hence saving the approx $1.2m). Not sure what's difficult to understand.

Long post, not sure it's accurate either. Bates had a $1.5m base salary for 2022, that's what Beane just converted; hence saving the exact amount against the cap that Joe B reported. Again, base salary was converted, not a guaranteed bonus.

Agree complelety. We are at least going to sign a FA, just depends if its a mid level ($3-5M range) or top end (probably 2 left, in Gilmore or trade for Bradberry, unless something unforeseen). Gilmore likely asking for something that could cost $8-12m in cap and Bradberrys current contract is ridiculous ($21m cap hit, would require reworking/extension). If our front office/coaches, think... 1. two or more off these are true: Tre ready by early season, believe Dane can be a #2 corner, and/or a rookie can step in as a starter or contribute immediately. Then likely we look for a mid level type. OR 2. two or more off these are true: flipped scenario above. then we could go after a Gilmore or Bradberry. I'd think scenario 1 is more likely, ie: wait until after draft (draft a corner in the round 1-3 range), and then sign a mid level guy.

Jahan Dotson, WR Kenneth Walker, RB

I guess it comes down to whether you think Dotson can play both inside and outside, which I think he can and he proved at Penn St against some solid competition. I think his versatility will be valued by our offensive staff, guess we shall see. I just can't get on board drafting a guy (like Watson), who is highly likely relegated to play outside only, unless he's can't miss. I'm not thinking he is, he's the definition of boom/bust. Not when we have Davis still. Davis may not have proven himself, enough yet, but think we should avoid blocking him from seeing the field (ie: Sanders, last yr).

Interesting you say this, then say Dotson is more of a slot Wr type. Isn't that an added bonus? Watson ran very few routes from the slot, I don't think he's a fit there. Which would essentially give us 2 strictly outside guys (Watson and Davis). Forcing us to play Diggs in the slot, if we put Watson, Davis and Diggs in 3 wr sets. Not sure how that adds value, then burns a 1st round pick.

Does he have versatility to play slot and outside? To me he doesn't, which means we relegate Diggs to slot anytime we would have him, Diggs and Davis in 3 wr sets. Not a fan of this.

I'll give 2...Big Ten alum. Give me speed and let's see anyone stop this offense. 1st round: Dotson. Playmaker who can play in the slot, move outside, has a 17 ypc average. 2nd best deep ball WR coming out in this class. Let him continue to add strength and learn alongside Diggs. This will be a trio of Wrs (Diggs, Davis, Dotson),would be extremely difficult to defend. 2nd round: keep adding to the offensive playmakers, and get Kenneth Walker RB. He is a similar RB to Motor, but with a completely different top gear...great vision, he hopefully makes it to end of round 2. We lacked offensive team speed last season. Take some pressure off Josh and get some guys who can make the homerun plays.

Fair enough, I think he got alot stronger heading into senior season, so I see him having ability to really flourish in a system like ours (moving all around). Especially think he could become a future WR1, learning beside Diggs. Unfortunately I think the Packers will use the acquired pick from Raiders to draft him at #21.

Just my opinion, but Dotson is a smoother route runner/fluid and will be the better NFL prospect. Watson obviously didn't play in a pass heavy offense, and he played at a much lower level, so there's some "projection" of course. Not the type of player I want in Round 1, if other proven guys are there.

Give me Jahan Dotson 1000x before Watson, at least in Round 1. If we wait until Round 2, Watson would be a nice trade up candidate. Dotson is the 2nd best deep ball WR in this class, and if you watch him play, reminds of AB (w/o the drama).

Again confused, because it's not like we need to come up with "new money" to sign Poyer, actually extending him would likely create more cap room in 2022. I think Beanes comment was about signing any new FAs, at least as of now. They have decent wiggle room available, if they want to extend or convert a couple players salaries to bonus $s. Beane is very methodical/calculated with his approach, so I trust he will budget accordingly.

Agree with this. I also think they should try tying him and Hyde to same contract length. To me, it's the duo not individual safety, that makes this tandem so good. Their communication, instincts, ability to both play a FS/SS role, mix up coverages, etc is what is so special. I don't think we get that with 1 and not the other. So I'm trying to keep the duo together for 2 more years. Aside, i do like Hamlin and thought he'd go in the 4th last year, thought we got good value.