Ethan in Cleveland
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Posts posted by Ethan in Cleveland
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Give Allen the best chance to make it. Draft a TE and an OT in two of the first three rounds. Then add no less than 4 front 7 defenders. Finish the draft off with a RB and a Punter. Trade the rest of the picks to move up or preferably for more picks in 2020.
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1 hour ago, Just Joshin' said:
Would you trade #9 and Josh for Wilson? I think I would not but Buffalo might be instant contender.
Yes I would but only if he signs a 6 year contact.
He is not going to Buffalo even though it is closer to NYC than Seattle is.
If I'm Seattle I make the deal to the Giants for Barkely, Two #1's this year and a second in 2020.
55 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:Considering they were one of the top4 defenses in football last year, signed a couple of good receivers and OL, have the #9 pick...
Wilson would instantly turn them into a top team
I'm going to say that your comment is just being made to argue because it's pretty obvious how good this team would be with a QB of Wilson's caliber behind the wheel
Top 4 in yards is not a top 4 defense. They were an average defense and got torched at times. Awful pass rush. They need to generate at least 16 more sacks,16 more QB pressures along with 8 more turnovers.
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No. With the FA signings the needs in order are EDGE/OLB, DT, TE, OT. WR is fine to address in the 3rd round. Maybe Zay can turn it around and if Foster continues to develop they could have a solid 4. Adding a star TE does more for that group than another WR.
Because I think the best DL will be gone by 9, I favor TE at # 9 or hopefully a few spots lower.
I would be fine with a Taylor if he drops or maybe the WSU OT. An OT can compete to start at RT or at worst is insurance if Dawkins regresses further or has a high contract demand. But again TE is a more crucial need for this franchise. Kroft is basically the same non-descript average talent they have had at TE for decades.
All that said, if Sweat, Gary, or Oliver are there at 9 the Bills will take one of those guys. Certainly if Allen or Williams drop to 9 they will be all over one of them.
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Sample size and context. White moves around and often but not always takes the #1 WR. Darby was able to play opposite Gilmore. Let's all hope Wallace is a true UDFA gem. If both he and Foster continue to improve and do not regress that would be huge. They would be cheap and the team controls their ability to move with restricted FA tenders.
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3 hours ago, frogger said:
I don’t think buffalo needs more picks, they don’t have a ton of room on there roster. I’d rather see Buffalo stay at 9, get an immediate impact player, then look to get another solid player in the 2nd, then trade back into the 2nd to get another. We don’t need fillers. We have a lot of depth.
They need a starter at TE, OLB, DT, and maybe WR and RT. I would love four picks in the first three rounds and coming away with at least one pass catcher and two pass rushers
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4 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:
If he is so much a difference maker why must he be traded down for? It's apparent that you have nowledge that NFL teams do not and I'm interested in finding out more about it.
He doesn’t but historically TEs just aren't taken that high. And in this draft the better value will be DL at 9. Now that could change if some crazy stuff happens like the Cards passing on Murray and Tampa not taking a LB. There could be a huge run on DL/edge players in the first 8 picks. If that happens Fant, Metcalf, or an OT may be BPA that is not a QB. That is when you put the 9th pick up for auction and see what happens. If no-one bites take Fant and pencil in 7 TDs
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6 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:
It's not about how many spots they moved, it's about the tier that they moved to
Picks "value points" aren't linear
The gap from pick to pick widens the closer to the top of the draft you are
Anyway these are guidelines
It's like (making up numbers) they aren't going to take a 4th, 5th, and two 6th for a late first even if the "points" align
Agree. But it is also multiple picks for one late first rounder. The success rate between pick 20 and pick 40 can not be much if any.
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6 hours ago, MAJBobby said:
Ok first Trade I see. And like that idea to grab another top 100 pick and still get an elite talent
Second I don’t.
I wonder if anyone accurately predicts trades. So many variables based on players already gone.
It takes two and probably a special circumstance for Bills to pass on an elite DL at #9. But Denver, Miami, Washington, and NYG all have QB needs. Could make it interesting.
If Murray doesn't go #1, the top 10 will be nuts with possible trade down scenarios for every team with the depth at DL this year.
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7 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:
Jimmy Johnson value
#21 (sea) = 800
#41 (den) = 490
#71 (den) = 235
That's 725 vs 800
Seattle isn't giving up the #21 pick for that.
Seattle moved down 9 spots in 2018 and picked up a 3rd and swapped 6th and 7thr round picks.
For dropping 20 spots in my scenario they pick up a second and a third that is 6 spots higher than the 2018 third round pick from the Packers.
You are probably correct the Bills would need to throw in a 6th this year or maybe a 4th in 2020.
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16 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:
So you're saying Denver moves up from #10 to #9 to secure a QB when they know we aren't taking one??
Or are you implying they do that to block the Giants from jumping up to #9??
You also aren't going to get #20 from Seattle for #40 and #71 ??
Yes I'm suggesting the Bills put a rumor out about NYG wanting to trade up after they take a DL at #6
The points add up for the Seattle trade as I suggested. Maybe add a 6th or 7th to sweeten the deal a little.
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3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:
Ok new rule. You want to trade down say who wants to come up and for who, also what would be the package
Denver #10 and #71
Bills #9 and #158
Denver takes Lock
Bills take Oliver at #10
Then they trade #40 and #71 to Seattle for # 20 and draft Fant
Denver wants a QB and needs to stay ahead of Miami and NYG who will want Lock at #9
Seattle needs to trade out of the first round
The points add up and still leaves the Bills with their 3rd round pick to use on a WR or Edge (doubt much value at OT in 3rd round)
OR
NYG #17 and #37
Bills #9
NYG takes Lock at #9
Bills take Fant at 17 then BPA 37 and 40
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Wow I thought Bart Starr was next. He looked awful last time he was on tv
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5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
Reasonable.
I think Beane would love to trade back for Hockenson and then use the 10+ picks he'd have at his disposal at that point to trade back into the 1st for DL.
I don't know. I fear McBeane is a fall in love with one guy GM/HC tandem and will waste picks to get a certain player. Zay, Dawkins, Allen, Edmunds are 4 players chosen requiring 7 picks and two players to draft them. That is what they collectively have done two years in a row. Maybe that will change this year.
As for trading back up in the first, the 10 picks are mostly useless in that regard. In you scenario they would trade back a few spots and at best get a second round pick. Well to get back into the first they would either need to give up a #1 next year (not going to happen) or probably give up both number 2's. In that scenario all you did was move up from early in the second round to late in the first. All that gets you is a more expensive rookie that is no more likely to pan out.
This is the year to trade back and get more picks. There is depth at DL, Edge, TE, and WR. All positions of need. OT class is not great.
The play is trade down a few spots, still get a great pick, and add an additional day 2 pick. Then package some of the day 3 picks for higher day 3 picks or better yet higher 2020 picks. Also it would be fine to take a few fliers late in the draft, basketball guy that played TE at a high level in HS, a KR ( Ray Ray is awful), a punter (ours are awful), and a PK (Hausch was average last year and has been up and down his whole career).
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On 4/6/2019 at 5:11 AM, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:
I could be wrong, but I get the sense TE have one of the highest bust rates.
I just hate the idea of using a first round pick on a guy that would be the worst blocker on the line and one of the worst WRs on the team. I mean, a good year for a tight end is 600+ yards. That is like a bad WR2, average WR3.
Why use a first round pick for that production?
I don't think you are analyzing this correctly. It's about matchups.
A TE is not asked to block a NT, DT or even a 3-4 DE. By definition he is blocking an OLB, SS, or at worst a 4-3 DE. A quality TE will be taller and at least as big and often bigger then the player he is assigned to block. Still yet, rarely is the TE blocking solo, it is usually a combination block with the OT or a pulling guard.
With regard to TE in the pass game, it would be great if the TE was so good that an opposing defense played a top CB against him. That would mean he is an elite pass catcher. However even the best tightends rarely draw coverage from any other positions than slot DB's, safeties and linebackers. That sets up mismatches all over the field. A third WR is not a mismatch against most nickel DBs. A great TE is a huge mismatch against a TE, a nickel DB, or a safety based on speed or size or both.
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At 9 they are taking DL. Trade down and they take TE or OT
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I don't think much of Murray but I like everyone else don't know.
But my guess is there is not much of a market to trade up. The 1-5 top defenders are basically interchangeable. The only team in striking distance with a need for a QB is the Giants and my guess is they want a 6'4" QB and not a smurf to play in that weather.
The Cards are a bit screwed. Their best value may be to draft Murray and trade Rosen for New England's #1 or Giants #2. That may be as good as they can do.
Otherwise it is probably Bosa.
From the other perspective, if Arizona passes on Murray, I think he and at a minimum Haskins is/are still on the board at #9. I believe Giants use their first number 1 on a defender and then try to get QB of the future later in the first round.
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On 4/8/2019 at 9:41 AM, Augie said:
You are correct.
You are indeed in the minority.
?
No he isn't. Almost everyone wanted Whaley to sign Dareus to an extension. You can't have a revisionist history. You can blame Dareus for not living up to the contract or the coaches for not motivating/utilizing him. You can blame Whaley for not having the foresight for assessing Dareus' response to getting the big contract. But you can't go back and say he didn't earn the new contract. He was a dominant run stuffing DT with a little bit of a pass rush. Almost everyone wanted to keep him and there is little doubt he would have gotten the same money from a different team.
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13 hours ago, thebandit27 said:
I don't mean to blast the OP here...
The team already has 10 picks
They aren't devoid of the on-the-roster, role-player types that are found on days 2 and 3
The team lacks genuine studs at nearly all positions
Free agency has brought a LOT of depth at the 2/3 spots at most positions
All of the above indicate that they should trade UP, not down.
Accumulating picks can be a useful tool if a team needs to change culture and/or strengthen their depth. This team needs a few studs that other teams are forced to game plan around.
I would MUCH rather see them use their top 10 pick on a stud pass rusher (either at DT or EDGE) and then package day 2/3 picks and move back into round 1 for another stud at either WR, CB, DL, or LT.
Only 3 picks in first three rounds. They will not pick 10 so they may move up in late rounds or better yet trade out for higher round next year
3 hours ago, mannc said:I'm sorry, but this is fantasy land. Miami is going to struggle this year and they are never trading next year's first round pick to move from 13 to 9. Never. Nor is Denver trading their second round pick to move up one slot. It is simply not happening. As I mentioned above, the Cardinals were able to move from 15 to 10 for Rosen last year and only gave up a third (plus a late round pick).
There will be plenty of teams in the top 10 (including Detroit at 8, supposedly) who will be willing to trade down. I think it's going to be much cheaper than people think to trade up after Williams, Allen and Bosa are off the board.
You are probably correct. But if QBs are in play strange things happen
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The play will be Miami and Denver. Miami will want to jump Denver to get a QB. Beane needs to get them in a bidding war. Trade with Denver and get their seond round pick and only drop one slot and still get the same player they would have picked at 9. Or take a chance with Miami and drop to 13. Get next years #1 from Miami and still shoudl be able to take Hockenson, Fant, or second best OT at 13.
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Here is a better scenario than CB or safety. What if BPA is a center?
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23 minutes ago, Logic said:
I was thinking about this the other day.
There are many fans on this board who say they're totally fine with the BPA strategy, i.e. drafting the best player available no matter what.. Many will go to great lengths to defend it or remind everyone daily that it's the way to go. I get it. I really do. I'm not here to argue against taking the best player available in each round. It's fine with me. I think every team does a little bit of lip service to it every year while also making draft picks that make it clear that "need" is at least a LITTLE BIT of a factor, but I digress.
The point of this post is this: You say you're all for taking the best player available in each round, but if that idea is put to the test, how will you react?
Here's the scenario --
The Bills have selected, let's say, Ed Oliver with pick 9. Now, after anxiously waiting for the Bills to be on the clock in the second round, it's finally time. Still available on the board are N'Keal Harry, Hakeem Butler, Irv Smith Jr, Chris Lindstrom, and Dalton Risner. The Bills turn in their card. We all wait with great anticipation as it is announced...."With the 40th pick in the 2019 NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills select....Rock Ya-Sin, cornerback, Temple". Or "The Buffalo Bills select Jonathan Abram, safety, Mississippi State".
Well? What's your reaction? Are you thrilled that the Bills got the highest rated player on their board? Are you not at all bothered that they didn't fill their offensive "needs"? What say you? When the tires hit the pavement, are you truly on board with drafting the BPA?
BPA is all bull####. They will draft DL, TE, OLB, OT with the first four picks.
Beane will just spin it with some nonsense on how they had a bunch of guys they coukd have gone with and they were lucky the draft unfolded to get the guys they did.
It’s the same GM speak every year.
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1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:
Having players that will actually catch and do something with a ball would help with that
Josh is running because our RB's could not.....Josh is making plays because other players on the team could not
Agree about the WRs.
Josh was running because the line was terrible and he was processing maybe 2 reads at best before taking off. To his credit he stood tall in the pocket and took a few shots while delivering the ball. Just needs to be a half a second faster on his decisions and clean up the shot to medium length passes
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I love Allen as the QB. He made plays but not the kind that consistently win NFL games.
I've posted before. Just give me a 2:1 TD to INT ratio or better (something like 25:10 would be a nice improvement) and 60% completion percentage in year 2 and I will be happy.
Less running. More pocket throws to moving targets.
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5 hours ago, hjnick said:
Interesting take.
I don't think Beane, in his grand plan, was planning on trying to make the playoffs that year. Of course, he'll take it, but he knew the roster needed to be blown up.
If you are going to purge players/salary, he got a lot of value out of some of them so we could even have a shot at Josh.
Also, why stretch the dead money over years instead of just taking a 1 year hit and get rid of all the dead money in one shot.
We have made it thru, now let's see how he does.
This is a fair take and to be honest its all we can do now - look forward and evaluate his decisions/selections.
Barring a complete disaster he and McD will survive this year. But if Allen fails and no playoffs in 2019 or 2020 they are both gone
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Clowney and the Texans are still far apart.
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Clowney is not worth the money. He is not a top 10 DE. Not even close. Yes he is better than Lawson but not at the price he thinks he is worth. To take on his contract the most the Bills should give up is a second round pick. But I wouldn't do it. They have a ton of cap space next year and some of the deals signed this year and last will come off the books. Save the money for next off-season. 2019 is all about Josh Allen and determining if he is the franchise QB. That is why I was ok with them chasing AB. With the WR signings they have made it is time to double down on TE and OT. And draft youth on the DL. Not overpay for hype.