ImpactCorey

Ok guys... we just need 3 safeties.

Under 5 minutes they have to look at that right?

Actually.. they are already getting close with lots of time and 3 timeouts. Not out of the question....

So... regulation ends with Colts kidding a FG, onside kick, and another FG right?... RIGHT?

NOOOOOOOOO

What about Moss? 🤣

Depends on the Jags/Titans game. Titans win, Colts are still in, otherwise they are both out.

👀

A tie!

Welp, I updated the chart. Time to cheer on a tie!

Relax. I was only kidding about that part.

Well, the good news is a tie with Miami still gets the Bills into the playoffs. As a matter of fact, if ANY of the 4 games that matter to the Bills end in a tie, they are in.

I do like that match up. I wouldn't be too afraid of Pittsburgh either.

You're mostly correct. 85% assumes that every game has a 50/50 shot. Vegas odds alone tells us this isn't the case. Some teams are more likely to win any one game over another. Using current Vegas odds and the 3 games in question (Pitt/Balt, Tenn/Jax, Buf/Miami), the games can be adjusted to show that a result that hurts the Bills has a percent chance of 59.4%, 65.8%, and 45.5% respectively. Multiplying those out to get the odds that exact sequence happening and the Bills missing is 17.8%. That means the chances of Bills making is %100 - 17.8% or 82.2%, lower than your suggested 85%. This also assuming that no ties happen, which is a safe assumption.

That is true, unless of course the Steelers win. It is the FIRST game that matters, but not the only.

Its true. The Pats can lock up highest draft pick in the AFC.

I had to update my diagram due to a typo. Thanks to @RangerDave for pointing it out!

Only if this happens. Any other outcome proves 100% scientifically that the NFL is a game of skill and nothing else. 😆

It Australia it snows EVERY July.

I get what you're saying, but you're wrong about no reason to go for it in that circumstance. With a tie you have the chance to make the playoffs. With a loss you do not.

I put together this helpful diagram in game time order so you you know that stakes as we approach the Bills game Sunday night.

If either of them wins, it puts the Steelers-Ravens and Jags-Titans games in play (and of course the Bills game).

The Texans vs Colts game is a big one. Win and in. But there is something else on the line: if they tie the Bills are in! No other games end up mattering (for playoff birth alone). Furthermore if that game ends in a tie and Steelers and Jaguars both end up winning, both the Texans and Colts are out. If I was the one scripting the NFL, this is the curveball I'd throw out there.

He did not 😔

... he lost this game