ImpactCorey

Welp. There's the Josh Allen hat trick.

Thanks for your feedback. Perhaps you missed the posts calling me names or using various insults about the validity of the topic's existence in the first place. Fortunately it's just a few bad actors. Most people have been awesome, however!

I get that your own policy would restrict yourself from posting as well. Maybe you meant creating topics vs posting within topics? Would have been funnier if you didn't screw it up.

How exactly would one post if they couldn't post until they had 1000 posts? 🤔

I've been called a lot of things, but I WILL not be labeled a ranch user! 🤣

I totally agree with this take. Just need the Fins to drop one of the next two games!

Ok, let me lay it out super clear for you. There is no official percentage applied to the word. One of its definitions simply means there is reason to believe something could happen. You may have heard the term "probable cause"? Guess what? That does not mean someone is calculating whether or not there is a 51% chance someone is guilty of a crime. No, it means there is enough of a reasonable concern to look into them. The word reasonable is very important here. Now on to this thread. When I saw that there was a less than 1% chance the Bills win out and miss the playoffs I figured it was because there was no REASON to believe it was actually going to happen. I assumed it meant there would have to be a bunch of tied games or the Panthers beating a contender. I was surprised to find that this wasn't the case. On the contrary, there was a scenario that COULD actually happen. Yes, it is unlikely because a lot of things have to happen, but there was a reason to believe it could happen. This was my application of the word. I have no problem with people saying they do not think it is probable because that's an opinion. The personal attacks just seem unnecessary for a hypothetical scenario that I thought I would share. The fact that people are all up in arms about this is funny to me. Relax and critique the scenario rather than the word. Is your life really that boring that you need to lash out?

And I'm impressed by how nasty people can get by the use of a single word. You'd think I insulted people's mothers or something.

For sure. It is funny how one week I'm the biggest Cowboys hater and the next I'm their biggest fan. 😆 Not concerned. It was a fun thought exercise to escape holiday stress for one night, though. What do you think the payout would be for say.... $10? 😆 I'll take that parlay.

Blasphemy!!!

Good grief, I already posted multiple entries from dictionaries all over the web. Worst kept secret of all time.

It may be the only definition you are aware of, but that does not make it so. That said, nobody here is interested in me tutoring you and I'd rather stay on topic of the scenario I defined.

I'm not sure how reliable the Oxford "Learners" Dictionary is because it is targeted toward those just learning English (and therefore not a complete reference), but I generally rely on the Oxford English Dictionary which includes all 11 definitions including

Like many words, probable has multiple meanings. I even lowered expectations by saying it "somewhat" or "in some part" had some grounds for believing it could happen. So yeah, it means exactly what I intended, Grungy.

The only difference shown here vs my scenario is Miami losing one of their next two. Definitely need that to happen.

I'm of the opinion that if the Bills lose any of their next 3 games, they don't get in. I just don't see it happening with their weak tie-breaking position.

The perfect storm has to happen! Here's to hoping it doesn't. Go Bills!

Yes. Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis are not in the same division.

You're missing a very important piece: The key detail here is how the process is repeated. So while you eliminate them on first pass, you do not on the second.

I'm sorry but you are incorrect. I laid it out here

Excellent analysis. Go Bills!

I hear ya. However, that game was their first of the year when gimpy Burrow was basically a liability on the field. He only threw for 82 yards! There is no way its a blow out the next time they face.

Thanks for bringing this up! You got me looking deeper into this and boy does it get tricky. First thing that happens is division leaders are determined. Given my scenario, Miami, Baltimore, and KC have the best records so they get it. However, in the AFC South, Jax and Indy would be tied but Jax would have the head-to-head so they get it. On to figuring out the wildcards! https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures The rules state that when you have 3 or more teams tied across divisions, you basically keep using divisional rankings and compare the leaders. So you start with Buffalo, Indy, and figure out the leader of Cleveland and Cincy. This ends up being Cleveland because while the head-to-head would be tied, Cincy has the better conference record. Of Buffalo, Indy, and Cleveland only Indy and Cleveland played each other so head-to-head can't be used and moves on to conference record. That goes to between Indy and Cleveland who would both be 8-4. With one team removed from the tie, this RE-applies head-to-head so Cleveland gets the first wildcard! Next battle goes between Buffalo, Cincy, and Indy. Both Buffalo and Indy lost to Cincy, so Cincy is in! Final spot goes to either Buffalo and Indy who didn't face each other. But as we established earlier, Indy has the better conference record so they get it. My SAT scores would confirm this!

This scenario is very similar to the one I laid out! The main difference is Miami losing out instead of winning 2 of 3. That's the swing between Miami missing and Buffalo missing. I could be. Or maybe a long-time Bills fan that has become so accustomed to heartbreak that I agonize over even the least likely of possibilities. 😅

I accept all blame 😅