ImpactCorey

I think people might assume I want this to happen while I really really don’t. I expected a little bit of push back but all I wanted was to talk about how crazy it is where a team can go 11-6 and still miss without something insane like every game ending in a tie for the rest of the season. I wanted to lay out a believable case and root for it to NOT happen. Merry Christmas! It is coming so fast! I needed a distraction for one night 😅

Hey no worries at all. Go Bills!

You need to factor in the entire sentence together. I’m saying in a world where the Bills win out and still miss the playoffs this is the most likely scenario where it happens. There are other (not many) extremely unlikely scenarios not worth talking about. I’m a statistics guy and got curious what some of those less than 1% chance scenarios looked like. I figured others might be too and shared my work. It doesn’t mean I want (or even think) it will actually happen it is also important to note that simulators just brute force the possible win/loss records without factoring in match ups or anything. When you look at the actual remaining schedules for teams and the likelihood of outcomes based on Vegas odds I think you’ll find it is slightly more possible than the less than 1% suggests.

It is possible but I don't think so. I spent way more time messing around with results than I should have haha. But if you figure out something I'm missing let me know!

I think you're right about them not winning out but I could see them winning this weekend's match up. Bengals on a 3 game winning streak while Steelers on a 3 game skid.

I prefer wings on the bone. Go Bills!

True. Maybe I'll come up with a banger like how much nuggets cost. That's true!

Crazy. And that's with playing 1 less game!

Valuable? No. But apparently it was interesting enough for you to participate! Thanks for stopping by.

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs. >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs? This is what I came up with: - First, the Bills win out. They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins. With how they are playing as of late, very possible. - The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills. These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens. This allows them to still win the division. These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible. - With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers. I think the Steelers game is almost a lock. - The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans. All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy. - Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers. These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage. However, KC drops one to the Bengals. More on this later. - The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans. Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way. - The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals. Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets. This seems reasonable. Bengals being a key loss again. - The Bengals win out. They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns. Two key wins as previously mentioned. This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial. Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes. Steelers are falling apart. Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up. I'll definitely be paying attention. So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out. You know.. in case you were wondering.

I thought so too... until you actually run through scenarios. The teams they are in a race with have very easy schedules and because of tie breakers, you need them to lose 2 games if the Bills lose 1. What's worse, is that even if ONE of the teams loses that needs to, they likely lose to a team that the Bills ALSO need to lose. So the way I see it, the only way the Bills get in is if they win out.

never secured it. FCS

Is there a worse play than the shotgun hand off?

I can hear this image.

I never complain about refs, but these ones are garbage.

No targeting a defenseless receiver. No PI. Yet they call EVERYTHING on the Bills. Lame.

I'm reminded of a certain MNF game against Dallas...

Hyde was going to pick that off.

This is why you don't taunt.

AJ: the closer.

Sign up one of those dogs for WR.

Its not scared, its aggressive. A miss gives you great field position. Letting them kick it there means they run the clock out before kicking.

This team needs a LB so bad.

Yes great idea. We should also run the Steel Curtain defense. It won a championship for the Steelers!

You can add Marv Levy this this list....