ImpactCorey

You're mostly correct. 85% assumes that every game has a 50/50 shot. Vegas odds alone tells us this isn't the case. Some teams are more likely to win any one game over another. Using current Vegas odds and the 3 games in question (Pitt/Balt, Tenn/Jax, Buf/Miami), the games can be adjusted to show that a result that hurts the Bills has a percent chance of 59.4%, 65.8%, and 45.5% respectively. Multiplying those out to get the odds that exact sequence happening and the Bills missing is 17.8%. That means the chances of Bills making is %100 - 17.8% or 82.2%, lower than your suggested 85%. This also assuming that no ties happen, which is a safe assumption.

That is true, unless of course the Steelers win. It is the FIRST game that matters, but not the only.

Its true. The Pats can lock up highest draft pick in the AFC.

I had to update my diagram due to a typo. Thanks to @RangerDave for pointing it out!

Only if this happens. Any other outcome proves 100% scientifically that the NFL is a game of skill and nothing else. 😆

It Australia it snows EVERY July.

I get what you're saying, but you're wrong about no reason to go for it in that circumstance. With a tie you have the chance to make the playoffs. With a loss you do not.

I put together this helpful diagram in game time order so you you know that stakes as we approach the Bills game Sunday night.

If either of them wins, it puts the Steelers-Ravens and Jags-Titans games in play (and of course the Bills game).

The Texans vs Colts game is a big one. Win and in. But there is something else on the line: if they tie the Bills are in! No other games end up mattering (for playoff birth alone). Furthermore if that game ends in a tie and Steelers and Jaguars both end up winning, both the Texans and Colts are out. If I was the one scripting the NFL, this is the curveball I'd throw out there.

He did not 😔

... he lost this game

Passing TD to complete the Josh Allen hat trick?

Ok. THAT was a nice throw.

He's trash today. Yes.

I love Josh as much as the next guy. He's my favorite player. But you have to admit he is NOT playing well right? Like not even close.

Trash Allen.

Maybe that's Kyle Allen out there.

Correction. Another INT. As bad as Allen is playing, at least his QB rating isn't 0.0 like Zappe.

Only completion in this game so far an interception by a D-lineman. Pretty cool.

We all want the Bills to win out and hopefully take the division! However, if for some reason they end up losing instead, these are the games to watch for the outcome because the Bills could still make the playoffs if these are the results: Week 17 Colts beat Raiders - Raiders playing inspired football but doable Titans beat Texans - Possible if Stroud is still out Seahawks beat Steelers - Very possible Chiefs beat Bengals - a likely KC bounce back against a flailing Cincy team Week 18 Browns beat Bengals - Browns are hot! Bengals are not Colts beat Texans - another toss up Ravens beat Steelers - as long as Ravens aren't resting starters Broncos lose in week 17 or 18 (Chargers or Raiders) - No more Russell? I'd count on at least one loss here You know... in case you were wondering. Go Bills!

Flacco is Backo

After that Denver loss, it seemed all but certain that the Bills would miss the playoffs. Now here we are with not only an opportunity for the #2 seed but one that is very possible. What a turn of events. Go Bills!

What a waste of a timeout. Would have been better off taking the penalty.