VW82

Ok so taking the lower left chart as example, would you agree that one of the dots in the red bulls eye is more accurate than one of the dots in the white space? My interpretation is fine. You're making the same mistake as OP in assuming that there are no degrees of accuracy. It's harder to catch a pass at the knees or shoelaces (where you have to bend down to get it) than one that hits you right in the chest. One pass is more accurate than the other.

An accurate throw is one that hits the receiver in the numbers (i.e. a bulls eye). A throw that hits him in the knees is less accurate. A throw that hits him in his shoe is even less accurate than the one at the knees. Precision refers to the deviations of his throws from one another. If all of Josh's throws were at knee level, he'd be very precise (though perhaps not as accurate as we'd like). The fact Josh had issues throwing in front, behind, high, low, and otherwise is evidence of his lack of precision, and the degree to which he was in front, behind, high, low, and otherwise is evidence of his issues with accuracy (though OP didn't get into that besides tracking uncatchables). I've posted this before, but here's the visual representation. Having read both the PFF and ESPN articles, I can't tell whether they're confusing accuracy and precision. It's possible they are though I doubt it. If I missed the smoking gun please feel free to point it out. So far all I've read are accusations. Specifically, I believe they were talking about percentage of off target throws - that's a(n imperfect) measure of accuracy. It would be better if someone could give average distance from the bulls eye for all these guys, or put them all on a dart board like above. Edit: also, OP didn't conclude that Allen and the other rookies were accurate. He concluded that Allen was as accurate as the other rookies. He didn't do an analysis comparing rookie accuracy to the rest of the NFL QBs.

I made this point earlier in the thread but it appears to have been lost in all the replies...I don't think your analysis debunks the accuracy claims. It debunks the claim that he throws a greater percentage of uncatchable balls than other rookies. Your analysis assumes that a ball thrown late and 100 MPH at a receiver's shoe lace is essentially the same as one thrown on time and hits the receiver in stride. Both are technically catchable. Please correct me if I'm wrong. PFF and ESPN Stats & Info did this exact same analysis and concluded that Josh threw a greater percentage of "off target throws" than anyone else in the NFL, including the rookies. It's unclear how much their version of an off target throw differs from your uncatchable throw. Anyways, as someone who did a truncated version of this (and got killed for it), you have my appreciation and sympathy. I don't agree with your methodology as I understand it, but your conclusion is interesting nonetheless, and I'm prepared to take it at face value. Nice work.

I'd feel a lot better about Allen if the team did a better job putting him in positions to succeed. There's a reason he looked better throwing to Foster and Mckenzie. Those guys could get open. Also, we need a new line.

When PFF and ESPN Stats & Info did this exact same analysis, they concluded that Josh was responsible for the greatest percentage of off target throws in the whole league. I suspect their methodology for what constitutes an accurate pass was a little different. Specifically, I don't think you can say that just because the rookie QBs hit the dart board (i.e. catchable) that means they were accurate. Some guys, like Baker, are hitting the bulls eye with regularity whereas others, like Allen, are all over the dart board. Perhaps that explains the vastly different result you got as you seemed to ignore that part on purpose. It is interesting that his rate of uncatchable balls was about the same as the other rookies though.

He scored a couple TDs this year with the option play. I bet that stays in our goal line package. He's going to get better at reading when it isn't there and throwing it. That was one of the areas I thought he improved over the last two games.

I can't stand RRP play calling sequences though it's different when you have players like Wilson, Allen, or Jackson. I can at least see the logic of trying to win using RPO or option/wildcat if you think they can't stop the run. At some point Carroll should have spread the field and let Wilson play QB. I hope we're all done with designed Allen runs. I'm fine with him scrambling for big gains when defenses given him the middle of the field. The best thing we can do for Josh is give him a line and a running game to work from using play action. Sometimes that means RRP.

I wonder how much the success of Foster (and to a lesser degree Mckenzie) will impact how the Bills view the types of receivers they target moving forward. Allen's accuracy issues are well documented, and so finding guys that can really get open becomes that much more important. The one thing that Zay, Clay, Holmes, and KB all had in common is none of them were very good at gaining separation. You probably give up some blocking, execution on wr screens, etc., going after guys like that but until Allen can learn to become more precise on his throws (i.e. leading receivers away from defenders more consistently) there are going to be issues completing balls in tight coverage.

Is he still that guy though? Brown is undersized for the position and turns 31 next year. Also, football is a team sport. I like the fact McD targets guys who buy in to the team culture first. We might not always get the most talented player but it takes 53 to make the playoffs, and so if your more talented guy is taking things off the table for the other players it doesn't always work. The worst kind of player is the former star on a big contract who thinks he's still a big time player, and distracts the team with his selfish behaviour.

I always thought it was tough to get a really good read based on his college experience (outside of him clearly being raw) but looking at it from week one to now, I'm definitely more optimistic than I was. His ability to feel the rush (post snap) is night and day from training camp. Remember the Green Bay game when he was running from ghosts? Or all the throws in the first half of the year where he was milliseconds away from getting sacked because he had no idea he was about to get hit? He's basically Aaron Rodgers now in terms of his sixth sense in the pocket. It's really incredible. I like his on field leadership too. He has a boyish positivity you sometimes see in young people who haven't been jaded yet by life that just seems infectious. He also does a good job leveraging his big plays to help fire up teammates. At the beginning of the year he was a blob of clay. Now you can see the outline of where an NFL QB might one day be molded. It's exciting.

It’s year three of the rebuild. Anyone expecting us to trade down is going to be sorely disappointed IMO. McBeane are safe for now but they know they have only so much time to turn things around. We’re one more stud play maker on the defensive line away from having a truly elite unit, and given McD’s personality and background I’d be shocked if he passed up that opportunity unless he was fairly certain he could get his guy a few picks later. If anything, I expect they’ll be more inclined to trade up in the second or third rounds to get guys they think will fit the culture on offense.

We should definitely do that. I agree there's likely inter and intraobserver variance breaking down tape - it's an excellent point. No one's perfect. It's also partly why I quoted you and pointed toward the ESPN analysis and referenced back to my own. The fact we (PFF, ESPN, me) all likely used slightly different methodology but came to such a similar result is interesting. Obv I didn't do the entire year and didn't have access to the same tech they likely did so it's not apples to apples but I think it's at least noteworthy if not highly coincidental.

I want to quickly address Hapless's point about how we don't really know on any of these throws whether the receiver ran the route correctly, and so therefore we can't say for sure that these off target throws are actually Allen's fault. I think it's very valid on timing throws where the throw is made before the receiver makes his break; however, shouldn't we still put at least some (if not most) of the blame on the QB for not adjusting once he sees the receiver cut on an 80 degree angle as appose to 70 degrees for example? This isn't a video game where you pick your play and only throw to a spot regardless of what else is happening. IRL things change and we re-calculate on the spot. Food for thought.

Did you see the ESPN Stats & Info article I posted a few pages back? They came to a similar conclusion wrt his rate of off target throws. Interestingly, the numbers were eerily similar to my 20% theory from charting those three games (though I was including bad decisions as well; It’s unclear whether ESPN did). I thought he had numerous inaccurate throws in today’s game as well. On the whole he was obviously quite good. I’m excited to see how he progresses in year two.

Overall nice game today from Allen. It had everything we’ve been discussing all year: improbable scrambles, big time runs, big time throws, lots of off target or inaccurate throws, some very questionable decision making, and a leadership quality that seemed to galvanize the team at crucial points of the game. I’m excited for what he can accomplish in year two.

This was a feel good ending to the season though I do wonder if we’ll still feel the same way come draft time.

FWIW ESPN Stats & Information claims that Allen's accuracy issues are actually getting worse which is surprising as it feels like he's been improving in that regard. Take it with a grain of salt and add it to the ever increasing pile. "Allen's rate of off-target throws, as charted by ESPN Stats & Information, has increased from 19.5 percent (seventh-most in the NFL) through Week 6 to 27.3 percent since Week 12, the league's highest rate." http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/32766/teammates-see-progress-in-josh-allen-despite-stagnant-stats

I would tend to agree with you that last year’s list doesn’t exactly pass the smell test, though I feel the same way about QBR and many other stats. That said, the adjustments they’re purporting to make would seem to be improvements (at least in theory) beyond your typical QB rating / box score style metrics which only look at a few variables, and the pbp breakdown aspect to PFF adds a different element in terms of inputs which you don’t find other places. Generally speaking, I’m not a fan of all-in-one metrics. I think they’re misunderstood and frequently poorly used. However, I’m happy to use them as part of a statistical profile alongside YPA, ANY/A, etc. I’m also happy to have someone smarter than me assign weightings to them to form a combined metric (at least terms of rankings), and then include that as part of a larger analysis that incorporates more qualitative evidence as well (i.e. coaches poll). Again, I just don’t think it’s smart to throw the analysis out just because some of us don’t feel it passes our (mostly unqualified) eye test, especially when we don’t know the whole story of how it was put together. Discounting their findings alongside other appropriately discounted findings seems more appropriate.

All fair points to which I agree, though I would assume (perhaps naively) that if PFF were to submit their analysis for peer review that they would also include their methodology so as to not be dismissed right out of the gate. Let's remember they're currently in the business of sports statistics, not academic research, and so they have a vested interest in not disclosing all aspects of their secret sauce. Also, and I don't know this but perhaps you do, are we sure they're not using SportVU cameras or other third party tech to track and break down games like the NBA? There seems to be a lot of certainty in this thread that their analysis is flawed without much to back that up (and that doesn't mean it isn't flawed obv). Again, just because they didn't disclose doesn't make their methodology wrong. Your point about subjectivity surrounding play calling and design vs. execution is fair. Perhaps they should include that disclaimer with each post. One could surmise that even if Belichick was the grader (and doing so with accurate readings from high tech cameras in each stadium) there would still be an element of the highest form of educated guessing going on. As an aside, did anyone bother to check the credentials of the grader, or are we all just assuming he's an unqualified hack who wouldn't know a drop from a poorly placed throw if it hit him in the face? Surely there's an element of football education which when combined with a little common sense would allow most qualified graders to correctly diagnose what happened the majority of the time. Either way, you're right that on this fact alone, it wouldn't meet the standard. No analysis is going to be perfect without team participation. That said, I have trouble with outright dismissing this kind of analysis as many have done (not saying you did), and for completely arbitrary reasons, in much the same way I do people using it in isolation to come to a conclusion. Is it more or less valuable than say ten former HOF QBs watching tape of Allen, recording zero quantitative findings, and giving their well trained eye test analysis of him? Hard to say. As a general rule, I try to be open to new information and consider all of it. I'm not sure that's being done here. Actually, I'm fairly certain it isn't being done here, and the underlying reason why seems fairly obvious..

This is interesting to me. On the one hand, if Foster doesn't lose it in the sun he likely adjusts his route and probably makes the catch. On the other, the ball landed about two yards inside of Foster, so claiming it was his best deep ball of the year isn't doing Allen any favors. I'm tempted to give the PFF guys some benefit of the doubt. They have arguably the best publicly available football analytics site going. It's their job to break down tape and rate players, and be as objective as possible when doing so. I would assume they're applying the same methodology across the board for all QBs, so if that Foster miss was deemed to be on Allen then the same conclusion would probably be made for other QBs in all other similar circumstances. My guess is they put that on Foster for the purposes of adjcomp%. The pass wasn't the most accurate deep ball, but it was more than good enough.

I'm more than fine with posters, including yourself, questioning what I or anyone else writes/posts, including articles from places like PFF. This is a public online forum. It's meant for this kind of discussion. The part I find frustrating is even after your point (i.e. my alleged confusion of the terms accuracy and precision) is addressed in painstaking detail, including definitions, examples, and diagrams to show you I (and many others here) do in fact have a full understanding of their meanings, you continue to pretend as though they are being confused, and you do it in a condescending and dismissive manner meant to insult rather than inform. I feel like I'm talking to a wall here. I disagree that Allen rarely misses the bulls eye by a lot (though again, he's been much better in recent weeks). The vast majority of people who are paid to write about football for a living, people who are generally not involved with the Bills in any capacity and would presumably be unlikely to be biased one way or the other, seem to agree with me. You, a strident fan who strongly supports Allen, believe that all these unrelated, seemingly objective third parties are in fact biased against him or just don't understand the terms they are using. Everyone else is an idiot but you? You are exhibiting far more tell tale signs of cognitive bias than I my friend. Perhaps you might at least point us toward the smoking gun which suggests PFF (or I FTM) is confusing the terms to the point of needing to throw out the baby with the bath water as you seem to be suggesting. Again, feel free to question whether the analysis done by PFF would meet the standards of a scientific journal. Perhaps it wouldn't, but you don't know that and neither do I. Either way, it doesn't mean their findings are completely useless, especially when you consider them alongside all the other available quantitative and qualitative evidence (most of which points to Josh being inaccurate). To be clear, I have not decided that Allen will fail, and I don't believe his accuracy issues are entirely innate and/or cannot be fixed. I don't even believe they're his biggest issue. Again, we've already seen some improvement in that regard. I read this forum weekly and I just don't find there are that many here with that alleged POV; rather, it would seem to be a small (and loud) minority that gave up right away with no hope of redemption, hellbent on convincing the rest of us. Most are now somewhere between cautiously optimistic (me) and having full on blind faith that Allen will become a star, which makes sense because this is Two Bills Drive after all.

I wonder if Kyle would have made the HOF if he'd played the first part of his career on the Pats or Steelers. Either way, he's a HOF Bill. Phenomenal career.

Thank you for saying this though I will say there is legitimately a difference between the two. Josh is neither accurate nor precise, though I think he's at least trending in the right direction wrt his accuracy issues. You can't win with posters like him. He already has his mind made up that Allen is accurate, and so no amount of evidence will convince him otherwise. It can't be that maybe Josh has issues being accurate, and so instead it must be that no one else understands the terms. Whatever it takes to confirm bias. If you put all his throws on the season on a dart board and did the same for other QBs (what PFF essentially did), Allen would both have a greater average distance from the bulls eye (accuracy) AND greater deviations from that average distance (precision). Fans get thrown off because they see him put it on the money on a difficult throw, but forget about all the times he forces the receiver to make a difficult catch by being off target or misses the target entirely (which up until the last couple of games happened a lot). So yes he's been accurate some of the time and definitely more so recently, but not when you consider all the throws on the year, and not when you compare him to the rest of the QBs.

CLeArly tHe ReaL ISsUe iS pFF dOeSn't UNdeRsTAnd tHe DiFfeRenCe bEtWEen ACcuRacY anD PRecIsIoN. In all seriousness, I think Allen is getting better at both minimizing his dart board misses and hitting closer to the bulls eye on a more consistent basis. It's his decision making and general awareness of what's happening on the field that has continued to plague him (and the team).

Hard to say you had a good day when the offense only scores three points (outside of turnovers and garbage time). That said, it does feel like Allen’s accuracy is improving. There were definitely a few where he missed the dart board altogether but for the most part it felt like the vast majority of incompletions were some combination of screw up by the receiver, bad play calling, and/or poor decision making by Josh. I really hope that last part improves substantially in year two because right now it’s still bad even for a rookie QB. He just seems unable (or unwilling) to take easy yards when they’re staring him in the face.