VW82

FWIW I think this is probably smart. We gave up a king's ransom to draft Allen, and even though there have been some giant red flags to date he clearly has talent. There has been lots of talk about the new receiver group and how that will help, particularly Beasley who should allow for more three WR formations, but the new Oline is also really well built to pass protect. Morse and Ford, in particular, are well above average pass protectors, though perhaps not as great in the running game. Singletary adds a jolt of excitement to our RB group but the main guys are well past their prime and the overall talent level at this stage isn't something we can probably lean on. Gore can pick up a blitz though. There's going to be a lot of pressure on the passing game to take a big step forward this year. McBeane appear to have designed it that way. Buffalo usually builds with their run game in mind as you need to be able to get tough yards in Dec/Jan when the weather turns. Was it smart to build our offense this way or should we have gone after road graders and a world class RB to pair with Allen, and take pressure off him using play action? Overall I like what we've done and I think the change in team building strategy is interesting. Edited the title so it doesn't sound so negative.

I like this pick more than Oliver. Ford looks like someone we can pencil in at RT for the next 5+ years.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/11/19/2019-draft-ed-oliver-attitude-character-houston-will-grier-chip-kelly-brian-kelly-trevor-lawrence "Houston DT Ed Oliver’s run-in with coach Major Applewhite wouldn’t be a big deal if Oliver didn’t already carry a bit of rep in this regard. According to scouts, Oliver has been widely seen as high-maintenance, and as a guy who’s gotten things his way a lot (his high school defensive coordinator, A.J. Blum, was hired as his position coach two years ago) since arriving on campus as the first five-star recruit in program history." He was primarily a nose tackle at Houston whereas we're going to play him as a three technique. Nose is more lateral movement. It's possible he adds positional versatility which is always a bonus. It's also possible he's not really a great fit at either position at the NFL level.

I'm still a little shocked we took Oliver. He seems like the opposite of a McD guy. A highly touted recruit with attitude problems. I always get a little nervous taking someone really high and immediately asking him to play a different position than what got him there. How often does that work? This feels like a huge gamble. I'd be more concerned if I didn't have so much faith in McD. Trust the process, I guess.

Hate this pick. Undersized nose that we’re going to ask change positions. And he has an attitude problem. Why didn’t we draft a WR and convert him to LBer? Or maybe a safety that we could have converted to a QB?? The possibilities were endless!! What a wasted opportunity.

Is Hockerson not a big reach at 9? Someone please tell me we're moving back to pick up an extra first next year.

I think if he doesn't take a big leap forward in his play this year he'll be on very thin ice. There were a lot of excuses made for him, many of them true, to absolve any blame for our horrific passing attack. This year he now has a year under his belt in the system, and will be surrounded by better players. If he struggles with accuracy and decision making again, then I hope we don't resort to calling it a sophomore slump. Personally, I think he's going to take another big step forward in his development just like he started to at the end of last season.

I'm with OP. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I worry about just how much improvement we'll really see. I fear we'll be in the same position next year trying to build a line from scratch in FA.

That practice issue cuts both ways. Yes you want guys who have experience and have already developed their game at the NFL level. OTOH it's tough to develop cohesion if you're cycling new guys in every year because you're constantly looking at vets on one year prove it deals, or contracts that are designed for the team to cut bait after a year. I had hoped we'd look at finding a top flight tackle this year in the draft with the plan of trying Dawkins instead at guard given his history. It sounds like the draft sucks this year as far as sure fire O lineman. Perhaps Dawkins just needs more stability next to him. I'm not sure we're going to get that with Spain but we'll see. In any event, It's easy to believe this current group will be an improvement over last year even if they're only together for one season.

Do we know yet what we're running? I guess based on the signings probably not zone. I have no idea what to make of Bobby Johnson given that he's mostly been an assistant...and a tight ends coach?? I suppose even if we're just competent it'll be a huge upgrade lol. Perhaps some of these guys will surprise in camp. I still wish we'd draft a stud. Good lines make such a difference.

I don't know what to think about this one. Clearly he has some name recognition, and at one point was thought to be a good player. Anyone watch enough Titans to know why his play dipped? Apparently he's not the same run blocker anymore, or so the scouts say. Obviously worth a flyer on a one year deal. Anyone see the terms yet? I guess my only real gripe with all these bargain bin signings is it's looking more and more like we're not going to invest a high draft pick in the OL this year. Last year the biggest problem was plain old lack of talent, and you don't close that gap much in FA. There's a reason why all these guys were available.

I don't know about greatest RB ever but I will say this kid in NYG looks like the greatest RB prospect ever. Barkley can do it all. He's like Marshall Faulk except he's bigger and can run you over in between the tackles. It's nuts. My favorite runner was always Barry Sanders. Human highlight reel. Jim Brown was before my time but clearly he needs to be in any GOAT discussion.

You missed the point. I’m sure that although Allen would be pissed, he’d take it in stride because he’s a gamer and is really competitive. It’s about the message that kind of trade sends to the rest of the team. Not only do we not believe in Josh anymore but we’ll give up on you too before you’ve really had the chance to prove yourself one way or the other. It’s a terrible precedent to set. That’s why I said we’re probably a year away from being able to make a trade like this and have the other leaders in the locker room back it. You need buy in from your football team to win. Right now there’s buy in when it comes to Allen. The coaching staff / front office could lose the team if they moved too early.

I think we're a season away from making this type of move. The part you haven't really considered is what message a trade like this sends not only to Allen but the rest of the team. Right now Allen is the guy that Bills are building around. There's a common goal of seeing him improve in his role and become a franchise guy. Trading for Rosen would shake the faith. You bring up Steve Walsh but that was 30 years ago. People are different now. Smarter. These kids see through the BS. If you send the message that you're giving up on one of your main building blocks before he's proven unworthy you risk cracking the foundation of the culture if you're trying to build.

Love seeing Foster's name near the top of the yards per target list. That's legit. I still feel like he's going to get stuck competing with Brown for a starting spot, and given we just guaranteed Brown a bunch of money he's likely going to get it. Speed is great, and both those guys have it in spades, but I can see McD opting to go with someone that has a little more size and toughness at the other WR2 spot. I think Zay will be the favorite and guys like Duke will push him. It'll add another dimension to have someone who can block for Beasley on WR screens or pick plays. Foster will get his share of snaps though. He had nice chemistry with Josh, and that counts for a lot.

It’s all damage control for his brand at this point. Apparently AB doesn’t think he can live with people knowing we wouldn’t meet his contract demands. How insecure do you really have to be to take it to this length though? I almost feel bad for the guy. Maybe he should see a therapist or something.

Good interview. I'm kind of surprised that Beane doesn't just come out and say that the only reason AB is going off on Buffalo is because we wouldn't pay him. He goes right to the edge and lets the listener connect the dots, except no one in mainstream media appears to have connected the dots. Maybe Beane just doesn't want a circus. Also, yes the decision making was a problem but the accuracy was a problem too. It's funny the team continues to push back on that. You'd think they'd want to address the issue head on rather than pretend it doesn't exist. Maybe they are privately.

Ugh. This is probably right. On the plus side we've already endured his hard to watch transition into the NFL, so this year should be a lot more fun.

Further to Doc's comment, if you read between the lines of what Rosenhaus and Beane said it's clear we got close to Steelers asking price (to trade) but balked at Brown's (for a new contract), and walked away. What made it even more obvious was Brown's initial public reaction and continued reaction to the whole thing. As soon as the story was leaked that we might trade for him, he immediately went on the offensive saying he'd never play here, even though the deal was long since dead per Beane and Rosenhaus. Brown for some reason is still killing us on social media. Why? Because his ego is hurt. You think he even thought about Buffalo before all of this? No, but we wouldn't meet his contract demands and he doesn't want the world to think we said no to him, so like a spurned beauty queen he goes out of his way to trash us now to make himself look better. The other big clue is Brown started trashing Buffalo before his deal was done with Oakland. So he's intentionally eliminating one of the only interested teams with both a need and cap space to meet his demands that Rosenhaus could use to leverage Oakland?? Not a chance. He trashed us because everyone knew we killed the deal, so all that was left was to save face.

I’m not surprised. He likely views himself as the best non-QB in football, and we spurned him. Now he’s super salty and his ego can’t handle it. He’s like the really pretty girl who’s never been dumped that finally gets rejected by some guy who sees her for what she really is, a hot mess. How does that girl usually react? By loudly admonishing the guy and twisting the story to try and make herself look/feel better. Except, it only serves to do the opposite. AB looks so insecure and weak right now.

Look I'm not going to say I know with 100% certainty that these guys are using software to help calculate an exact distance of the football from the receiver's stomach, but I think it's a perfectly reasonable assumption that they are. You don't need AI to do that. If you know the measurements of surrounding people/objects, you can write a software program which calculates things like distance and accuracy pretty easily. Just because PFF decided to superimpose a receiver in the background in place of a dart board does not mean it's not a dart board, or that they're not calculating exact distance from the bulls eye. Look at the rings. There are four of them: the two inner ones on the body of the receiver and the two outer ones. Yes, they're also grouping location / ball placement data at various sections/rings of the dart board so we can get an idea of where the makes and misses are happening in relation to other QBs. So what? That's just more good info. It's a graphic -- it's meant to be illustrative and easy to understand, not provide an all encompassing picture of every part of their analysis. I highly doubt their "advanced pass location data" is actually just a "highly subjective measure of ball placement" based solely on one person's eye test, like what you did. Look, I get you're trying to defend your work, and again, thank you for putting the time and effort into it. But this isn't a case where somebody built an advanced box score stat to give a subjective measure of accuracy or someone like Jay Glazer or Aikman watched a few games and deemed Allen unworthy. PFF did exactly what you did, only they appear to have put a lot more professional resources into their work. BTW so did Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN Stats & Info, and they all came to the same conclusion: Josh was the least accurate NFL QB last year. I think a reasonable person would look at your work and take it into consideration, but would probably put a lot less weight on it compared with these other sites whose entire business model revolves around being the best at this type of thing. You've gone way out of your way to prove that Allen, your favorite player on your favorite team, isn't any less accurate than the other rookie QBs. The more you continue pressing this issue and shooting down any naysayers, the more I question just how unbiased you really were with your eye test method. Just sayin.

I reiterate my position from earlier in the thread. I applaud the effort by OP, but even if you assume away any pre-conceived bias, he/she isn't working with the same technology that PFF and ESPN / Elias Sports Bureau is using. Those guys all said Allen was the least accurate QB in the NFL last year based on a dart board approach, not completion percentage. ESB has been the leading sports stats provider for over 100 years. If you're arguing against them, you have a serious uphill battle ahead of you. All of that said, it sure felt to me like Josh improved post injury. He still has accuracy issues, and precision issues. I like that we went after WRs in FA who can get open. If they're open, Allen doesn't have to worry as much about precision. Just as important, it seemed like his decision making and feel for the game improved. There's a lot to be excited about. On to year two.

Because neither of them have the all around games you'd like to see from a number one guy. It can't just be about running verticals. You need guys out there who can get open underneath or on intermediate routes, receivers who are effective blockers for WR screens or pick plays, etc. If you just do the same things over and over again the defense will sit on what you do well and take it away. Having said that, it's possible we do start both though I feel like that will say more about what we don't have in Duke, Zay, etc., than anything else. Agree about Beasley and Shady being good outlets. Haven't seen much of Kroft yet so I'll reserve judgement. Let's hope Josh comes into camp having fixed his issues with short throws.

Do you think we'll play Brown and Foster much together? I kind of think Foster winds up being Brown's back up, and we see someone like Zay or Duke opposite him. I love the Beasley addition, and hopefully he'll loosen things up for us. It'll be nice to see a receiver group that can consistently get open for a change so Josh isn't leading the league in snap to throw time again. I'm going to have to see the run game working to believe it though. Our biggest threat last year was Josh scrambling. Teams will likely spy him in the box which adds an extra defender on run plays until we can prove that we can beat them in other ways. We should have a much better shot at doing that this year though. Let's see what we do at the draft.

PFF is the arguably the most popular independent NFL grading service out there. Their entire business rests on the fact that they're doing at least a serviceable job grading players, if not a good to very good job. It begs the question, why would we assume they would risk their entire business on hiring people who aren't qualified? Yes, our OL personnel sucked last year. I wasn't suggesting that going from Tyrod to Josh was a bigger impediment to good line play than the loss of Richie and EWood. But it did make an impact IMO. I don't think Foster and Brown will have much of an impact on our run game. We had Foster last year and couldn't run the ball. Perhaps Antonio Brown would have had that effect. I expect we'll try to be a play action team again, which means we'll use the run game to set up the pass, not vice versa. We're going to have to prove that we can consistently beat people deep before they stop putting safeties in the box.