All the Cincy is better contrarians seem to forget that they still have Eli Apple running around out there as a starting cornerback. That team is very far from perfect.
267 yards allowed through the air in the last three games, and it's been going up. That's about 27th in the league the past 3-4 weeks. Buffalo meanwhile has remained completely middle of the pack even during their worst weeks - 13th in passing yards allowed the past 3 games with an "exploitable" Tre White among many other serious issues.
Cincinnati has the best WR room in the league. They also have a very bad pass defense despite some patchwork flashes earlier this season. I still don't think they're KC-BUF tier. If Mark Andrews can get healthy he might hang 3 TD on them.