JGMcD2

This is so true! My roommate through all of college is a Bills fan as well (which was helpful during 3 painful years of the Pats making it to two Super Bowls). We said it every year “wait until they start losing, nobody will show up and nobody will care.” Heck, half the Patriots “fans” I know barely pay attention now. They’re not invested, they just like talking a big game when it’s easy to do so.

I’m currently sitting in the airport waiting to board my flight to Boston. I went to school in Massachusetts so going with a bunch of college buddies... first time we’ve all been together since graduation. Really pumped up about this weekend for numerous reasons. I’m actually EXCITED to play the Patriots... I used to dread it during school. Pats fans are just brutal but I’m finally CONFIDENT - even though we’re going into Gillette. This will be my 5th game this year (WSH, CLE, MIA, PIT) and I have to say the vibe around the team and fan base is so different this year. 2017 was the first playoff game I’ve ever seen (being 2 in 1999 I didn’t get to watch) and while I could feel excitement in the atmosphere of Rochester/Buffalo the week leading up to Jacksonville... it didn’t quite feel like this. Being there when we clinched was electric. I’m walking around the airport in a Bills jersey getting “Go Bills” or having people chat me up about the game, even the guys at TSA were excited about the Bills. I’m super proud of growing up in WNY, I guess it’s just nice to see WNYers proud of their team. It gives me a little glimpse into what the 1990s must’ve been like and makes me think of all the stories my parents told me about the Bills growing up. My friends from Massachusetts don’t have an appreciation for this feeling, if one team is doing poorly they just flip their allegiance to one of their other teams inevitably doin well. I’m so glad I’m a Bills fan and stuck through because this feeling is great. That was a lot of early morning airport rambling ... GO BILLS!

Yes, they do. No, not really. I was on there today for a bit. Tre White was rated 87 overall. Micah Hyde was 88 overall. Jordan Poyer 85 overall. Milano and Edmunds were both 79. Lorenzo Alexander was 83 overall. Ed Oliver was 80. I believe Phillips and Star we’re like 76. Josh was 76. Singletary 80. Brown was like 85 and Beasley was 83. For reference on Tre White (87) ... Stephon Gilmore was rated 98 overall. The team itself was roughly 85 overall I believe the defense had the same rating at 85, while the offense was around a 76.

Thanks for this... some interesting pieces. Stats don’t tell the whole story BUT it is nice to see the positive side of Josh’s stats. I’m tired of seeing completion% with no context with people screaming he’s no good.

Potentially... although I compared all of them to current deals for players at their position. The RFA and ERFA are based on the tender amounts as well.

I’m not. Future 1st is discounted one round, all future picks are, so that can’t be the case. Using the Bears (no 1st rounder) as an example trying to get back into the 1st to take a QB, say Jalen Hurts. Value of our picks that I listed would be 832.6 (1,4,6,6). Value of their picks (using the 1st pick in round 2 as value for their 2021 1st) 1,037 (1,4, 2021 1st). Highly doubtful the Bears have the #1 pick next year so I’ll use a mid-round 2nd rounder for the future 1st value. Value comes out to 926. Is it really that unreasonable to believe that Chicago would make that deal? Excess value is roughly that of a late 3rd/early 4th.

Philadelphia trade their 1st (32) and 4th (132) to the Ravens for 2nd (52) , 4th (125) and 2019 2nd in the Lamar Jackson deal time move back 20 spots in 2018. Green Bay traded their 1st (29) to Cleveland for their 2nd (33) and 4th (103) in 2017. LA Rams traded their 1st (31) and 6th (203) to the Falcons for their 2nd (45) and 3rd (79) in 2019. Maybe we’d have to kick in our 4th instead... I didn’t do in-depth research before my post and just went off the top of my head on what the value would be roughly... wasn’t too far off

We’re not touching the top 5 guys where we will be picking anyway. Moving back 5 - 10 spots really isn’t going to hinder your chances at getting an impact player. We’re already at the back end of the first round, the separation between end of the first round and beginning of the second round is less compared to that of beginning of the first and end of the first.

Why trade back? There is a ton of WR talent, so much so that folks are claiming there are 10+ guys that have first round talent, and we’re picking at the back of the first round so moving back to the second round isn’t a huge deal. Picking up a future first allows us to add an impact player next year for cheap... it will become important because we’re not going to be able to resign all of our players forever... going to need to replace through the draft once we starting handing extensions out to core guys like Tre, Poyer, Milano, Edmonds, Allen, Dawkins etc. Replace players like Lotulelei, Hughes, Murphy, maybe Hyde (I think he gets a huge pay day from someone else or at least has a chance to).

I would love to see us trade out of the first round and pick up a 2021 1st rounder. Something like this? Bills: 1st + 5th + 6th + 6th for 2nd, 4th + 2021 1st We'd have the following picks and still room to maneuver up and down the board. 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th 4th 5th 6th Also keep an eye out for Denzel Mims... I have a weird hunch he is the WR that we end up with..

Again, if you had just read my post, I wasn't suggesting being cap conservative. Those deals for White and company wouldn't go into effect until 2021... money was being spent... it was just future money. Leaving flexibility for the immediate future to supplement what we have in place.

The only deals I laid out were for our players... I said that I believe we could reasonably TARGET those players. Never suggested what type of deals we would sign them to. It wasn't a list of all the players we would sign nor was it a comprehensive list of all the players we would target. So. The deals I listed out above would cost us roughly $24 million and then about $10M for draft picks that would leave us with $55 million available to spend in 2020. Phillips and Lawson would be the only MAJOR deals that would impact our 2020 cap situation. The rest would take effect in 2021 seeing that White, Milano, Dawkins and Poyer are all controlled through 2020. Here are some players I reasonably believe that we could target this offseason; Matt Breida, RB (RFA) Geronimo Allison, WR (UFA) Demarcus Robinson, WR (UFA) Kendrick Bourne, WR (RFA) Vic Beasley, DE (UFA) Jadeveon Clowney, DE (UFA) Deone Bucannon, LB (UFA) De'Vondre Campbell, LB (UFA) James Bradberry, CB (UFA) Trae Waynes, CB (UFA) I also never said it would be ridiculous to sign him. I said the following "If you want Clowney and players of that caliber in FA you better be prepared to shell out 5-6 years.... which means big money in future seasons... which means less flexibility to extend the young core. "

Now you're just contradicting yourself and/or proving that you didn't read my post while just decided to tell me that I was wrong. I literally said that we would resign our own guys and then spread the rest of the money around in free agency LIKE WE DID LAST YEAR. My projections after resigning Phillips and Lawson + the other 6-7 guys that were RFA + our draft picks left us with $55M to spend this offseason. Nowhere did I suggest we would sit on the $55M. You're also just continuing to prove my points lol. Yes, it is about windows of contention so we're going to be careful in free agency and spread it around. We don't want to look like the Falcons, Panthers or Broncos... yet you cited the Eagles and Rams as teams we should emulate... yet they went from loaded Super Bowl contenders to overpaid rosters one year to the next.

I believe he is a fullback. Not sure we’d be interested.

It’s not a sustainable model and now they’re trending downward... they’re going to have to go through the process we just went through because it’s not sustainable. I never ever suggested that we’d avoid free agency, I suggested that we would approach free agency much like we did this year - avoiding splashy names and big spending. Adding an influx of talent is different than breaking the bank for a “superstar free agent” which you suggested we do instead of spreading it around. You can go to any sports, those big money deals in free agency rarely work out... players don’t survive the life of the contract and end up getting cut or eating cap space/payroll that could be used to extend younger core players. Let’s look at 2018 and 2019 free agency and the biggest non-QB contracts handed out. 2018: Trumaine Johnson 5/$72.5M Andrew Norwell 5/$66.5M Nate Solder 4/$62M Malcolm Butler 5/$61.125M Star Lotulelei 5/$50M Sammy Watkins 3/$48M 2019: Tre Flowers 5/$90M CJ Moseley 5/$85M Landon Collins 6/$85M Anthony Barr 5/$67.5M Za’Darius Smith 4/$66M Trenton Brown 4/$66M Earl Thomas 4/$55M

Then you’re going to be sorely disappointed. We can’t go out and throw around big money AND extend our core. It won’t work. If you want Clowney and players of that caliber in FA you better be prepared to shell out 5-6 years.... which means big money in future seasons... which means less flexibility to extend the young core. You legitimately cannot do both, the evidence is that both teams are in salary cap hell because of it. We just got out of salary cap hell and I promise you Beane’s plan is not to set himself up for that again. Guys like Hyde, Poyer, White, Milano, Edmunds, Wallace, Brown, McKenzie, Singletary, Phillips were all value picks ups or draft picks and they’re playing key roles on a contending team. None of them were very highly regarded before coming here... our approach isn’t blowing out for a big name “impact player” it rarely ever works.

I don't expect us to target any of the big fish in free agency. We are going to take a similar approach as we did this season... spread it around. I have a feeling that there will be an emphasis on hammering out contract extensions for OUR core players this offseason - that is where the big money will go. It will primarily be future money. I'm going to take some numbers off Spotrac here to give an idea... it won't be anything exact, instead more of a rough outline of what I expect. Tre White 5 yrs, $70,579,070 Avg. Salary: $14,115,814 Matt Milano 4 yrs, $53,325,792 Avg. Salary: $13,331,448 Dion Dawkins 5 yrs, $38,500,000 Avg. Salary: $7,700,000 Jordan Poyer 4 yrs, $27,000,000 Avg. Salary: $6,750,000 I also expect the following Buffalo Bills free agents to be retained: Jordan Phillips 3 year, $30,000,000 Avg. Salary: $10,000,000 Shaq Lawson 3 yrs, $22,500,000 Avg. Salary: $7,500,000 Senorise Perry (UFA) ~ $800,000 Dean Marlowe (RFA) ~ $1,900,000 Isaiah McKenzie (RFA) ~ $1,900,000 Jason Croom (ERFA) ~ $585,000 Levi Wallace (ERFA) ~ $660,000 Robert Foster (ERFA) ~ $660,000 After resigning the eight free agents listed above, our offseason roster would sit at 50/90 players. I have reason to believe we would sign the eleven players on our practice squad to futures deals, meaning our roster would sit at 61/90 players. Factor in our nine draft picks (although I believe we will only make 5-6 picks) our roster BEFORE signing any free agents outside of our own organization is set to include 70/90 players allowed in the preseason. The deals I listed out above would cost us roughly $24 million and then about $10M for draft picks that would leave us with $55 million available to spend in 2020. Phillips and Lawson would be the only MAJOR deals that would impact our 2020 cap situation. The rest would take effect in 2021 seeing that White, Milano, Dawkins and Poyer are all controlled through 2020. Here are some players I reasonably believe that we could target this offseason; Matt Breida, RB (RFA) Geronimo Allison, WR (UFA) Demarcus Robinson, WR (UFA) Kendrick Bourne, WR (RFA) Vic Beasley, DE (UFA) Jadeveon Clowney, DE (UFA) Deone Bucannon, LB (UFA) De'Vondre Campbell, LB (UFA) James Bradberry, CB (UFA) Trae Waynes, CB (UFA)

I would be upset to see this happen as I think Dan Morgan does a fantastic job. To my point above on us being able to procure high end administrative talent... Dan was hired to replace Brian Gaine after he left to become the GM of the Texans two years ago. Due to Bill O’Brien getting his desired control, Gaine was let go, and we scooped him back up. If Dan were to leave... we have his replacement in-house. Not only does he have experience in the role but he ran the show himself now too in Houston.

I know Ron Rivera is being discussed in a few different places but I came across this and found it interesting. Some will probably say “yeah, we know they’re close. ‘The Carolina Connection’ DUH!” but I wanted to share. Jourdan Rodrigue wrote an article on The Athletic about the firing of Ron Rivera. She talks a lot about how he values people and cultivating relationships... so much so that he decided to move his office from upstairs to a much less impressive space down near the locker room shortly after he became the head coach in Carolina. She then touches on WHAT he keeps in his office and the fact that he’s a “collector of objects” but solely because of the people they were attached to. The first item she mentions is “ former intern Brandon Beane’s building access card pinned to the large bulletin board over his desk.“ I thought this was cool. There’s obviously so much respect between the parties. It is too hard to speculate and I think Ron Rivera would be a solid HC choice for many teams but this little nugget tells me he would actually be an option here on McDermott’s staff. It seems that everyone Beane and McDermott work with have a high level of appreciation for them. Small things like these continue to solidify in my mind that we have the right staff. This respect across the league gives me the feeling that we will continue to be able to recruit rising stars on the coaching and administrative side for as long as Beane and McDermott are here (Gil Brandt tweeted on Thanksgiving about how we have some of the best front office and coaching personnel in the league - specifically highlighting Dan Morgan, Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll). I’m going to shut up now... but didn’t know how many people would’ve come across that article and figured it would be an interesting point of discussion.

I was in the Dominican Republic for two months at the beginning of the season for work. I ended up downloading a VPN so I could watch games. CBS and Fox were both televised in the hotel so I was able to watch those games but to watch the Bills I needed to use my laptop. I used NordVPN and purchased it through TopCashback. I believe it was around $150 for 3 years and with TopCashback I got $100 of that back. Really not a bad deal and you can use it on up to 6 devices. I know it’s not Mexico BUT that was my experience in a foreign country and as much help as I can offer!

Yes, Cover1. Thanks for catching that... I knew I screwed something up there! haha

Thanks! I’m the idiot though... it was a bad analogy. I’m aware of how it all works... I work with players and have an office in the locker room during the season. The team can deny credentials or revoke them... I’m pretty sure people were all up in arms about the Bills failing to give the guy from Cover 2 a press pass. Privilege...

Except it is a privilege to have access to the team. Whether it be in the locker room, practice, on the field. It can be revoked at any time... therefore it is indeed a privilege. Let me change my analogy to another entertainment business... are reporters given access to the filming of movies? Behind the scenes? Are they allowed to go out and tell the general public everything that happens in the movie and spoil the details before the movie is released?

He did go off on him.... but this was not the first instance of Fairburn overstepping his boundaries. There are consequences for your actions. Folks in media are constantly worried about their next story, breaking news, etc. that they don’t really think of the bigger picture. Believe me. Tons of friends who work in the news, an ex-girlfriend, and people I’ve interacted with professionally. All they’re worried about is content and a deadline. They forget about what they wrote shortly after they publish it.

I don’t know guys... I understand reporters are supposed to report but there are unwritten rules for how you’re supposed to handle things when interacting with players and in a locker room. I work in professional sports and spend a lot of time in the locker room. Reporters come in all the time... that’s ok. The good ones are pleasant and ask a lot of questions... and typically ask permission or for an ok to discuss certain topics. There is a veil over these areas for a reason... what goes on in there tends to be important. You have to build up respect and earn the trust of the staff and players. Just like anything in life... but we live in a society today that doesn’t place value on those things. It seems to me Fairburn messed up twice. The bulletin board material should not have been discussed... I know journalists who come into the locker room and there are notices and information posted everywhere... THEY ASK before they say anything about it. Otherwise you’re going to get singled out real quick. I’ve seen players and staff change their mood very quickly when someone oversteps their boundaries. This is the Bills place of work... the media has the PRIVILEGE of being able to observe. You don’t see reporters walking around an office complex and sitting in on shareholders meetings reporting on a Fortune 500 companies upcoming plans, financials, hires/fires.