RocCityRoller

My post wasn't so much to change your mind, but to offer an example of how things can turn out right with a QB like this. Like I said, Allen isn't my first pick (Darnlold/Mayfield/Rudolph). I would have gone Rudolph and a team vs Allen, because I am conservative but we went Allen, so I looked long and hard at best case scenarios. They all added up to Favre and Allen as comparables. It took Favre 4 years to become the Brett Favre we remember. I think my point is give Josh Allen 3-4 years to become Josh Allen. He has generational physical tools, let the game slow down for him and he will be very, very special. thanks for the reply

Thank you for meeting me half way. I love it! I think the more professional approach of football to the party days helps offset the change in the game. Stints like Zay or Cyrus still happen, but it's news now vs the past when it was binge or coke (irvin etc) to become news. Can you imagine the 1990s stars with social media? It would be a mess. I am happy to be 40-45 now. I remember 1980's an 1990's football. Bad teams tried to run the ball because they sucked at throwing it. How has this changed? Look at Dallas. 2 years ago Prescott was great, Elliot did his thing as did Witten and Bryant. W/O Witten and Bryant D will depend on Eliott more and more, and Prescott will struggle. Goff struggled w/o Watkins/Woods/Culp and the HC/OC change. I think that some how, some way the Bills got a very very special talent at QB (and MLB) this year. We owe it to them to be supportive and walk them through the roster rebuild. This feels like 198x and it is happening.Buffalo in the late 1980's was a boring D first team. After the 1988 AFC Championship loss it clicked and the Bills went on a run when they changed the offense. My fear is that we don't live up to our stars now. Eichel and Allen are stars, buy they need support and systems that suit them.

Hell yes, unless it's Josh Allen.... and maybe Edmunds... this may be a very special draft. How can one argue when even the lowly Sabres got the first pick? My fear is that the Sabres get Eichel, and the Bills get Allen and then f%&$ both of them up. It's time for us to win. Build both teams properly. Buffalo has the talents now to build around.

The term generational talent is thrown around too much these days. Allen is a generational (20 yr) talent. He is a curve pusher, and we got him. We need to be patient.

Recall I was looking for a best case scenario, a positive. Quite simply no one else in the last 20 years has made that jump. The skills, potential, issues, plusses and minuses measure up statistically. And though you may not recall football 20 or even 30 years ago, many people do. It's not as far away as you think. There is a theory that a sub 58.5% (or 60% net) completion percentage in the final year of college correlates to a QB having a positive W-L record in the NFL. http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2011/04/17/by-the-numbers-first-round-quarterbacks-dominate-nfl-landscape/ https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/65zs0w/oc_why_585_is_the_magic_number_for_qbs_in_the_nfl/ The last two QBs to have a positive +/_ win total were David Garrard (2002) and Brett Favre (1991), and only Favre in the last 30 yrs reached a Super Bowl. So excuse me for the history. This was the crux of me being against Josh Allen as the pick. The odds were against him ever reaching a SB. Believe it or not Mason Rudlolph has much higher odds (roughly 1-10%). The potential for a SB QB under these conditions drops this to 3 standard deviations from the mean since Garrard never made a SB. In short it would take a true generational talent (2% or every 30-40 yrs) to break the barrier. McBean believes Josh Allen to be the barrier breaker, because he has Brett Favre like skills. He has the arm, the release and the smarts (37 Wonderlic) to do it. If you count on stats only, Allen will be a failure. However the NFL is statistically halfway due for the next 'Brett Favre'. A brash young man with a 58.5 or less completion % in college, that just knows how to play football. And we may have got him. McBean went for the 1-2%, and I applaud them for it. You can believe or not, but Allen has all the traits and more of the previous curve pusher.

Who likes Light de Beer? No One! PS thanks to all. We are having a good conversation about the O-line. It's not as bleak as it looked, but I think we agree OT is an area of need. Plenty of solid options at C/G

Oh yeah let's go further my Futureama/ Matrix inspired Hypno-toad.... I'm onto you 58.5% is the completion percentage that has a 98% confidence rate in determining the failure rate among QBs. IE if a QB is under 58.5% completion rate, there is a 98%+ chance the QB will be a bust. But 585 is the area code of Rochester, NY! Rochester is the second largest supporter of the Bills and attendance at games. So we have a double negative of 585 and 716 in play. That is a positive! McBeane is a numerology witch! The last QB to beat the 58.5% mark was...... Brett Favre. Brett Favre was a farming family country boy, with a big arm, who was agile, a gunslinger and threw the most INTs in NFL history, but also kept the Pack (the other small market team) in games and won a SB. He also used social media to send inappropriate texts! Just like the media is trying to show now with Allen! It's spooky Look here: Final college year stat comparison: QB A - 150 CMP/ 275 ATT - 54.5%, 1572 YARDS, 5.7 Y/A, 7 TD, 6 INT 106.6 RATE QB B - 152 CMP/ 270 ATT - 56.3%, 1812 YARDS, 6.7 Y/A, 16 TD, 6 INT 127.8 RATE QB A is Brett Favre, QB B is Josh Allen How can you argue these facts my friend?!

Sal stole my thunder and the Wyoming flag is a Buffalo as has been pointed out It's the Football Matrix /Dev/Null!

Surprised Roc Thomas and Akrum Wadley (swooon) were not brought in.... Maybe Gilislee can be had for a 6-7th round pick since the Pats drafted Sony Michel?

Don't disagree with you at all. There is every chance Teller becomes a day one starter at LG. I'm also not sure McBeane moves a 4 year starter from a playoff calibre team from C. Groy has become an essential cog in the O-line with the departures. The C/G situation looks to be ok. I agree T is a mess. I don't like Dawkins as a full time LT (trading Glenn was dumb), and Mills at RT is a rash we can't seem to shake unless Newhouse steps up. Another real OT is needed. This is also why I didn't like the 4th and 5th round. OT's Richardson and Jones were there for the taking. If the Bills went Richardson in the 4th that is an immediate upgrade on Mills or at least depth. Grab Taron Johnson in the 5th (trade the 7th to move up) or resign CB L Johnson to be the nickle and then get OG Teller. It always amazes me how much Defensive coaches undervalue O-Line since that is what they scheme around.

Streater and Holmes are both here AFAIK Take a look at the thread about the post draft O-line I created. A lot of 4-7 and UDFA players. I'd like Buffalo to add more Blue Chip players here in the coming years, but I'm not sure it's uncommon.

He's so light at 260-270 though....

I'm no conspiracy nut, or even a numerologist, but my friend was first to point it out to me that the Bills first round went pick 7 and pick 16 for 7-16. That just so happens to be the Buffalo area code 716. This may be the first time that has happened in Bills history. McBean swung for the fences for our QB on lucky #7 and also doubled down at 16 on our potential 'QB of the defense' at 16. Let hope this is a positive omen.

They really are nice aren't they? Mostly FBS players, all seniors, most drafted and Allen shined. He was the best North QB out there.

Thank you. Tip of the hat to you as well. I had to make the Luck Troll post as an initial 'splash' on OBD LOL! Yet we have a rookie with one of the 5 best arms in the NFL and Luck is not even throwing footballs. I wanted to try to figure out why McBean went Allen. The best I can tell, they see a little Brett Favre in Allen. If those are the fences this team is swinging for I am on board. But it will take 2-3 years to come to fruition. We will have to let Allen take his lumps and grow. The comps are there though. Stats, background, make up. It's all there.

So, the Bills went D heavy this draft, but did get a potential franchise QB in Allen, and have McCarron/ Peterman to hold the fort until he is ready. We lost 60% of our starters this off season due to trades and retirements. It's a big rebuild on the O-line. Let's look at our current depth (UDFA included) to see where the Bills stand now on O-line Center: Russell Bodine 6-3 308 25 5th North Carolina (4th RD Bengals, 4 yr starter for the Bengals) Ryan Groy 6-5 320 27 5th Wisconsin (UDFA 2014 Bears, spelled Eric wood for multiple games in 2016, considered C/G) Adam Redmond 6-6 300 24 1st Harvard (UDFA 2016 Indy, on and off practice squad before Bills signed him, considered C/G) Guards: Vlad Ducasse 6-5 329 30 9th UMASS (2nd NYJ, played LT in college, journeyman, solid G per PFF) John Miller 6-3 315 24 4th Louisville (3rd BUF, named among PFF most improved players between 2015 and 2016, didn't fit zone scheme 2017) Wyatt Teller 6-4 314 23 R VA Tech (5th BUF, All ACC) Ike Boettger 6-6 310 xx R Iowa (UDFA BUF, Played both G/T, many injuries, never found a position, 5.39 grade) Tackles: Dion Dawkins 6-5 320 24 2nd Temple (2nd BUF, originally considered a LG or RT prospect, played LT in 11 games out of need in 2017 and held his own) Jordan Mills 6-5 316 27 6th LA Tech (5th CHI, journeyman with DAL and DET before landing with Bills. RT since 2015) Connor McDermott 6-8 320 25 2nd UCLA (6th NE, 2nd team PAC12 at LT, 4.98 grade) Marshall Newhouse 6-4 330 29 8th TCU (5th GB, starting LT in 2011-2012 when Pack went 15-1 and 11-5, Journeyman until 2017 Raiders started 14 games at RT) De'Ondre Wesley 6-6 331 25 3 BYU (UDFA BAL, 0 starts) Gerhard de Beer 6-7 262 xx R AZ (UDFA BUF, 4.8 grade) Mo Porter 6-6 310 xx R Baylor (UDFA BUF, LT in senior season, ungraded) I would build the line as LT - Dawkins/Newhouse LG - Groy/Teller C - Bodine/ Groy RG - Miller/ Ducasse RT- Mills/ Newhouse Key Reserves: C/G - Groy, Redmond G - Ducasse T -Newhouse PS - McDermott and Porter I think O-line was missed during the 4th and early 5th rounds, I hope those picks work out. What would you do?

I like the way you think!

Funny we got Wyatt Teller later Should be good training camp battles! I saw someone called him 'just average' I'm sorry, when did any NT in a 3-4 get 100 tackles in a year? That is insane production by a DT.

Hopefully getting away from a zone scheme will allow him to be the 2nd year improved mauler he was intended to be. I think he is often forgotten.

True enough Sterling was a WR, who had a huge catch radius. He was a big bodied WR. I misspoke there, what about the rest?

my 2nd least favorite pick this draft at a gut level. Who? What is his position? What does he bring? Doesn't seem to have a position. Then I thought about B Scott, and Coy Wire and Kam Chancellor. Versatile DB/LB hybrids. Then I watched highlights, now I get it. This is a chess piece that loves to knock people's blocks off. He can be a 3rd DB in a dime, or a 2nd LB in a nickel with Edmunds. A luxury pick if you will. Haven't seen that in a while. Last big hitters among the DBs I recall were S Leanord Johnson, Winfield, Whitner and A Will. Has the versatility of Wire/Scott with the nasty of Johnson and such. Cool to bring the nasty. With Star/Phillips/Edmunds/Poyer and Neal the middle will be a place other teams will not want to test. I think that 3 game stretch centered with New Orleans gave McDermott nightmares. He wanted hitters and to stiffen the middle of the defense. I get the pick now. Specialist and a nasty attitude chess piece. I like it. Every good Defense needs a few technicians, a few psychopaths and a few filler guys in the right positions. This is a Psycopath, so is Poyer, while Hyde and Tre are technicians. I get it.

The only thing that concerns me with this pick is his age. A Okoyeye bottomed out quickly with Houston, but was a DL and got beat on more. Edmunds has everything else. I hope they pair Phillips with Kyle Williams, and Edmunds with Alexander as mentors. Edmunds can be a guy who changes how MLB is played in the league if he reaches his potential. Can't wait to see him and Tre White irritate the heck out of Gronk.

I've seen multiple sources indicate that the Bills had a trade in line with Denver at 5. The trade would have included #22 and a second round pick. Bean has said whether they played in a dome or not they would want Allen. When Cleveland passed on Chubb it meant Denver would not move, even with a sweetened deal of both 2'nds. They wanted to grab Chubb and pair him with Von Miller, who can blame them? Because Cleveland took S Denzel Ward, Bradley Chubb was available. It was well noted Indy did not want to move out of the top 10. Neither Arizona or Buffalo, or even New England could offer that. Both Arizona and Buffalo raced to get the pick with Tampa. Buffalo had more capital than Arizona did. Buffalo got the trade. They took Allen over Rosen. They had the choice. And they were able to get Edmunds, one of the top 3 LBs available, by keeping the second 1st round pick. Allen's comparables are closest to Brett Favre for upside. Yes Buffalo got who they wanted, and got Edmunds in as a bonus because of Cleveland being Cleveland. This first round may go on to be legendary. Allen will take 2-3 years to develop, so will Edmunds. 3 years from now we could have baby Favre and a game changing MLB entering his 2nd year from the same round. We have to give this the long view. The 5-11's to 8-8 years will allow this team to continue to build. Count me in for the long haul. I like our chances a few years from now.

This kid's comparables, background, play style, arm, stats, college competition, upside, downside, strengths and weaknesses are Brett Favre. We have a potential Brett Favre. No QB has been as successful under the magic 58.5% Sr. completion % since Favre. If anyone can do it I think it's Allen. Look at his Senior Bowl film. Escapability, poise, steps up into the pocket, runs for fist downs, arm strength and even touch. The stage was not too big for him. Be patient with this kid. Year 3 and it clicks, and we have baby Favre, and a 22 yr old Edmunds just entering his prime and changing the way MLB is played. The McBeane plan is over many years (2-3) but it can be game changing. Give this kid a chance.

So was Brett Favre Final college year stat comparison: QB A - 150 CMP/ 275 ATT - 54.5%, 1572 YARDS, 5.7 Y/A, 7 TD, 6 INT 106.6 RATE QB B - 152 CMP/ 270 ATT - 56.3%, 1812 YARDS, 6.7 Y/A, 16 TD, 6 INT 127.8 RATE QB A is Brett Favre, QB B is Josh Allen Can't you hope for one minute we landed the next Brett Favre? See bottom of page. https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/205086-rd1-pick-7-josh-allen-qb-wyoming/?page=63 PS take a shot on Proehl. His dad was a witch. Never put up big numbers, but made soul crushing catches like Danny Amendola. I'm sure the connection between Proehl and McDermott helped. But at round 7 why not?