Rew

You aren't including the Dolphins and KC schedules in your view. The dolphins have a much harder schedule than the chiefs. Also, we play the dolphins and the broncos do not play the chiefs. Also, if we tie the dolphins it means we very likely beat them and have tiebreaker. If broncos tie the chiefs, KC likely still has tie breaker. The net of this is that we have a (using OP numbers) 24% change of division and 24% of wildcard. The broncos on the other hand only have a 7% chance of catching the chiefs, but a 37% chance of getting a wildcard spot. The broncos are more likely to get a wildcard than us, as you suspected.

Miami would win division. They would have better division record.

Bill over boys, 35-32

Poyer and Hyde aren't at the levels they were at in their primes, but the defense is still notably worse when either are out. They may not be "arguably best safety pairing in the league", but they aren't a liability when on the field. Still both quality starters that have tremendous responsibility in an otherwise depleted secondary. I'd be comfortable with their skill levels going into next year, but unfortunately availability is becoming an issue.

Actually, there are many of them that are ceding the division.

I believe he was talking about the giants play calling.

I don't think that is true after today

Unfortunately, looks incomplete after another stellar Allen play

We were doing a lot better until epenesa's rib

We used them to preserve time for the O to have a drive and had to burn one on a Hyde injury

What did he mismanage?

The drive was going to happen. The int was on 3rd down. KC would have had another 20 yards to go after a punt, but they looked locked in that drive.

Brady said it was his mistake and he had to have an answer. That time he had an answer.

Got it on the 50, stalled on 40. Punted on 3rd and 9.

I had the same initial reaction, but the comment is true. Our current roster is healthy. We have vere few (none maybe?) of the "playing through it", "managing pain", "waiting until off-season for surgery", etc. We have a few critical pieces out for the season, but our 2023 roster for the rest of the year is healthier than most teams in week 14.

Not sure why the media is so hard on Josh, but neither of them need an excuse to be critical of them.

Hard not to agree with him

So you wouldn't consider the Bills' game against Philly "up to NFL standard"? Do you watch any NFL games?

Or it shows that when you lose half of your defense it takes a few weeks to figure ***** out

Not just Joe. Multiple people would agree that if the play had time to develop that the "right" option was to the outside. That doesn't mean it was an error by Allen. The Zero Blitz didn't allow enough time to make the read. Davis didn't realize that the play was a bust and didn't look back to see if the ball was coming hot. Brady rightly stated that coaching was the issue. There should have been a true hot route that didn't rely on a long developing option.

While including all turnovers makes sense, any total turnover count still hides some data. Using the same list that you provided, I tried to come up with a fair look at how likely someone is to turnover the ball and view on how likely they are to score a touchdown. Basically, the combination of sacks/rushes/receptions turn into "other touches". Fumble rate is lost fumbles on those touches. turnover rate is ints and fumbles out of all plays where the QB didn't hand off the ball (throw/scramble/rush/receive). touchdown rate is on the same basis as turnover rate. This is still not perfect, as it doesn't account for kneeldowns and arm punts, but more complete then any of the other views bouncing around today. I also wish I could find a publicly available breakdown of fumbles lost on sacks vs fumbles lost rushing, but no luck. Out of this grouping of active players Allen is tasked with the 2nd highest total touch count (43 times per game). Allen is in the elite of the league (Rodgers/Mahomes/Allen) with how frequently their touches turn into touchdowns. Allen's touches result in a turnover 2.4% of the time, which is on the higher end of the 2-2.5% grouping. I ran numbers for a few other active players not on this list and they tend to be 2.5% on average with several in the 3-4% range and a few under 2%. As an example of high turnovers on active players, Winston is at 3.7%. In conclusion, Allen touches the ball more times per game than most active quarterbacks, he scores touchdowns at a frequency that puts him at an elite level, and he turns over the ball around league average but at a higher frequency than many of the other elite players. In short, he is not at all representative of a "turnover machine", but he is also not a role model on elite ball security.

It's hard to upset when you are the favorite, which we've been in most games for years.

I'd agree that under most scenarios McD is still here next year. Losing out is one of the scenarios where he is probably let go

As of today 10 wins is like 50/50 if the loss is against an AFC team and 70/30 of the loss is against the cowboys.

Actually if we go 4-1 losing to Dallas is the best odds of playoffs at this point. With as lackluster as the AFC has turned out this year, we have near a 70% chance of landing a wildcard if we run the remaining AFC games. Beat the chiefs and we'll start doing the math on whether Miami is going to have anything to play for in week 18.