elijah

I see Tre and Diggs as locks, Hyde is likely, Edmunds and Poyer are possible, and Dawkins and Morse as very long shots

The only way Spencer Long doesn’t make it is likely a trade rather than a cut in my opinion and same with Trent Murphy. I don’t believe Duke Williams will make the roster, simply too much depth at receiver and Isaiah McKenzie will also have an uphill battle. I didn’t cast a vote because I think all 5 of those defensive players make the roster. A lot of these guys would only be cut for nothing other than cap space purposes — but we have the cap space and therefor don’t really need to cut many of these guys. If I were to cast a vote, I would go with Isaiah McKenzie and EJ Gaines. I’m an advocate for McKenzie to make the roster but I think ultimately Andre Roberts takes his roster spot due to the return ability.

Only two legitimate talents in the Bills Beat imo Erik Turner at Cover 1 is ridiculously smart and puts in the work but haven’t seen/heard him in a radio setting

@corta765 If I recall, you had very good and in depth schedule predictions last year. Do you have them anywhere this year?

I’m not saying that these guys will get cut.. But it’s a bit early in the process to call Barkley, Dimarco, Taiwan Jones, Tyler Kroft, Ty Nsehke, Roberts, Haushka or Norman as locks. All have good chances of making the team, but they’re all also very easily terminable and not core pieces

Vosean very well may impress this year and make Milano expendable

I was talking to someone who suggested doing 6yrs/$90M for Dawkins and making the guarantees very heavily front loaded and that struck me as a good idea as well

I’m worried about Dion’s contract because whatever it is I feel it’ll be overpaid, but there’s some positions that you’ll have to overpay for and LT ultimately is one of those. And if you have a second, I would take a look at the excel sheet or even just glance at Spotrac yourself. The rebuild is just about over and the cap is going to start tightening up in the coming years, while there’s ways to make it work, Beane can’t afford to be as loose with the salary as he’s been moving forward. Players need to get paid (White, Milano, Dawkins, Edmunds, Allen, Feliciano, etc.) and I know people here aren’t too big on looking forward, but you’ve got to have long term plans so you can re-sign these guys when the time comes. Part of those long-term plans might be to let a Milano walk do you have the cap to re-sign an Edmunds in the future.

I wrote an article on Cover 1 regarding the Bills future cap space (will link if the Mods approve? I'm not sure but it may be against the rules here as spam) and it shows a little bit of a tight cap moving forward after this off-season. Essentially, after re-signing Tre White, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano and accounting for rookies on the cap, the Bills are looking at roughly $6M of cap space in 2021 -- and that $6M is assuming that Milano takes a little bit of a discount. That's tight on the cap and while there are ways to get around it and create more cap, it's worth at least being aware of the possibility that one of Dawkins or Milano might not be retained next off-season. I'm curious as to which one Bills fans would rather retain if it does come down to choosing between them. As of right now, the market values listed on Spotrac are 4yrs/$57.5M for Dawkins and 4 years/$52M for Milano. Being a solid LT on the open market I think that Dawkins may command more, and I also think that Milano may command a little less. I'm not sure myself which one I would rather have and am curious how the site feels about it. On one hand, I personally wouldn't want to pay an average offensive tackle an elite rate in Dawkins. On the other hand, keeping the offensive line together will be crucial for the offense and Josh Allen while paying Milano $11M+ per year next to Edmunds who might make $15M+ per year once he gets paid is a lot for 2 linebackers. I did all of this work in Excel and attached the sheets here in case anyone wanted to play with it themselves. What say you? bills future cap space.xlsx

1.) Quinton Spain: 3yrs/$15M is the nicest hometown discount we’ve seen in years. I was adamant about improving the offensive line and unfortunately were sitting still, resigning Spain on such a deal is a solid consolation prize. 2.) Mario Addison: Old and overpaid? I see 39 sacks in 4 years, 11th most in the NFL, on essentially a year-by-year deal. Nearly half of the $30M comes in year one with very little guaranteed after. 3.) Stefon Diggs: Couldn’t put him first because I have to be able to say I had reservations about trading our 1st if it doesn’t workout in hindsight ? 4yrs/$46Mish for a top 15 receiver in the game that addresses our top need, you can’t be upset about that. Diggs should hopefully give our offense another element, although I want more improvement here still. 4.) Butler/Jefferson: Solid depth deals with guys players that the film guys like as much as Phillips and Lawson on cheaper deals than the overpaid Phillips/Lawson, the d-line should be much improved. 5.) Josh Norman: At first it was just a small $3M guaranteed and seemed very low risk-high reward, but now with minimal improvements amongst the offense in FA, this $6M contract will stick out if Norman doesn’t perform up to par. Without context, this is still a low-risk, high-reward deal that shouldn’t backfire. 6.) AJ Klein: I feel that you could’ve found a linebacker of Klein’s quality in the later rounds of the draft at just a portion of the cost, slight overpay here but McBeane love their locker room guys which Klein is said to be. 7.) Matakevich & Jones: Small contract special teams guys here, can’t not like it but there’s not too much to obsess about. I’m HOPING — and thinking that I’m right — that Beane doesn’t think Taiwan Jones isn’t part of the answer at RB.

We had an overall average group last year which is nice, but you can and should continue to try and improve. If the oline plays as it did last year, there shouldn’t be much of an issue. But there’s still a possibility than Ford doesn’t grow at all or Dawkins regressed, or Spain/Feliciano, who had career years, regress back to their mean. We had a solid group but coming into the off-season I wanted to see us continue to improve, and still want to see us improve.

And if he doesn’t progress, he may be a downfall of the offense. I wanted to see further offensive line improvements but unfortunately this far in with this little cap space and no 1st round pick, it seems like we know who our starters are

Cutting Murphy alone saves $7M, and he’s simply not needed. Between Hughes, Addison, Jefferson and Johnson, he’s getting overpaid at a position that has been rebuilt through FA and is loaded with depth. There’s no holes created by moving on from Murphy, and the $7M can be used at a position of bigger need like CB. In this scenario after cutting Lee Smith to save another ~$2.5M, you’re drafting a rookie who’s cap hit would be lower and could still fill Smith’s role, so no hole created. As for Long, it may be a bit counter-productive to cut him but you can save over $3M and for how little he saw the field last year that may be worth it. But at that point, cutting Long would be splitting hairs a little bit

I’m not sure we have the cap space or the assets to trade for CMac, and I’m not sure I would want to allocate that money to a RB even if we had the cap

Not exact numbers, but the point is that the stars and key contributors are there, now the depth is what’s needed to really lie this together and let them be a top unit

Incredible that we have the flexibility to do this and prepare for the future like this, the teams came a long way under Beane

Is Diggs enough to make this offense strong enough to make a Super Bowl run? Right now I see a top 20 offense that should be consistent enough to ride a stronger defense than last year to a playoff victory or two. I don’t see a top 10 offense that can bail the defense out 2 or 3 times or compete with KC/Baltimore en route to the Super Bowl. We know that Beane isn’t tone deaf at this point and we know that he’s aware when things need to be addressed, but we’re running out of cap space and lack a 1st round pick. Spotrac has us sitting around $25M cap space and $32M for the top 51, but that’s without Jefferson, Matavich & Taiwan Jones contracts factored in, so it’s closer to $15M & $22M. Cutting Murphy, Long and Lee Smith could bring that back up to around the $25M & $32M numbers. So, with that in mind, how do you want to see Beane round out the offense this offseason? I think a #2 RB, an improvement over Kroft as #2 TE, and a better #4 WR would pull the offense together into that top 10 unit. You can never have too much O-Line depth either. In my dream scenario, Jonathan Taylor/JK Dobbins last until the early 2nd where we can trade up. A WR like Travis Benjamin continues to slip in FA until they’re willing to sign for a value prove-it deal (1yr/$5M?) and TE can be addressed in the 3rd with a Hunter Bryant/Brycen Hopkins. What say you about where the offense is and where and where you want it to be?

Just because you don’t see this as a popular pick in the media this far doesn’t make it a bad pick. The injuries hurt, but this guy has elite length and a freaky twitch too him. He’s uber athletic and could very well and realistically go before Epenesa and Gross-Matos. The media isn’t always right come draft time, in fact rarely so, you can’t discredit a member of the media for going against the mainstream ideas. Watch the player yourself and form an opinion. Personally, I have Lewis above both Epenesa and Gross-Matos. He’s going to really impress at the combine and test off of the charts. It seems like a bad pick now because you haven’t seen him in a lot of 1 round mock drafts, but reality is that 1 round mock drafts paint a tough picture and can make some players start to seem higher in value than they are. those that watch and study the film on the prospects know that once you get out of the top 15-20, the next 20-40 guys are all very closely talented and essentially interchangeable, it’s all your preferred flavor at that point.

That guy was also traded for a 3rd and 5th round pick, not a 1st rounder. EDIT: That guy was also consistently a top 3 player at his position and probably a first ballot hall of famer if he didn’t tear his career apart this past year, 2 completely different levels of talent.

Last time we valued a super bowl victory over future cap space, we went 8-8 and 7-9 and we’re left in cap hell that set the franchise back 2 years and took 3 years to fully clean up. Super bowls are nice and the ultimate goal, but we have a staff that’s valuing sustainability and success at the same time. They’re showing you can do both by keeping the long-term cap space in the plans, let’s get on board as fans instead of writing it off. Do we want to look like the Rams, fall just short in one year and then completely come apart after, or the Patriots who get it done year in and year out? I dont know about you, but I think one of these are a clear and obvious choice.

Edmunds, Milano, Dawkins, Josh, Tre, Poyer, etc. are all guys that are going to need to get paid soon. Adding Golladay to the list doesn’t help, he expires after this season. The cap space is nice right now but it doesn’t last forever. We have a young core with most of our important players on their rookie contracts, these rookie contracts don’t last forever. Give me a number one who we have cost controlled for 4 years, not a number one with one year left and a $15M+ contract coming.

No. Draft offers more youth, some players seemingly with more talent, and a lot less money. The first round pick for X questions just don’t make much sense, especially with the WR depth this year.

100% agree with this. As part of my dream offseason, the Bills cut Barkley and Case Keenum walks from the ‘Skins to sign here as a backup. I don’t care if that means we’re paying our backup $5M-$6M a year. When you’re competing, as we are, and your QB’s physical, as Josh is, a backup QB is necessary every single year.

The hopes on Sweeney are too high here. He was a 7th rounder that flashed a little bit, he’s not someone to count on becoming a legitimate option. Also those wanting to sign Hooper are auctioning off a lot of money. Give me Olsen/Henry/Ebron on a short term deal and draft another TE somewhere between 3rd-5th round. Olsen/Henry/Ebron give you the short term, cheap option to bridge the position while Knox and the future rookie continue to develop. And Kroft has to be gone. Simply didn’t produce enough on such a team friendly contract to be willing to keep him.

O/U 9 is pretty high with this schedule and a one and done playoff trip. I see 7.5-8.5