Richard Noggin

For what it's worth (almost nothing) my pre-draft mock draft simulations very consistently presented me with Dalton Kincaid as the best offensive weapon who slid to our pick (or within justifiable range of our pick in a trade-up scenario). Prior to those couple weeks of late-night mock draft simulations, I didn't know much about Kincaid (beyond some smallish school intrigue compounded by no pre-draft workout metrics due to a back injury). It's probably searchable, my various shared mock drafts, but I'm somewhat certain that I picked Kincaid more often than many others who shared their own drafts. Sometimes people are just really good at football, and the pre-draft underwear olympics economy doesn't generate much engagement pointing out such unquantifiably positive opinions. Kincaid is the closest thing to Kelce (the TE) we've seen in recent memory, innit?

The obligatory FIFY

I mean, what do medical professionals know that good ol' common sense and obstinance don't?

It DOES make a difference. What the Bills pay Diggs over his first 5 years with the team and what they'd pay a 1st round WR over that same span is dramatically different. (In the 1st year or two we'd want to assume the production is also fairly different, favoring the acquired vet, but then again, the actual production of that #22 pick since entering the league really drives home the potential value in drafting the player instead of trading for him.)

I just think it's more complicated than if everything is technically healthy. And maybe by "100%" you're also considering strength and flexibility, but the surrounding muscles and really the entire body, needs time to get used to functioning all together again, and to get stronger and more flexible and more SYMMETRICAL again.

We are most of us always taking pay cuts.

Two noteworthy things from those offensive highlights: 1) Beasley's role was HUGE in keeping the offense on schedule when Diggs and Davis were taken away. And 2) McD going for it on 4th down early in the 4th quarter UP 10 points was also HUGE.

That first episode was ALL Rodgers kool-aid, as expected. Cringe-worthy at times. However, I have to admit that, despite my more recent years-long annoyance at the private citizen's questionable information-literacy and smugness, while half-watching the 1st episode I was reminded somewhat of my previous (circa 2nd decade of this millennia) opinion that Aaron Rodgers was the obvious best QB in the NFL. The guy had built himself into the best thrower in the league imho. Really spun it better than the rest with that abbreviated 3/4 delivery (very different from his college mechanics, to be sure). And he had sneaky good movement. And here we see some evidence that Rodgers might be re-invigorated, and for sure that his ego must be newly defended/supported in this new chapter of his career. It is worthy of some concern. The guy is no joke on the field when he cares. My hope is that his tolerance for the violence of the game is diminishing, and that his ability to avoid that violence is now more about scuttling plays, throwing it away, and turtling, rather than escaping the pocket and creating off-schedule as he once did often. Gone I hope are the days of him stepping up in the pocket, then back, then up again before releasing the ball. He was a maestro for a while there.

But the rest of his body can. Sort of. Takes time to stop favoring one side and to build back up all the symmetry and supporting soft tissue. In my eyes it's not really about re-injury and more about injuries from compensation. It's not a black-and-white ACL thing. We all know this. The ACL isn't really the issue anymore. But the rest of the interconnected soft tissues could be, if rushed. More time to ramp-up is better for the REST of Miller's lower half.

And yet my wages remain mostly the same.

Totally agree that Cam Lewis has a role as a bottom of an NFL roster DB who can flex between CB and S. Just sounded like you were suggesting he was doing well to cover Jefferson on that play when he was basically just in his spot and the ball was thrown to him. (Being in the right spot is obviously a good thing, of course.) Probably just parsing words too finely. I do that sometimes.

100% agree that Lewis' position flex is huge. Disagree on your assessment of that infamous play against Minn, he wasn't really "covering" Jefferson as in mirroring him off the line, as he was a safety on the play and the ball was essentially thrown to him. All he needed to do was "Knock it down!"

On top of currently solid reports and historical improvement rightly working in AJE's favor, Beane seems to lean into the upside of guys going into contract years. Only ways I'd imagine Epenesa NOT on the 53 are injury or trade. And while I'm not privy to the internal team projections for Basham, from my limited perspective I'd want Lawson on the squad over him this season (if I had to choose between them). Would definitely attempt to recoup a late-round pick for Boogie and get Ray and/or Jonathon on the PS. It's a puzzle with too many pieces (at the outer fringes).

Add to Locks: Harty, Settle, Bernard. Remove from Locks: Murray. Still leaves 4 spots to fill, with a need for at least 1 QB, 1 or 2 OTs, 1 S, 1 DE, and at least 1 or 2 WR (and VERY probably 1 TE). Also probably another RB (depends if Gilliam IS definitely a lock like we both think he is, as he tweens RB/TE). Which all essentially means I'm definitely very wrong about some of my picks. Really challenging year for roster decisions. A lot of bottom 3rd roster talent that WILL get scooped. I actually HATE trying to either predict what they'll do and/or IMAGINE what I'd do. And I normally find this to be one of the most fascinating parts of NFL football.

The vid above displays what I dig most about Phillips (and Lawson, while we're at it): they bring a demonstrably competitive and physical juice/swagger that the Bills haven't seen a ton of elsewhere under McD. The Bills haven't lost a ton of games since this current "run" started in 2019, but when they have, more often than not they've gotten bullied, especially at the line of scrimmage. I'd like to think Phillips and Lawson are role-playing parts of the solution to that ailment, both on the field and on the sideline.

I'll never forget 'Zo playing some transcendent, kind of old school MLB against the Jags in that 2017 Wildcard game. He was such a beast, and playing a role/position he really hadn't before. Here's hoping the Bills want to get back to being more multiple and matchup-specific in their personnel packages, alignments, and efforts to disguise.

He's giant, strong, and technically athletic as hell. But is he nimble and balanced and quick to react and flexible in the ways that make an OT consistently excellent? I wonder if there should be an athletic combine test for linemen that measures and quantifies athleticism when RETREATING? Sprinting forward and pivoting around cones and doing shuttle drills doesn't really capture how linemen earn their money and keep their QBs upright.

One (imperfect) solution to this, as we saw a bit last season, was keeping Dawson Knox inline instead. Cook has the kind of greasy speed and easy hands you don't want to keep bottled up in the backfield blocking, of course. But on an audible to max protect against pressure, or to occasionally keep a dedicated defender/spy occupied and inside the box while someone else gets behind them...you need him to be able to do the dirty work so his presence is NOT a tell or a handicap. Imagine if/when Kincaid could/can occasionally acquit himself as an inline pass blocker and allow Knox to get downfield instead... The ability to be multiple can be pretty helpful.

Not sure anyone who has started as many games as Shell could be technically worse than Brown. I don't say that with the kind of harsh judgment it might seem. Just the objective bottom line: Spencer Brown has NOT performed well in the NFL to date. He has traits, and potential, and personality, and works hard in the offseason (even going so far once or maybe twice to briefly MOVE IN WITH (if I remember correctly) a former 3X all-pro OT who was similarly athletic)...but due to injuries and unfortunately what looks like maybe a lack of footspeed and agility, the guy has struggled. Now, maybe like the underlying Gabe Davis narrative (that injuries have disrupted him more than we know and he's been a trooper to play through them), what happens this season will go a long way towards clarifying things one way or another. Was the back injury and reported lack of offseason training and practice reps THAT impactful last season? I can easily declare OT my least favorite position on the depth chart for 2023. I don't really care much about MLB in the full context of that defense. WR depth is a thing for many but there is some at least average depth behind Diggs now that Kincaid has entered the picture. And interior OL looks to be MUCH improved. DT? Adding Poona ford is a pretty big deal. DE? Definition of rotational depth (Floyd a sneaky good add). Et cetera. They've added some interesting talent everywhere but MLB and OT, in my eyes. Hopefully one of Shell or Doyle or that Gairage (sp?) person can add value in replacing or filling in for Brown and/or Dawkins. Feels thin out there.

This ain't about them.

That's not how being a Richard works.

Hey

General mobile google alerts and browser notifications/suggestions keep me from falling TOO far behind (with Meta/facebook/Twitter/X underperforming 2nd/3rd hand trolling/talking points) the affirmed scientific consensus in 2023. Haven't ever set up a super conscious and intentional information diet...but we should all be ready for any/all content to reach us individually at any time.

Even if you are correct more often than not, this kind of pettiness towards a 5th rounder is weird. Are people claiming that Shakir is some kind of hidden breakout talent? Or is he like just a valid WR depth and special teams R candidate with a lot of work to do? Shouldn't really be much talent assessment credibility on the line right about meow...

I know that you're referring to something even more "big" than moving up in the 1st round to draft a potential top-10 offensive weapon who happens to be the size of a tight end. But they did the thing I'm pointing out, which may, possibly, have the influence of a Hopkins-like move. Be interesting to compare the DHop and DKinc numbers at season's end.