SoTier

Can somebody please explain to me why AJ McCarron is being grouped and discussed as being close in stature with Cousins, Keenum, Bridgewater, and Bradford, all four of whom had at least 1 full season as starter? McCarron was a fifth round pick who has done nothing to distinguish himself in the NFL. He has played in all of 7 games in 2015, starting 3 and throwing 79 completions from 119 attempts for 6 TDs and 2 INTs. In 2016, McCarron played in 1 game and made no pass attempts. In 2017, he played in 3 games and threw 7 passes in 14 attempts with no TDs and INTs. That McCarron was almost traded to Cleveland doesn't improve his stature since all it does is prove that Cinci didn't think highly enough of him to keep him.

He'll be long gone by the draft. In case you've had your head in the sand, Washington has been a pretty crappy team except for Cousins, and he's been successful for several years on teams that lacked a lot of high level talent. QBs that succeed for 3+ seasons tend to have ability that survives through their careers. If Cousins doesn't turn out to be quite the "franchise QB" on a par with guys like Stafford or E Manning, he's also not likely to be the disaster that both Glennon and Osweiler turned out to be, either.

Cheaper options, maybe, but neither Keenum nor Foles can boast Cousins' record over several years, so the chances they crash and burn is a lot higher than Cousins doing so. QBs of the level of Glennon and Taylor were in the $18-$19 million a year bracket last year, so I think it's unlikely that any team is going to even consider offering Cousins < $20 million, and given that Alex Smith recently signed for $24 million/year, it's fair to say that $25-$30 million/a year is the current going rate for successful starting QBs in their primes. Cousins is certainly that. Denver, Phoenix, and maybe the Bills seem likely suitors since they're all teams that have potential to make the playoffs with reasonable upgrades, including at QB. If any of these believe they aren't likely to be able to get their QB in the draft, I could see them taking a run at Cousins. Cleveland might be as well but with the #1 and #4 picks in the draft, they seem likely to go the draft route. I'm not sure about the Jests. They have lots of cap space but is NYC Cousins' kind of town? Is the team good enough to be a playoff contender in a year or so? Where ever Cousins goes, he's going to get paid well.

There's lies, damned lies, and then there's statistics. A good OL protects the passer and opens holes for the runners. The Bills OL did that far worse in 2017 than in the previous 2 seasons with most of the same personnel, and against good Ds, they performed only marginally better than the horrible OLs fielded during the Jauron era.

When DTV increased prices in January, I dropped down a tier, which is not supposed to get ST. I had planned to upgrade in the fall, now I'm not sure. Since I've been a DTV/ST customer for several years, so we'll see how good a deal they offer before I decide.

More info on Tops and the Bloomberg story: Info on Potential Tops Bankruptcy

AND DRAFTING A TOP 4 QB HAS PROVEN TO BE EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL, TOO! Kyle Boller and Rex Grossman were the 3rd and 4th top QBs in 2003. JP Losman was the 4th of the top four QBs taken in 2004. Vince Young and Matt Leinart were the top two QBs taken in 2006. JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn were the top two QBs taken in 2007. Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman were the top 2 and top 3 QBs taken in 2009. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder were the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th top QBs taken in 2011. Robert Griffin III and Brandon Weeden were the 2nd and 4th QB taken in 2012. EJ Manuel was the top QB taken in 2013. Don't let reality intrude on your fantasy of the Bills drafting a QB Jesus.

Even Chautauqua County, which is much bigger population wise than Allegany County and two actual cities in Jamestown and Dunkirk, can't boast a Sonic ... Olean is in Cattaraugus County.

It doesn't matter how much draft capital the Bills have if the QBs available are only as good as the QBs taken in the first round between 2006 and 2012 not named Ryan, Newton, and Luck.

I used them as Bills specific examples of QBs who had either excellent physical or intangible traits but not enough of both to be successful. Feel free to use your own examples of first or even second round QBs who were "doomed" by their situations.

Austin Dillon, grandson of team owner Richard Childress, won the 60th Daytona 500 in the legendary #3 once driven by the late Dale Earnhardt ... on the 20th anniversary of The Intimidator's one and only Daytona 500 win. Dillon led only the last overtime lap in the a wreck filled race that saw most of the favorites wreck out. Dillon is the 9th different 500 winner in the last 9 years. Great start to the NASCAR season.

I disagree about the Bills QB depth chart because Taylor is a serviceable starter, and the Bills easily could upgrade their backup QB with a rookie drafted after the first round in 2018 whom might turn into a serviceable starter. Certainly drafting the wrong QB in the first round is infinitely worse than waiting a year or two to draft the right one.

If you look at the list of successful top 4 QBs, only Rivers and Ryan were drafted after #2. The other 12 success were #1s and #2s. Go high or stay home. In this scenario, I would be okay with them drafting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd on the off chance that lightning might strike.

Well said.

Why do you assume that if the Bills pass on the 2018 first round QBs that they won't draft one in 2019 or 2020? Is 2018 the last year that QBs are going to be available in the NFL draft?

This. NONE of the top QBs stand out from the others as to be even the consensus best QB in the draft much less the best player in the draft. All of these QBs have significant flaws. Taking a QB at 21 or 22 would be acceptable to me. Trading up a few spots (5 or 6) to take Baker Mayfield would be okay if the cost wasn't too much (giving up maybe 1 first and maybe a 3rd at most), but giving up the proverbial "farm" to move into the top five is setting the Bills up for failure in the future unless they hit the lottery like Philly looks to have done in 2016. Getting a QB on a par with guys like Bortles, Winston or Mariotta wouldn't be good enough IMO.

Good analysis. I will be happy if the Bills do both 1) & 2) under the evaluation paragraph. If they decide to pass on a QB in the first round and take somebody in the 2nd or 3rd, as long as they do it for the right reasons, I'm good with that.

This. It's NOT the system that makes the QB. If you draft the right QB, he'll likely outlast the current coaching staff and maybe even the GM.

Sorry, but it doesn't matter how "deep" you go, teams miss on QBs more frequently than other top ten positions, probably because the position requires much more in the way of intangibles than most other positions, and the guys who may have the physical ability don't necessarily have the intangibles like being able to read Ds, having good reaction time, and/or making good decisions (JP Losman) while the opposite is also common (Ryan Fitzpatrick). Well, "we" don't always get what we want. Getting a serviceable QB with the Bills drafting at 21 is realistically about the best the Bills can expect. The best QBs to come out of the bottom of the first round since 2000 are Chad Pennington (2001), Aaron Rodgers (2005), Joe Flacco (2018), and Teddy Bridgewater (2014). All the others drafted after pick #16 sucked. Trading up into the top ten doesn't guarantee a team drafting the next Jim Kelly either. In the last 10 years, the first ten picks have yielded these busts or just serviceable QBs: Mark Sanchez (2009), Jake Locker (2011), Blaine Gabbert (2011), Robert Griffin III (2012), Ryan Tannehill (2012), Blake Bortles (2014).

It's not a "chicken or egg" scenario. A team should always have an eye out for promising OLers in the draft, but excellent players at all the OL positions can frequently be found outside of the first round ... and even as UDFAs as Jason Peters has shown. Besides, the Bills OL is not nearly as bad as it has been in the past nor as bad as it looked in 2017 (despite PFF's statistical claims to the contrary). Improved play designs and blocking schemes that better suit the current OLers' talents better is likely to make the OL better. Miller had a horrible year last year, but as a young OLer, he might rebound as he was decent in 2016. If Glenn can get healthy and the Bills keep him, then they can move Dawkins over to RT to replace Mills. With Incognito at LG, all they'll need is solid center, which might be Groy. The Bills would then need to add youth and depth on the OL, but they could fill that with Day 2 or 3. The Bills OL isn't a great OL, but it was serviceable in both 2015 and 2016 with most of the same players. Quality QBs, OTOH, aren't often found outside of the top ten of the first round, seldom found in the bottom half of the first round, and rarely found outside of the first round. Currently, there are a handful of non-first rounders as legitimate starters in the NFL: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Of those, the first three are great QBs. Dalton and Cousins are good ones. The others have shown promise but need to either improve their play or prove that their short-term success is sustainable. So, when a team has or acquires a high first round pick and they don't have Aaron Rodgers or Matt Ryan under center, then they should seriously look at the QBs available in the draft. That doesn't mean that they have to draft one because as 2013 proved, sometimes all the QBs available are duds or the one you want is gone as in 2004. They have to be open to taking one if they think that one of the kids available can be the next Aaron Rodgers or Matt Ryan, however, even if they have an Andy Dalton under center (which is why I would be uncomfortable in signing Cousins -- his contract will preclude the Bills from drafting a younger prospect for most of the length of his contract). One thing the Bills cannot do is draft a first round QB just to appease the fan base which is what I think they did in both 2004 and 2013. Drafting the wrong guy is much more costly than passing on a good one because teams commit to that first rounder for 3-5 years. If you think not, consider that they could have drafted Aaron Rodgers if they hadn't traded up for JP Losman the year before.

I think that something similar happened to Aaron Rodgers as well. He was supposed to be the #1 pick, but I believe that there were vague rumors floating about him, too, and that sank his draft stock.

The "logical expectation" for a fifth round QB is a possible backup. Plain and simple. Peterman fell to the fifth round because he doesn't have a good enough arm to be a quality NFL starter. He doesn't appear to have the "football intelligence", especially good judgement, that was supposed to make him an adequate NFL backup, either. Now, maybe part of his poor showing in 2017 can be laid at the feet of the Bills coaching staff who didn't prepare him well, but Peterman failed when given the opportunity, however brief. If the Bills draft a QB in 2018, my guess is that Peterman is history. Dalton is better than 3 of the 4 QBs taken ahead of him (Griffin, Gabbert, and Ponder). With the right support around him, he can do pretty well ... and for a second round pick, Cinci didn't pay too much for him. If the Bills took Rudolph at 21 or 22 and got as good a QB as Dalton, that wouldn't be terrible ... unless they passed on the next Drew Brees or Russell Wilson.

Now??? My complaint about all of you "we have to draft a QB in the first round" advocates is exactly because NONE of you talk in specifics! You just want a QB in the first round, and who that is doesn't matter to you. IMO, none of the QBs mentioned as top prospects are good enough to warrant even thinking of trading up more than a few spots ... say, from 21 to 16, and even then, if I was going to consider doing it, it would only be for Mayfield. IMO, both Winston and Mariota seem likely to become "coach killers" -- just good enough to keep coaches hopeful but not quite good enough to consistently win with ... much like Cutler and Tannehill. Drafting QBs has become even more random because so many college teams don't run pro style offenses and therefore scouts don't see collegiate signal callers practicing the skills that pro QBs need to have. I think this is the reason that we've seen a few more QBs succeed from lower rounds ... scouts were skeptical of their skill sets because they didn't see them demonstrate those skills all that much.

Was Beane scouting Rudolph or somebody else? There are probably other players on the two teams that have NFL potential.

The general assumption of the "DRAFT A QB IN THE FIRST ROUND" crowd is that doing so will result in a franchise QB on a par with Kelly despite the reality that in both 2004 and 2013 that didn't happen. I agree. What's most troubling is that all of the tops QBs have serious flaws to the point that there's no consensus #1. In both 1983 and 2004, Elway and E Manning were considered the consensus #1 picks in long before February. It's the consensus #1 picks who are the most likely to be successful by a huge margin: hitting about 80% success since 2000 whereas pick through 2-16 are about 50% and 17-32 only around 20%. That's usually what happens in most drafts: 1 good/great QB (usually the guy who goes #1) and any other first rounders being busts. Occasionally a couple of QBs come out of the first round. When that happens, it's usually like 2005 (Smith & Rodgers), 2008 (Ryan & Flacco) or 2012 (Luck & Tannehill) -- one great one and one okay one. What's interesting about 2011 and 2012 is that good/great QBs came out of rounds after the first, which rarely happens: Dalton in 2011 and Wilson and Cousins in 2012. 2014 might be another year with both Carr and Garoppolo from the 2nd, but Carr struggled in 2017 and Garoppolo has made all of 7 starts, it's early yet to judge their careers.