SCBills

Jon Ralston is predicting, based on the EV data in Nevada and his connections in both campaigns, that Kamala Harris is going to need Independents to break for her by about 4-5% to have a chance at this point.

You mentioned low propensity.. and that’s the key. Trump wins if he turns out low propensity voters. Rogan’s audience is men, under the age of 50. Trump is obviously their choice, but he needs to stay top of mind to make sure they do what they normally don’t do as low propensity voters… and that is to take the time to go vote. The second part of going on Rogan for 3 hours is to hope some undecideds tune in for a bit and realize that he’s not Hitler reincarnate and is doing a long form discussion that the other choice is apparently incapable of doing.

Harris ads in Georgia right now are hilarious. Dudes in wrangler jeans, flannels and trucker hats talking about how Trump only cares about rich people. Country music twanging in the background.

If you check out the polls thread, I have a lot of breakdowns of the PA EV. Quick summation: Some Dems in PA who study data believe that they need a +500k firewall heading into Election Day. As of the most recent update, Dems are at about +373k with a current differential of D +132k in requested ballots outstanding. In recent days, R returns and requests have begun to slow the D numbers and it’s uncertain if they will hit, what is now, a best case scenario of +505k Biden had double that in 2020 but that was during Covid and we know Dems heavily relied on mail in vote. Since 2022, R’s have registered a couple hundred thousand new voters.. they are also low propensity voters. Will they turn out? Will they get to 500k? Is 500k enough? True toss up right now.

Trump, currently based on raw EV data, looks really good in NC, GA, AZ and NV. NV really only matters if Trump somehow wins NE-2 and loses all 3 rust belt swing states. That would trigger a tie. As it stands, Trump probably only needs to win one of the Rust Belt swing states or the longshot of Virginia or New Hampshire (which have some close polls coming out).

There are no pro-life candidates in this years election, Trump/Vance are as close as it gets and I’m open to compromise politically, but testimonies like this are why I will always be on the side of fighting for life..

Underrated, but Vance is going on Tim Dillon’s podcast as well.

Agreed.

Harris desperately needs the black vote turnout to be higher than this. I see some Dems in the comments pointing out the gender disparity, and I get that, but white women favor Trump in polling, and especially down South.

Surely Trump isn’t going to win Virginia… -WaPo refused to endorse -Polling shows a tight VA race -Dems attacking Youngkin over voter rolls Again, surely Trump isn’t going to win Virginia… but everyone seems to be acting like he can.

Oliver, Carter, all of our linebackers, our safeties… All these injuries up the spine of our defense and it just so happens to be where we’re undersized…

I just posted the updated number as of an hour ago. Best case scenario with outstanding ballot requests is D +505k. Thats right at the firewall number. No guarantee it gets there, and if it does, we wait and see if it’s enough. Cant compare to 2020 with Covid and that’s where Biden had double the mail-in EV lead. And can’t compare to 2022 midterms for a myriad of reasons but also in that Republicans have registers hundreds of thousands of new voters in PA since then. I’ll say that I’m sure Harris folks are breathing a sigh of relief (if the 500k number is an accurate firewall) given how EV has gone everywhere else.

If they thought she was going to win, they’d endorse her. Im certainly not saying Trump is a lock, but every “vibe” metric is pointing that way. Fully realize though that the Democrat ground game can still win this.

Some PA Dems think +500k is the firewall number needed by Election Day Best case scenario is now +500k

If we trade for a DT, it’s not going to be because Carter is going to miss a few weeks. They have Oliver, Jones, Johnson and will likely rotate in Logue as DT4. Kick in Smoot on pass downs etc.. Im all for trading for a DT though, but not because of this news.

He was arguably our best DT in recent weeks… At least it’s not long term. Just be healthy for the playoffs for once and we can handle the nonstop 2-4 week injuries this team keeps getting.

Disregarding cliche buzzwords and whatnot.. here is my true worry with Kamala Harris as someone who isn’t living paycheck to paycheck and has the economy as a concern. 1) Kamala Harris is part of the Administration & political party that pushed for vaccine mandates and vaccine passports during Covid. Pushed for lengthy lockdowns and consolidating power at the bureaucratic level. If another covid type emergency, whether a virus, terror attack, something unforeseen etc., were to occur, they would do it again. They don’t learn and want to memory hole what happened. This is the instinctual response of the left in a crisis. It just is. Collective good greater than individual liberty, but they continue with that rationale even when the collective good becomes a fallacy. 2) Censorship. Only one side continually calls for censorship and suppression of narrative and stories they don’t like. If Elon didn’t purchase X, we’d be in a very different world. And due to that, he has become a political target of far too many on the left. We see what’s happening with speech laws in Europe and I know that wouldn’t happen under Trump/Vance … I am concerned of the slow creep towards that style crackdown on speech by Harris/Walz.. as Walz is on video attacking the right to free speech under false context. He doesn’t even understand the law. And they are party that at its core, don’t believe in the right to free speech any longer. They use terms like misinformation & disinformation to attack language they simply disagree with. They cite experts as means to censor opposing thought and time & time again, those experts are proven wrong. Covid, Hunters laptop and on and on. 3) Pathway to Citizenship & the Border. They saw how this model worked to make California a one party state and want to do it nationwide. I am not for deporting a family that has been here for decades and has committed no crimes (beyond being here unlawfully), but there do need to be deportations of those coming here to commit crimes or abuse our welfare system with no plans to contribute to society. And if Harris is elected and able to legalize millions of undocumented migrants, the electorate and our American culture is at risk of forever changing. I also don’t trust her in the border. They went back to some Trump era EO’s because it’s election season. But I don’t, for one instant, believe they won’t go back to pseudo-open borders. The party isn’t run by Kamala Harris … it’s run by a machine, and one of the main goals of that machine is to do what was done under Biden. So, I’ll not speak of the economy, or the fact that as a straight whiten man, I feel the Democrat establishment loathes me and its fervent followers hate what I am… Ill just leave you with those 3 bullet points as to why I’m voting for Trump/Vance to stop the machine. And if they don’t, at the very least, they slow down the rapid descent into a new America with unchecked government power, expansive control over our digital speech and the collapse of any unifying culture to bond us. You fear one man will be able to govern with unchecked power. I fear an entire bureaucratic machine being able to do so.

I’ll give credit to Harris for going on Shannon Sharpe’s podcast Monday. I would’ve also given her credit for going on Charlemagne’s show as well, but he’s turned out to be pretty disappointing recently for a guy who prides himself on being somewhat of a free thinker. Thing is though.. she should’ve done these weeks/months ago. Going into the final full week and she’s still trying to consolidate/energize black voters… specifically black men.. not ideal.

ALL IN doesn’t mean being reckless with the future. So far, I’d say we’re operating like the Chiefs.. a Super Bowl contender year in/year out, who typically draft well and make decisions that allow themselves to compete for a Championship every year. Obvious counter point is we have no Super Bowl trophies and that team has a Chris Jones on Defense. Without Chris Jones, we have the same defense. From listening to Joe B breakdown Rousseau’s success on his preferred side.. I think we have two potential avenues to get a Chris Jones. 1) Let Rousseau play primarily on his preferred side and tell Von he has to rotate in on the other side when Rousseau is on the field. Then see if he can make the jump. 2) Explore the trade market and trade what likely starts with two premium picks, at minimum. Andy Reid & Spags are a big difference between the Chiefs and Bills right now, but we know that’s not changing. What can change is player personnel. And the difference between the Chiefs and Bills in terms of the roster is Chris Jones. And it’s been that way for years.

It’s a long form podcast. Lex Fridman, Theo Von etc all do similar stuff. I’ll listen to a 90 minute discussion on ayahuasca… and I’d never do it, but I’m fascinated by the phenomena of people all seeming to visit a similar spirit realm with the same DMT elves and hallucinatory figures that show them things about their life.

Make Canada Great Again?