ChiGoose

Agreed. It’s absolutely shocking. I was expecting something around Trump +8. I found the article with a deep dive interesting: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how If she’s found something, it appears it’s Harris with a devastating 20-point lead with women combined with a surprisingly strong performance with voters aged 55+ at 2-points over Trump. It’s a big if, but if she’s right, and those numbers play out nationally, we’re looking at Harris being closer to 400 EVs than 300. It would be stunning

I’m having a hard time believing this. She’s usually the best but if she’s right, this race is already over. We’ve been seeing evidence of herding lately but Seltzer doesn’t herd so this is interesting.

Yeah, makes sense now why he’s been hitting up large cities like going to MSG.

Woof.

For one, we know it wasn’t staged.

This time, when we cheat, we should probably consider some of the down ballot races. It was really embarrassing that we put up this giant, intricate network involving hundreds to thousands of people and nobody thought we should cheat at the Senate and House races last time. We should make sure that's on the agenda for the next Zoom call.

I really wouldn't trust EV data to tell us anything. Could be that the GOP is doing really well, bringing in new voters who are voting early. Could be that the GOP is cannibalizing their election day vote. Their change in message around mail-in and early vote might mean the same overall number will vote but some are voting early instead of on election day (meaning they'll have less turnout on ED than expected) Could be that a lot of the registered GOP voters are Haley voters casting ballots for Harris. In the data, they'd show as Republican voters, but would be adding to Harris' total Otherwise, I think I mostly agree with you. It seems like it's gonna come down to PA turnout and it's way too close call. There's a lot of people who seem to have a high level of confidence that it's going to swing their way, but they're just telling on themselves.

I've never said he was. Just found the cognitive dissonance of "He's not a fascist. He should use the military to round up everybody in DC. He's not a fascist" by a supporter to be funny.

Four events in NC, three in PA, and one each in VA, GA, and MI to close out. Wondering why so much time in NC?

Another woman dies due to the post-Dobbs laws pushed by the “pro-life” crowd. They should probably change their descriptor as their body count rises…

If Trump wins and launches his deportation of illegal immigrants, is he going to deport Elon Musk? Elon Musk worked in US illegally in 1995 after quitting school – report "[T]he world’s wealthiest individual was almost certainly working in the US without correct authorization for a period in 1995 after he dropped out of Stanford University to work on his debut company, Zip2, which sold for about $300m four years later. Legal experts said foreign students cannot drop out of school to build a company even if they are not getting paid." Oh, and here's a video of his brother admitting that they were violating immigration laws. If he lied about this on his citizenship application, he could be eligible for denaturalization. I'm assuming MAGA is going to be very concerned and upset about this...

At this point, the polls aren’t gonna tell us much. Early vote data will tell us less. This is going to come down to the wire.

"I find it interesting but I am skeptical" is a good place to be for cellphone tracking data. It definitely has uses, which is why law enforcement and journalists use it. But it has significant pitfalls as well. It's not accurate to a very specific degree which can cause confusion on where someone actually is, especially in a dense urban area (are they in the FBI office, the Starbucks next door or the McDonald's across the street?). It's also subject to bad data. As far as I can tell, a lot of it is based on ad tracking from apps. The quality of this data varies wildly and can actually be fraudulent if you have some apps just faking data for clicks and dollars. Professionals can overcome these issues by using other investigative techniques, but partisans basing claims solely on the data aren't being honest about its limitations. And when the *proof* they provide of their claim is just a screenshot of an Excel document with no underlying source of the data, no context, no proof they even have cellphone data, and no supporting evidence, there's no reason to believe there's really anything there but partisan hackery.

Just a reminder, in addition to Musk, Trump outsourced his GOTV to Charlie Kirk…

Gotta love how easily MAGA falls for it. Every single time. Most gullible people on the planet. Even with these lines, couldn't tell it was a satire: "You called us garbage and in order to prove that we aren't garbage, we got a truck that hauls garbage, does that sound like something garbage would do, would be to drive around in a truck that hauls garbage?" "You can't call a group of people garbage unless it's meant to be funny and in that case those people need to stop being so soft. Maybe get a sense of humor. But if you call me garbage, that's offensive." "I'm gonna show up to the polls wearing a garbage bag to show you what us white trash can do and they're gonna rename election day garbage day 'cause we're gonna be taking out the trash. Which is you. Even though I'll be the one wearing the garbage bag." Maybe try clicking on his profile where his bio says comedian and he has a bunch of videos trashing Trump... How long until Don Jr. or other MAGA leaders are posting this unironically as well?

This whole phone gps thing is just astrocharts for incels. “Look! There are numbers on an excel sheet! It has to be true!”

If you are in line to get groped by Donald Trump, STAY IN LINE

If it comes out to turnout, you gotta think the side that invested heavily in GOTV has the edge over the side that outsourced it to the man with the smallest face and the South African human trafficker.

Would love to see Dukakis’ reaction to watching this

If Harris wins, a decent amount of the credit will go to Trump outsourcing GOTV to Musk.

A Woman Died After Being Told It Would Be a “Crime” to Intervene in Her Miscarriage at a Texas Hospital "The fetus was on the verge of coming out, its head pressed against her dilated cervix; she was 17 weeks pregnant and a miscarriage was “in progress,” doctors noted in hospital records. At that point, they should have offered to speed up the delivery or empty her uterus to stave off a deadly infection, more than a dozen medical experts told ProPublica. But when Barnica’s husband rushed to her side from his job on a construction site, she relayed what she said the medical team had told her: “They had to wait until there was no heartbeat,” he told ProPublica in Spanish. “It would be a crime to give her an abortion.” For 40 hours, the anguished 28-year-old mother prayed for doctors to help her get home to her daughter; all the while, her uterus remained exposed to bacteria. Three days after she delivered, Barnica died of an infection." *** "In a state that hadn’t banned abortion, Barnica could have immediately been offered the options that major medical organizations, including international ones, say is the standard of evidence-based care: speeding up labor with medication or a dilation and evacuation procedure to empty the uterus. “We know that the sooner you intervene in these situations, the better outcomes are,” said Dr. Steven Porter, an OB-GYN in Cleveland. But Texas’ new abortion ban had just gone into effect. It required physicians to confirm the absence of a fetal heartbeat before intervening unless there was a “medical emergency,” which the law did not define. It required doctors to make written notes on the patient’s condition and the reason abortion was necessary. The law did not account for the possibility of a future emergency, one that could develop in hours or days without intervention, doctors told ProPublica. Barnica was technically still stable. But lying in the hospital with her cervix open wider than a baseball left her uterus exposed to bacteria and placed her at high risk of developing sepsis, experts told ProPublica. Infections can move fast and be hard to control once they take hold. The scenario felt all too familiar for Dr. Leilah Zahedi-Spung, a maternal-fetal medicine specialist who used to work in Tennessee and reviewed a summary of Barnica’s records at ProPublica’s request. Abortion bans put doctors in an impossible position, she said, forcing them to decide whether to risk malpractice or a felony charge. After her state enacted one of the strictest bans in the country, she also waited to offer interventions in cases like Barnica’s until the fetal heartbeat stopped or patients showed signs of infection, praying every time that nothing would go wrong. It’s why she ultimately moved to Colorado."

Well that is certainly a new approach to voter engagement. https://x.com/jdcmedlock/status/1851655263092101355?s=46

Except that non-citizens voting rarely ever happens despite what politicians claim. It's just a boogeyman to convince people there's fraud when they lose. Even the conservative Heritage Foundation could only find 77 instances of non-citizens voting in a 24 year period. Another study found that out of 23.5 million votes in 40 jurisdictions in 2016 found a total of 30 non-citizens voting. (source) Meanwhile, some of the tools used for voter purges have had false-positive rates north of 90%. The risk of scores of non-citizens registering to vote and successfully voting in the 90 days prior to the election is infinitesimal. It's far more likely that you end up accidentally purging eligible voters from the rolls.