ChiGoose

The Shining. Excellent movie.

If the Dems were able to steal the election in 2020 when Trump was president, why would Republicans even waste energy voting now that the Dems have the White House? I mean, the Dems will clearly just determine this election ahead of time, locking up the White House, Senate, House, and whatever state level offices are up right now, right?

Alabama, Mississippi, New Hampshire, and South Dakota.

There’s unfortunately an interest in making it hard to count all of the votes on Election Day. State laws vary on how to handle mail-in ballots but they generally fall into a handful of categories: 1. Ballots are processed and counted ahead of Election Day but results are not released until Election Day 2. Ballots are processed before Election Day but counting of the ballots begins on Election Day 3. Processing cannot begin until Election Day and counting begins on Election Day 4. Processing cannot begin until Election Day. Counting cannot begin until polls close on Election Day States using methods 1 or 2 are more likely to count enough votes to determine a winner on Election Day. States using methods 3 or 4 may take into the middle of the night or even several days to determine a winner if there are a lot of mail-in votes or the race is close. Easy solution would be for states like PA to change their process from method 3 to method 1 or 2

I agree with this and also caution against reading early vote numbers as being indicative of outcomes for either side. It’s just not very predictive.

Now I’m worried you’re hallucinating. Yet another thing I never said. There are better ways to secure the border than a big dumb ineffective wall.

Getting actual up to date data on how many people come through illegally versus those who could have come in legally but did so illegally versus border encounters versus border apprehensions versus expulsions isn't always easy to find. Since you seem particularly activated by this issue, I thought you might have an answer.

How many millions of illegals have entered the country in the last 3.5 years?

Does Open Borders mean something other than borders that are open? Maybe it needs a different name then...

Borders that are open. What do you think open borders means?

Note how I didn't make such a claim, but you assume I did. More evidence for the poor rot that seems to have infected your brain.

Something only a mouth breather could possibly believe.

Oh, because I don't get my information by staring at a tv with my mouth agape, drool running down my chin. The Dems consistently voted in favor of border funding until some idiot decided that the only solution to the border was a big dumb expensive wall that would never work and cost an insane amount of money. But because they don't want to light money on fire for that, the talking heads say they want an open border. MAGA then eats it up because it makes them feel good. Regardless of what policies or philosophies used to be considered conservative, MAGA has redefined the movement. Conservative is now defined as there being no distance between one's tongue and Trump's prostate. Open Borders is now defined as supporting anything at the border that isn't a big stupid expensive wall that's doomed to fail.

Amazing that you guys still buy the open borders crap. Clear signal that the internet has rotted your brain.

Gotta love how MAGA continually tells on themselves. They can’t defend their own choices, they know they are the bad guys so they just point at others because they have no principles of their own.

Trump’s favorite president when he was little was apparently Ronald Reagan, who assumed office when Trump was in his mid-thirties. Also, Lincoln should have stopped the Civil War even though states seceded and created the Confederacy before Lincoln took office.

I see that everyone's priors were confirmed by the interview, regardless of which side they are on. Anyone have any polling or focus groups from swing voters or Trump-skeptical GOP voters on how they felt the interview went?

I honestly wonder what the bureaucratic / administrative costs of means testing for school lunches would be against the cost of just giving everyone food. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was easier and cheaper to just to give it to every kid instead of trying to determine who qualifies.

Just checking in again. How are we doing with that whistleblower?

Right after that, I said I wasn’t a big fan of the show. I don’t think I’ve really followed it since the Will Ferrell years. Most of what I see these days is clips that break through on social media. They clearly have a left bias, but the idea that them parodying Harris means anything other than they’re trying to make jokes is a tremendous stretch. I’m sure there are other examples of them parodying Dems as more recently. Didn’t they spend years rotating through different people just to try to get a parody of Biden? Think they landed it with Carvey based on the Family Feud sketch. EDIT: after a quick google, here’s a bit from 2017

It feels like a lot of people here get their views of left leaning organizations not from the organizations themselves but from others that oppose them, giving them a distorted view of reality. SNL is no stranger to parodying Dems (remember “lockbox”?). It would be weird if they didn’t poke some fun at Harris. I’m not the biggest fan of the show but I did see the Family Feud bit on social media and thought it was pretty good.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the ultimate grifter hired a grifter to run his campaign. Trump’s Campaign Manager Has Raked in an Insane Amount of Money Some highlights: Chris LaCivita has earned a staggering sum of more than $22 million in just the past two years as Trump’s adviser. LaCivita made $19 million in 2022 as a “strategic consultant” for two Trump-aligned super PACs. He’s continued to earn more through Trump’s 2024 campaign with the help of generous cuts on his campaign ads, and he will receive another $150,000 bonus if Trump wins the election. LaCivita has also received upfront payments for his services that have amounted up to $75,000 a month for “voter contact consulting,” Trump’s other co-campaign manager, Susie Wiles, is a volunteer. Harris’s campaign manager is paid $13,442 a month LaCivita’s consulting firm—which has no website and is headquartered in LaCivita’s home—had earned $3 million from the race and could collect another $5 million more by November Last year, an “opposition research” memo put forth by a super PAC backing Governor Ron DeSantis accused LaCivita of “cashing in on Trump” for “personal enrichment,” They found that LaCivita pocketed $15.7 million and $4 million respectively from two of Trump’s super PACs during the 2022 midterms.

Unskewing the polls is just hopium.

Senate looks awful for the Dems. Picking out specific polls because they show what you want is not a good way to judge the race. Better to use polling averages. Current breakdown is 51-49 (four independents are aligned with the Dems). Manchin and Tester are almost certainly going to lose, which gives you 51-49 GOP if everything else holds. To prevent it, you need at least one Dem pickup (hoping Harris wins presidency and Walz can be tiebreaker in 50-50 senate) but you probably want two. Of the remaining races, it's not great news according to polling averages: Seats Dems are defending: WV: (Not enough polls for a model but certain GOP pickup) MT: R+5.4 OH: D+2.3 PA: D+2.3 MI: D+3.9 WI: D+4.2 PA: D+4.6 AZ: D+7.4 MD: D+8.6 NV: D+9.2 NM: D+10.4 MN: D+11.3 VA: D+12.9 NY: D+21.1 CA: D+22.6 MA: D+23 CT, DE, HI, ME, NJ, RI, VT, and WA : (Not enough polls for a model but certain Dem retention) Potential Pickups (Currently GOP seats): NE: R+0.6 TX: R+4 FL: R+4.8 MO: R+10 ND: R+23.4 IN, MS, TN, UT, and WY: (Not enough polls for a model but certain GOP retention) I don't know how we can look at that and say it's looking good for the Dems. Especially because we're not sure Osborn would caucus with the Dems if he wins in Nebraska. Even if Harris wins, we're almost certainly looking at GOP senate control. The question is will it be more 51-50 or maybe something like 54-46.